CHIEFS OF MISSION ON ELECTIONS, DELTA SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000112

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: CHIEFS OF MISSION ON ELECTIONS, DELTA SECURITY

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Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. On January 17, the Ambassador met with a
small group of Chiefs of Mission (COMs) to discuss
preparations and outlook for the April elections and the
security situation in the Delta. All present agreed that
preparation for a credible April election is deficient,
though it was noted that the state of preparations to date is
not appreciably different than for the 2003 elections and has
improved in the last few weeks. The Chief of the EU
elections monitoring team noted that internal deliberations
continue over whether to send a team and of what size and
composition. COMs voiced concern over security in the Delta,
noting that the situation has grown demonstrably worse since
the beginning of this round of hostage-taking a year ago.
The COMs agreed that the April elections provide an
opportunity to restore confidence in the federal government's
ability to address the concerns of the Delta people. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On January 17, the Ambassador met with Chiefs of
Mission (COMs) and DCMs from the EU, UK, French, Italian,
Japanese, Dutch, German, Finnish, and Swedish missions to
discuss preparations for the April elections and continued
deterioration of the security situation in the delta. The
meeting was one of a series of such meetings in the lead up
to the elections.

ELECTIONS PREP: POOR, BUT NO WORSE THAN '03
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3. (C) Several COMs commented they have seen INEC
registration sites and even posters encouraging registration
in recent weeks -- a marked improvement from a month ago.
Despite this increased visibility, however, all remained
concerned that with only two weeks left to register voters,
less than half of the voters are registered (INEC claims 30
million out of more than 60 million are registered). The
Italian Ambassador expressed concern that there has been no
indication of the potential damage done by a reported fire in
an INEC computer room and INEC has been unwilling to respond
to questions about the fire.


4. (C) The EU DCM was accompanied by the head of an EU
elections monitoring team, Andrew Bruce, currently on a
preliminary assesment visit to Nigeria. Bruce indicated that
the decision to send a team, much less its size and
composition, is still under consideration. He told the
Ambassador the EU will likely consider 10-12 experts
stationed long-term in Abuja (arriving as early as March 1)
and another 30-40 in outlying areas. Bruce said he has
"serious concerns" with the state of preparations; however,
he has not shared those concerns with the GON and indicated
his report will be internal. On a positive note, Bruce said
political parties with which he has met are committed to
staying in the race, even if they perceive serious problems
with the voters register.


5. (C) Several COMs voiced concern over rumors that the House
of Assembly may take up a bill to postpone elections to
August. (NOTE: Embassy contacts within the House have denied
knowledge of any such bill in the works.) The Japanese
Ambassador said his contacts told him that National Assembly
members sometimes float ideas through the media to determine
public sentiment before introducing them. He indicated he
does not believe the move to postpone elections comes from
within the Villa and, in fact, he believes Obasanjo is
prepared to step down in May.


6. (C) The Dutch Ambassador expressed concern that statements
issued following the April 14 gubernatorial and state
assembly elections (expecting they will be critical) may push
the GON to restrict the ability of international observers to
monitor the April 21 presidential and national assembly
elections. There was agreement that a carefully worded
preliminary statement after the April 14 poll, focusing on
areas that can be improved over the short term and without
specifics on deficiencies, followed up by a more detailed
final report after the presidential elections, would be
advisable.

DELTA SECURITY CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE
--------------

7. (C) All present expressed serious concern about the

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continued violence in the Delta and agreed that the situation
is worse than a year ago when the current round of
hostage-taking started. The Finnish DCM expressed
frustration that the federal government is "doing nothing" to
address the situation.


8. (C) The Dutch Ambassador said an attack on a ferry en
route to Bonny Island has left 2 Dutch dead and several more
injured. The Italian Ambassador reported three Italian and
one Lebanese employee of Agip, taken hostage on December 7,
are still being held. (Note: One of the three Italian
hostages was freed January 17 as a "goodwill gesture"
according to media reports.) He indicated he personally
intervened to stop a Nigerian military plan to attack the
village where the hostages were being held for fear the
hostages would be killed in the skirmish. The kidnappers'
demands remain more political than monetary and he said the
kidnappers are adept at using the Italian media to further
their cause. He indicated several Italian reporters want to
come to Nigeria; however, the Ministry of Information is
refusing to agree to their entry. The Japanese Ambassador
said he plans to visit Bonny Island for the opening of a
petroleum facility that employees Japanese nationals, but he
is concerned about security. (Note: Shell Oil has offered
the use of its helicopter; the Japanese Ambassador accepted.)

HOLDING OUT HOPE FOR THE DELTA
--------------


9. (C) Despite the poor preparations for elections and the
current situation in the Delta, the COMs held out the hope
that credible elections in April provide the best opportunity
for the federal government to restore confidence in its
ability to address the concerns of the Delta people. That
credible elections take place this spring may be even more
imperative as the situation in the Delta deteriorates.
CAMPBELL