NIGERIA: SCENESETTER FOR A/S FRAZER'S MAY 28-30

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001056

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2017
TAGS: PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SCENESETTER FOR A/S FRAZER'S MAY 28-30
VISIT

REF: ABUJA 1020

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Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) U.S. Embassy Abuja warmly welcomes Assistant
Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer and

SIPDIS
Special Assistant Fatuma Sanneh, who will visit Nigeria for
the May 29 presidential inauguration. Your trip comes during
a time of political tension and confusion. The April 14 and
21 elections were marred by manipulation, bribery,
intimidation and outright fraud. The elections have been
condemned by a wide range of international and domestic
observers, with many Nigerian and international groups
calling for a complete re-run of the polls. The Action
Congress (AC) and All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP) filed
legal challenges to the presidential election on May 22, and
various opposition candidates have also filed legal
challenges against the announced results of other races.
However, the electoral tribunals have been slow to start and
confusion remains over the procedures they will follow.
Still, the mood throughout the country is that something is
needed to correct the electoral malpractices, and civil
society and the political opposition are calling for
demonstrations and protests to overturn many election
results. It is likely that the election tribunals will
overturn some results, and it is possible that a few
successful challenges could create the momentum for
additional changes.


2. (C) Despite rhetoric condemning the election and calling
for demonstrations to bring about new polls, opposition
parties, labor, and civil society have not yet brought the
masses to the streets. Vice President Atiku left Nigeria in
early May and has not returned. General Buhari has given
mixed signals about whether he will fight the election
results in the courts and he has apparently refrained from
organizing any public protests. A few sporadic
demonstrations and some election-related violence have
occurred, despite threats by the Nigerian Police Force (NPF)
to use force against demonstrators. Members of the Nigerian
Bar Association boycotted the courts on May 18 and largely
shut down the legal system for a day in protest, and a
consortium of labor and civil society organizations are
calling for a two-day stay at home strike on May 28-29 to
urge new elections. The most serious response to the
elections has come from the Niger Delta, where security has
deteriorated significantly, with at least two bombings of oil
facilities, eight kidnappings of U.S. citizens, and numerous
community confrontations in the past three weeks. The attack
on the Bayelsa State House the evening before the
Presidential Election followed several weeks later by the
destruction of Bayelsa Governor and Vice-President-elect
Goodluck Jonathan's house in his home state, allegedly by
members of his own ethnic group, and continued threats of
more attacks by militants in the area have lowered
expectations of any quick solution to the Delta's problems.


3. (C) The Obasanjo government, President-designate
Yar'adua, incoming officials, and the leadership of the
People's Democratic Party (PDP) have refused to admit
publicly that the election was seriously flawed. They
acknowledge that there were some problems, but claim that
critics of the polls are merely sore losers. Their public
rhetoric focuses on praise for the Obasanjo administration
and on the importance of the May 29 civilian-civilian
transfer of power as a milestone for Nigeria. The last
Federal Executive Council meeting was held on May 23, though
all cabinet officers technically retain their posts until the
May 29 handover. Confusion and chaos reign at the
Presidential Villa and most Ministries. The Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, for example, is a virtual ghost town. Most
offices have been deserted for the past week and incumbent
Minister Joy Ogwu is packing her bags and preparing to return
to private life. Speculation about who will obtain key
positions in the Villa and in Yar'Adua's cabinet is rampant,
but mostly uninformed. It is clear that there are several
circles around Yar'Adua competing for influence, and that
President Obasanjo and his personal allies are still hoping
to play a major role in shaping the next administration.
Many people believe that Commerce Minister Moddibo will be

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the next Chief of Staff, for example, and he is certainly
acting as a Chief of Staff during the transition, but
Obasanjo and/or some around him are also pushing for current
Chief of Staff Major-General Abdullahi Mohammed to remain on
the job. Many key executive and ministerial positions may
remain vacant until July or August, seriously impeding our
ability to conduct even routine business with the GON.


4. (C) On May 24, the MFA Chief of Protocol told Poloff that
the GON is not certain who will attend the inauguration from
the international community. He was hopeful that the MFA
would have a clearer picture by Saturday May 26. A number of
African Heads of State are expected to attend, and we can
confirm that Namibian President Sam Nujoma is coming. Our
diplomatic colleagues in Abuja have told us that most
European governments, India, Japan, and Canada will be
represented at the inauguration by resident Ambassadors/High
Commissioners, rather than by delegations from capitals. The
British government is sending Baroness Royall, a Labour peer
from the House of Lords and a party spokesperson on
international affairs. The Chinese government will be
represented by a Xu Jialu, the Vice Chairman of the Standing
Committee of the National People's Congress, who is being
sent as a special envoy by President Hu Jintao. A Russian
counterpart told Poloff May 24 that his country is sending an
academic who serves as Russia's Special Envoy to the African
Development Bank to the inauguration.


5. (C) You should expect that the Nigerian media will be
interested in your visit and that the pro-government press
will attempt to portray your presence as the U.S.
government's endorsement of the new Yar'Adua administration.
Yar'Adua's invitation to attend the G-8 summit in Germany has
been widely portrayed in the local media as "western
endorsement" of his election, despite the fact that the
invitation was issued to the Nigerian president (whoever he
may be) weeks before the election. We have not arranged any
media coverage of your visit, but journalists will be out in
force at the inaugural events and you may also be ambushed
during any meetings at the Presidential Villa.


6. (C) As inauguration day approaches, so too does the
prospect of public confrontations and perhaps violence.
Labor organizations and civil society groups have called for
public activities during the two-day strike coinciding with
the inauguration and other strikes in the education, energy
and aviation sectors continue on a sporadic basis. A group
of militants this week issued a new threat to expand
activities beyond the Niger Delta, specifically to Abuja.
Fuel shortages have reappeared, with lines today rivaling the
worst of the fuel lines in 2003/2004. Much remains unsettled
and little is likely to be clear until weeks after the
handover to President-designate Yar'adua. What is clear is
that opposition and civil society groups have not given up
hope even as they have not mounted significant public
pressure in the weeks following the April events.

CAMPBELL