U.S.-UAE GULF SECURITY DIALOGUE AND JOINT MILITARY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 001161

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/FO-DAS GRAY, PM AA/S MULL, T A/S
ROOD, PDAS MCNERNEY,
DOD FOR OSD PDAS MARY BETH LONG,
CENTCOM FOR MAJ GEN FINDLEY
NSC FOR N RAMCHAND, M DORAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PTER PARM MOPS MASS KNNP IR AE
SUBJECT: U.S.-UAE GULF SECURITY DIALOGUE AND JOINT MILITARY
COMMITTEE: AN UPDATE AND WAY FORWARD RECOMMENDATIONS

REF: A. ABU DHABI 458

B. 06-ABU DHABI 2930

C. 06-ABU DHABI 3835

D. 06-ABU DHABI 4302

E. ABU DHABI 1143

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (b and d).


1. (S) Summary: Since the May 2007 Gulf Security Dialogue
(GSD),and earlier meetings of the Joint Military Committee
(JMC) working groups and Air and Missile Defense working
group, we have seen progress in our bilateral mil-to-mil and
security relationship in the areas of defense cooperation and
regional security. Notably, the UAEG has indicated strong
interest in purchasing 12 Patriot PAC-3/GEM-T anti-ballistic
missile batteries and other lower and upper tier missile
defense systems in order to create an overarching Air and
Missile Defense (AMD) architecture and Concept of Operations
(CONOPS). UAE has also received a Letter of Offer and
Acceptance (LOA) from the U.S. Liaison Office for the
purchase of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System
(HIMARS) and has agreed to host the multilateral exercise
EAGLE RESOLVE 2008 (ER08) with a Theater Air and Missile
Defense (TAMD) theme. Additionally, both Boeing and
Northrop-Grumman will provide Requests for Information (RFIs)
on an Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft
(&Wedgetail8 and E2-D Hawkeye respectively) on 15 July

2007. The UAE currently has over $2.6B in Foreign Military
Sales (FMS) cases and another $8.5B plus in direct commercial
sales in the BLOCK 60 F-16 program, the first hybrid F-16
case and one of the premier cases in the USCENTCOM AOR. END
SUMMARY.

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Enhanced Defense Capabilities and Cooperation
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2. (S/NF) On June 28, Ambassador met with Raytheon
Corporation representatives who reported that Yousef
Al-Otaiba, International Affairs Director for Abu Dhabi Crown
Prince/Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ),has indicated firm UAE
interest in the purchase of 10 Patriot Advanced Capability-3
(PAC-3/GEM-T) anti-ballistic missile batteries, estimated at
USD 4-7 billion. Additional interest was expressed regarding
Surface Launched Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles
(SLAMRAAM) and Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD).
USLO has since received a Letter of Request from the UAE for
price and availability of 12 batteries. MbZ had previously
stated that he wants a complete missile defense system in
place by summer 2009 (Ref A). United States Central Command
(USCENTCOM),s Bilateral Air Defense Initiative (BADI) is the
operational framework to implement the GSD concepts for an
overarching AMD architecture to include Shared Early Warning
(SEW),Common Air Picture, and regional air/missile defense.


3. (S/NF) The UAE's expression of interest in a specific U.S.
missile defense platform that would be interoperable with
other U.S. systems would be the largest Patriot program
outside Japan, Germany, and Saudi Arabia. It could be
integrated with the programs in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to
obtain a shared Common Air Picture. In April 2006, U.S. Army
missile defense experts identified and surveyed six potential
PAC-3 emplacement locations to cover key strategic nodes such
as the Al Dhafra and Al Bateen Air Bases, the Fujairah
airport, and the Jebel Ali and Fujairah ports. The
assessments were based on a critical asset list provided to
USCENTCOM by the UAEG. The locations were selected to defend
against a threat from an Iranian missile attack axis and to
protect portions of the metropolitan areas of Abu Dhabi,
Dubai, and Fujairah (Ref A). USLO Chief met with Staff Air
Vice Marshall (Major General) Mohammed Sowaidan Al Gimzy, UAE
Commander of Air Force and Air Defense (UAE AF&AD) on July 8,

2007. Sowaidan said that he was the lead on the AMD project.
USLO received the Patriot Letter of Request (LoR) for 12
batteries on July 11, 2007. Finally, USLO and Raytheon were
informed that the UAE intends to provide an LoR for a
classified briefing on SLAMRAAM. The UAE had previously
requested a classified briefing on THAAD, which is currently
in Exception to National Disclosure Policy (ENDP) release
coordination. The UAEG has alluded to an interest in
contributing funds to the spiral development of follow-on

ABU DHABI 00001161 002 OF 003


THAAD programs/upgrades.


4. (S/NF) In response to the UAEG request for a High Mobility
Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) package, valued at USD 650
million, U.S. Liaison Office (USLO) presented an LoA to the
UAEG on July 1, 2007. The UAEG has until September 1 to
accept the offer. The HIMARS would afford the UAE a counter
battery capability against a ballistic missile threat. The
overall objective of our missile defense cooperation is to
develop an interoperable, full-spectrum capability in order
to provide protection against short range, lower tier and
upper tier ballistic missile and air-breathing threats like
enemy aircraft and cruise missiles. The purchase of HIMARS,
and recent interest in Patriot PAC-3, are indications that
the Emiratis understand our arguments about interoperability
in key air defense systems, and are seeking a layered air
defense with strategic depth. Additionally, the USG is
working with the UAE to provide them CENTRIX, a classified
communications system, Common Air Picture, SEW and a CONOPS
to integrate command, control and the Air and Missile defense
system. The UAE has expressed that the AMD be an all
encompassing architecture. They have also stressed the
importance of this being a well-coordinated &team8 effort
including both the USG and all applicable U.S. commercial
contractors.

