Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ABIDJAN995
2007-09-25 15:28:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abidjan
Cable title:  

COTE D'IVOIRE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BY OCTOBER

Tags:  PGOV PREL UN IV 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHAB #0995/01 2681528
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 251528Z SEP 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3560
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000995 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UN IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BY OCTOBER
2008; AUDIENCES FORAINES TO BEGIN INCREMENTALLY

REF: A. ABIDJAN 909


B. ABIDJAN 935

ABIDJAN 00000995 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Cynthia Akuetteh for
Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000995

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UN IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BY OCTOBER
2008; AUDIENCES FORAINES TO BEGIN INCREMENTALLY

REF: A. ABIDJAN 909


B. ABIDJAN 935

ABIDJAN 00000995 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Cynthia Akuetteh for
Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Independent Electoral Commission (CEI)
President Robert Mambe announced September 13 that Cote
d'Ivoire will be ready for presidential elections by October

2008. Mambe has always asserted that it would take 10-12
months to complete the identification and voter registration
processes once the audiences foraines are underway (reftel
B). Given Prime Minister Soro's September 12 announcement
that the audiences foraines will begin September 25, Mambe
contends that elections by October 2008 offers a reasonable
timeframe. To date there has been no official comment or
even an acknowledgment from the President or the Prime
Minister regarding Mambe's announcement. In a September 19
meeting with Charge, Mambe described the lingering debate
about the number of people the audiences foraines need to
register as well as security for identification and elections
as the most critical challenges facing the government. In a
September 20 meeting with Emboffs, a Ministry of Justice
official noted that only 25 of the 111 tribunals scheduled to
adjudicate audiences foraines cases will begin on September

25. International observers are largely pessimistic about a
successful kickoff of the audiences foraines and the
prospects of elections being held by October 2008. End
Summary.


2. (C) Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) President
Robert Mambe announced September 13 that Cote d'Ivoire will
be ready for presidential elections by October 2008. In a
statement published widely in the press, Mambe argued that
given that the audiences foraines are scheduled to begin
September 25, elections should be possible by October 2008.
Mambe has always asserted that it would take 10-12 months to
complete the identification and voter registration processes
once the audiences foraines are underway (reftel D). Given
Prime Minister Soro's September 12 announcement that the
audiences foraines will begin September 25, Mambe contends

that elections by October 2008 are reasonable. To date there
has been no official comment from either the President or the
Prime Minister. In a meeting with Emboffs September 18, the
Prime Minister's Deputy Cabinet Director Paul Koffi KOFFI was
circumspect in discussing the potential date for elections
saying "It's the law that fixes the date."


3. (C) In a September 19 meeting with the Charge, Mambe
claimed that the press reports misrepresented his comments.
He explained that he believes elections are possible by
October 2008, not before then, and not necessarily in the
month of October 2008. In describing the challenges to
holding elections in Cote d'Ivoire by October 2008, Mambe
noted that the audiences foraines process is still a
contentious issue in terms of the length of time necessary to
complete the process and the number of people who need to
receive birth certificates. The opposition political parties
believe that 3.5 million people need birth certificates.
This number is based on the National Institute of Statistics
(INS) estimated 3.8% annual population growth rate of the
country over the last 7 years. Mambe noted that there are
some political actors (namely the pro-Gbagbo camp) who assert
that only 200,000 to 300,000 people need to receive birth
certificates in order to register on the electoral rolls.
According to Mambe, this lingering debate about the numbers
has led to a lack of consensus on when to start the audiences
foraines and how much time is needed to register people.


4. (C) Mambe also identified security as a major challenge
for the audiences foraines and subsequently identification
and elections. Mambe noted that the Integrated Command
Center has responsibility for providing security for the
audiences foraines as well as the identification and
elections processes. Mambe alluded to lack of coordination
and preparedness of the ICC and noted that if people believe
that the audiences foraines are not safe, then it will be
very difficult to hold elections. (There is still concern
that there are a lot of arms circulating in the West of the
country.)


Audiences Foraines to Begin Incrementally
********************************************* **


5. (C) Ministry of Justice Director for the Audiences
Foraines Process Perrine Nahounou told Emboffs September 20
that there are still many kinks to be worked out and that
only 25 of the 111 tribunals will begin on September 25. In
a roundtable discussion, a group of judges and lawyers told
Emboffs September 20 that it will be impossible to complete

ABIDJAN 00000995 002.2 OF 002


the work of the audiences foraines in three months if there
are indeed 3.5 million people in need of birth certificates.
Magistrate Ehounou Manlan, who was part of a audiences
foraines tribunal in January-March 2007, told Emboffs that
the audiences foraines is a inherently slow process and that
it will be a "catastrophe" for judges to have to decide three
million cases. He emphasized that the audiences foraines
will create a backlog in the normal judicial system if almost
all of the country's active judges work solely for the
audiences foraines.


International Observers Skeptical About Audiences Foraines
and Elections
********************************************* **


6. (C) While the audiences foraines began as scheduled on
September 25, international observers are largely pessimistic
about the process and the prospects of elections being held
by October 2008. In a September 18 luncheon roundtable,
European Union Charge Vincent Dowd told Charge that elections
would not be possible before 2009 or even 2010. European
Union Political Chief Gianmarco Scuppa told Poloff September
18 that the audiences foraines are so poorly organized, he
doubts that they will be able to begin on the 25th. Scuppa
told Poloff that he does not believe elections can take place
before March 2009 from a technical point of view. Scuppa
also noted that despite having already committed 8 billion
FCFA (approximately 17.2 million USD) to the audiences
foraines and identification processes, the European Union is
questioning whether or not it is better to hold off on
holding elections and ensure that identification is done
right or if elections should be done quickly with
identification completed after elections. In a meeting with
Emboffs September 19, United Nations Operation in Cote
d'Ivoire (UNOCI) Electoral Division Chief Ahmedou Becaye Seck
underlined that the audiences foraines are a critical key to
the elections process because they ensure that people have
access to nationality papers, thus allowing them to register
to vote and move freely throughout the country.


7. (C) Comment: The audiences foraines began as scheduled on
September 25 in four cities, including one in the North
(Ferkessedougou, Soro's hometown) and one in the South
(Gagnoa, Gbagbo's hometown). Soro is very committed to the
audiences foraines process as he has more to lose if the
process is not complete. At a lunch that he hosted for a few
key donors, including Charge, he remarked for the first time
publicly that the audiences foraines timetable could be
prolonged if they do not finish their work in the three-month
timeframe, which appears increasingly likely. End Comment.
AKUETTEH