COTE D'IVOIRE: FRANCE'S VIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000962

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W-EPLUMB AND INR/AA-BGRAVES, PARIS FOR
GD'ELIA, LONDON FOR RBELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IV FR
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: FRANCE'S VIEW

REF: ABIDJAN 864

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CYNTHIA AKUETTEH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) A
ND (D)


1. (C) Summary. French Deputy Chief of Mission Sebastien
Minot told Poloff September 11 that the differences in the
positions of the Ivorian government and the Forces Nouvelles
on disarmament and identification may be difficult to
reconcile and could derail the Ouagadougou Political Accord
(OPA). Minot said it is unclear whether President Laurent
Gbagbo will call for early elections or seek to remain in
power through extensions of his presidential mandate. Minot
said Gbagbo has a contradictory attitude towards France
because in public he engages in anti-colonial rhetoric while
in private he seeks a positive bilateral relationship. Minot
said Gbagbo wants to meet with French President Nicolas
Sarkozy, but that the French government believes it is not
yet time for such a meeting to take place given the current
situation in Cote d'Ivoire. End Summary.

Ouagadougou Political Accord
--------------


2. (C) French Deputy Chief of Mission Sebastien Minot (who
was promoted a few weeks ago from his position as Political
Counselor in Abidjan) told Poloff September 11 that the OPA
has changed the Ivorian political landscape since the
international community is now relegated to the role of
spectator to plans to end the country's political crisis.
Minot said both sides exhibited good will at the September 4
meeting of the OPA's Monitoring and Evaluation Committee, but
were reluctant to respond to the Facilitator's request for
specific dates for OPA implementation. According to Minot,
lack of technical capacity, especially in the Prime
Minister's office, has contributed to the slow place of OPA
implementation, but is not the only factor. Minot stated that
the government's and Forces Nouvelles' positions on
disarmament and identification are far apart and, while not
irreconcilable, may be difficult to solve. Minot
acknowledged that inability to reach agreement on those
issues may render the OPA yet another agreement that fails to
resolve the crisis and achieve permanent peace.


3. (C) Minot believes President Laurent Gbagbo wants full
disarmament and a complete reunion of the country. Minot said
Prime Minister Guillaume Soro wants to keep the Forces
Nouvelles armed to remain in their good graces as well as to
maintain leverage over Gbagbo. Minot added that, even if
Soro believed in reunification of the country, he would be
unable to convince the Forces Nouvelles to accept it.
According to Minot, Gbagbo and Soro hold totally different
concepts regarding reunification of the Armed Forces. Minot
said Gbagbo believes a decision is needed on ranks for a
small number of Forces Nouvelles members who need to be
absorbed into the country's Armed Forces. Soro, on the other
hand, perceives that there are two separate armies that need
to be melded together and resulting into a new Armed Forces
with Forces Nouvelles members retaining their current ranks.


4. (C) According to Minot, since Soro must deliver identity
cards to his northern supporters, he will insist that the
identification process be as complete as possible. Minot
said Gbagbo is fixated on elections and on the fear, which
has plagued Ivorian politics for the last decade, that
northerners will vote for Assembly of Republicans
(Rassemblement des Republicains - RDR) party leader Alassane
Dramane Ouattara.

Elections
--------------


5. (C) Minot said Gbagbo likes to float ideas and keep his
options open and his August 6 call for quick elections (See
Reftel) could have been an example of this. Minot noted that
Gbagbo could take advantage of the fact that the
international community is "less vigilant" at this time and
that the United Nations Operation in Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI)
lacks a Special Representative of the Secretary General
(SRSG) and call for early elections. However, Minot believes
Gbagbo might also want to delay elections and remain as head
of state through extensions of his mandate.

Bilateral Relationship
--------------


6. (C) Minot told Poloff that there are no bilateral problems
between France and Cote d'Ivoire, but there are irritants. He

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said former French President Jacques Chirac and President
Gbagbo did not speak to each other due to the personal
antagonism that developed between them as a result of events
in 2004. (Note: In November 2004, French "Licorne"
peacekeeping troops destroyed the Ivorian air force on the
ground in retaliation for a raid on a French military base in
Bouake, which had killed nine French peacekeepers.
Pro-government militia then whipped up anti-French feeling,
resulting in the destruction of expatriate homes, businesses,
and schools in Abidjan. French troops moved into Abidjan to
secure major streets, bridges, and the airport and, in order
to keep back thousands of demonstrators, fired shots. The
Ivorian government claimed the French killed 63 and injured

1300. End Note. ) According to Minot, France supports
elections and has not changed its position on the Ivorian
political crisis since the signing of the Linas-Marcoussis
agreement in 2003. Minot noted that, while France still has
commercial interests in Cote d'Ivoire, Ivorians delude
themselves on its importance on the state of the French
economy, which he described as minimal.


7. (C) According to Minot, President Gbagbo has a
contradictory attitude towards France because in public he
engages in anti-colonial rhetoric while in private he seeks a
positive bilateral relationship. Minot noted that whenever
Cote d'Ivoire encounters a problem, it appeals to France to
solve it. Minot said the French response is that Cote
d'Ivoire must solve its own problems, but that France can
assist along with other international partners. Minot said
Gbagbo wants to meet with French President Nicolas Sarkozy,
but that Paris does not believe the situation in Cote
d'Ivoire is "mature" enough yet for a meeting. In response
to Poloff's questions about September 11 press reports that
Gbagbo will travel to New York in September to meet Sarkozy
on the margins of the UN General Assembly, Minot responded
that there are currently no plans for a meeting, but did not
dismiss that Gbagbo might travel to New York to seek such an
encounter.
AKUETTEH