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Regional Security
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5. (S/NF) At the request of CENTCOM, the UAE has agreed to
host the multilateral exercise EAGLE RESOLVE 2008 (ER08),
scheduled for execution in April-May 2008. Expected
participants in ER08 include the six members of the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) plus Egypt and Jordan (GCC 2),in
addition to numerous observer nations from the region and
beyond. The UAE hosted EAGLE RESOLVE in 2004. This
multilateral exercise, with a Theater Air Missile Defense
(TAMD) theme, will be an opportunity for the UAE to build on,
and showcase recent Air and Missile Defense advances as well
as its procurement of CENTRIX, SEW and Common Air Picture.
The SEW site survey has been funded and is expected to take
place August 23-31, 2007, with Initial Operating Capability
(IOC) approximately 6 months after the survey. The first
CENTRIX terminal, destined for the UAE Navy Operations Center
is in the final stages of installation (PHASE 1) with PHASES
2 and 3 to be completed within one year in numerous other UAE
command locations. The Common Air Picture working group is
planning to meet mid August 2007 (location TBD),to discuss
the Common Air Picture and associated CONOPs.


6. (S) The EAGLE RESOLVE exercise scenario will also include
elements of consequence management, counter terrorism, and
medical emergency response, and may lead to further
coordination on Critical Infrastructure Defense (CID) and the
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Exercises like ER08,
that steadily increase in sophistication and emphasize
interoperability in joint and combined operations, are
central in advancing GSD objectives to build a multilateral
security framework. The ER08 Concept Development Conference
(CDC) was held June 23-26, 2007 and the Initial Planning
Conference is scheduled for September 8-12. The UAE,s
concept for the exercise was in step with USCENTCOM, USLO and
Embassy objectives.


7. (S/NF) The Emirati leadership has on a number of occasions
expressed concern about the threat of growing Iranian
influence throughout the region, including in Iraq, yet has
consistently pursued a cautious and non-confrontational
public posture towards Iran (refs B, C). In the past, the UAE
has been hesitant to participate in exercises designed to
send a clear message to Tehran, and has come under pressure
from Iran prior to previous multilateral exercises (ref D).
The UAE did, however, send observers to exercise LEADING EDGE
07 in October 2006 in the Arabian Gulf, which had a PSI
theme. The decision to host exercise ER08 is a significant
step for the UAE, which is mindful of its close economic ties
with Iran, the nature of the very proximate &existential8
threat from a much larger power, and the significant
Persian-origin population within the UAE (estimated at up to
400,000).


ABU DHABI 00001161 003 OF 003


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Counterproliferation - Export Control Law
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8. (S) The UAE Federal National Council has passed an export
control law, which is currently awaiting ratification from
the rulers of the individual emirates, before signature by
UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. Prior to
the June 2007 Counterproliferation Task Force Working Group
(CTF) meeting in Abu Dhabi, post passed a list of specific
questions that the UAE should consider as it sets up its
export control regime. Post has been working with Department
on an engagement plan to assist the UAE in effectively
implementing its new export control system. Additionally, the
inclusion of PSI themes in the IRON FALCON exercise, hosted
by the UAE,s Air Warfare Center and IRON MAGIC, a naval
surface warfare exercise, was well received by the UAE. The
PSI themes in these exercises will most likely take table-top
form in the initial iterations, with increasing complexity,
and with the ultimate goal being an integrated Field Training
Exercise (FTX) in the future.

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Defense Cooperation Agreement/Joint Military Committee
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9. (S) Embassy Abu Dhabi recommends that the USG should
determine as early as possible an appropriate "way-ahead"
strategy in response to the UAE on its draft Defense
Cooperation Agreement (DCA),submitted to the embassy in
Arabic and dated August 28, 2006 (ref E). With JMC working
group meetings, including the DCA working group, proposed for
October 17-19, 2007 in Tampa, we recommend presenting our DCA
draft to UAE by September 15 in hope of securing UAE
concurrence, at least along main lines, by the full Joint
Military Committee (JMC) meeting tentative for January 15-17,
2008 in Abu Dhabi. Recognizing the high UAEG interest in
continued military cooperation, including big ticket military
hardware purchases previously mentioned (SL-AMRAAM, Patriot
PAC-3/GEM-T, THAAD, HIMARS, Blackhawks, Apache Upgrade,
etc.),we see the value of a new DCA superseding the
unratified 1994 version as the official basis for existing
(and expanding) mil-to-mil cooperation, but we simultaneously
caution against linking the negotiation of a DCA to any
foreign military or direct commercial sales.

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Way Forward for a Robust Political Military Relationship
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10. (S) A very healthy U.S.-UAE political-military
relationship serves as a backdrop to current regional events.
The UAE gives strong support in the war on terror, has
cooperated with us in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon and with the
Palestinians, and provides basing and over-flight for U.S.
reconnaissance and refueling assets, as well as naval
logistics support. The F-16 Block 60 program is a showcase
of cooperation; the UAE took delivery of the last of 79 F-16
aircraft in October, one having been lost in a mishap since
the original purchase of 80 planes. Another example of
robust and expanding military cooperation is the Gulf Air
Warfare Center at Al Dhafra Air Base. This regional facility
is enhancing interoperability and cooperation between the
U.S. and members of the GCC, Egypt, Jordan, the UK and
France. In the future, the U.S. plans to help the UAE
develop a state-of-the-art tactical range, incorporate USN
and USMC assets as participants, and use tankers for
air-to-air refueling. We look forward to building further
upon a strong political-military foundation, and towards
locking in and sharpening the focus of UAE cooperation in the
face of what could well be mounting threats in the region.
SISON