ELECTIONS PLANNING IN COTE D'IVOIRE: WHO'S IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABIDJAN 000935

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR USAID/DCHA MLEMARGIE, AF/W - EPLUMB, PARIS FOR
GD'ELIA, LONDON FOR RBELL,

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM UN IV
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS PLANNING IN COTE D'IVOIRE: WHO'S IN
CHARGE?

REF: A. ABIDJAN 900

B. ABIDJAN 906

C. ABIDJAN 864

D. ABIDJAN 909

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Cynthia Akuetteh for
Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: The composition and responsibilities of the
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI),the main body
responsible for organizing elections in Cote d'Ivoire, has
been highly politicized and subject to contentious infighting
since the crisis erupted in 2002. The CEI is composed of
members of the political parties as well as representatives
of the President of the Republic, key government ministries
and the President of the National Assembly. It is
responsible for the technical aspects of elections
preparation (delivering ballots, setting up polling booths,
etc.). More importantly, the CEI is responsible for two
political tinderboxes: creating the new voters list and
proposing to the government dates for the beginning of
election campaigning and elections. The CEI's July 27
distribution of CDs containing the 2000 voters list to all
political parties sparked complaints from the opposition
coalition Rally of the Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace
(RHDP) that the CDs were too difficult to operate and that
they could not verify the 5.5 million names on the list in
the three weeks allotted to them. While the CEI's
composition and technical role are no longer subject to
debate, its role in setting the date for elections and
establishing the list of eligible voters is vulnerable to
political maneuvering. While the opposition squabbles over
the format of the 2000 voters list, the CEI's authority over
the nontechnical issues remains politically vulnerable
leaving the door open for President Gbagbo to push the
country toward premature elections before full implementation
of the Ouagadougou Political Accord (OPA). End Summary.

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Composition of the CEI
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2. (C) The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) is the main
body responsible for organizing elections and its political
composition and responsibilities have been highly politicized
and subject to contentious infighting since Cote d'Ivoire's
crisis erupted in 2002. Its composition and role were
debated extensively at the peace talks in Linas-Marcoussis in
January 2003 with follow-up at the Pretoria talks in 2005 and
then again in Ouagadougou in 2007. (Note: The President's
camp argued in Ouaga to make the National Institute for
Statistics (INS),which is the main technical body
responsible for statistics, the national census, and
electoral registers and is dominated by the President's
Ivoirian Popular Front party (FPI),the sole body responsible
for creating the voters list; the unarmed opposition and New
Forces wanted the INS to be accountable to the multipartisan
CEI. In the end, the FPI acquiesced and the CEI will
supervise the work of the INS. End Note.)


3. (SBU) The CEI is comprised of a central committee and
various regional and local level committees. The central
committee is the prime decision making body, and as a
confidence-building measure, all the major political parties
have representative on the central committee; the local level
committees mirror the political composition of the central
committee. The central committee has one representative each
from the President of the Republic, the President of the
National Assembly (President Gbagbo's ruling FPI party),the
President of the Economic and Social Council (FPI party); two
representatives from the Bar (opposition parties) and the
Council of Magistrates (FPI party); and one representative
each from the Ministries of Security (FPI); Territorial
Administration (FPI); Economy and Finance (independent); and
Defense (FPI). (Note: The Ministries of Security and
Territorial Administration were merged into the Ministry of
Interior, led by Desire Tagro, a close Gbagbo aide and
principal FPI interlocutor in Ouaga, in the March cabinet
reshuffle. It is not yet clear whether the Ministry of
Interior will have two seats or just one on the CEI. End
Note). Only the representatives of the parties that were
signatories to the Linas Marcoussis Agreement (LMA) and the
representatives of the President of the Republic and the
President of the National Assembly have voting rights. This
voting group elects the President of the CEI (current
president is from the Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire
(PDCI)) as well as the two Vice Presidents (who are currently
from the Assembly of the Republicans (RDR) and the New

ABIDJAN 00000935 002 OF 003


Forces). The fact that only a limited number of members have
voting rights dilutes the influence of the large number of
members and sympathizers of the President's FPI party on the
central committee.

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Who Sets the Date for Elections?
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4. (C) The OPA provides that the CEI's primary role is to
organize elections by supervising its technical aspects
(setting up polling booths, creating the ballots, etc.).
More importantly, the CEI is responsible for two political
tinderboxes: the creation of the new voters list and setting
the election date. According to Ivoirian law, the CEI should
propose to the government dates for elections and the opening
of the electoral campaign. Opposition party Union for
Democracy and Peace in Cote d'Ivoire (UDPCI) Secretary
General Salif Ndiaye emphasized to Poloffs August 24 the
importance the political opposition places on the CEI's role
in the successful implementation of the OPA. Ndiaye
underlined that it is the CEI that should indicate when the
country is ready for elections and propose a date. "Gbagbo,"
Ndiaye said, "can't say when elections will be" (reftel A).


5. (C) CEI President Robert Mambe told Poloff August 29 that
the CEI cannot provide a date for elections at this time
since key OPA benchmarks have not yet been met. However,
Mambe has repeatedly told the press, the UN peacekeeping
mission (ONUCI),and the opposition political parties that
elections cannot be held for 10 to 12 months after the
completion of the audiences foraines and the identification
process. Aside from the technical and highly contentious
political issue of supervising the INS' efforts to establish
the voters list, Mambe told Poloff that the CEI will propose
a date for elections to the government depending on the
development of the situation on the ground and once the
audiences foraines are well underway. He said that elections
cannot be held until the audiences foraines are underway;
destroyed public records have been reconstituted; a new voter
registry list is created based on the identification process;
the Integrated Command Center is up and running (the ICC
under the OPA is mandated to provide security for the
elections); the militias have been demobilized; and the
government's civil administration including prefects and
subprefects as well as previously elected mayors are in place
throughout the country. (Note: At an August 30 briefing for
the diplomatic corps by ONUCI, a Licorne representative noted
that 60 percent of the civil administration is now in place
in the North. End Note.). Mambe told Poloff that the Prime
Minister has promised that all of these steps will be
conducted properly and has said that all Ivoirians need to
have identity documents in order for elections to be held.

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Election Certification and Working with ONUCI Elections
Certification Cell
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6. (C) Since the CEI's responsibilities are mainly confined
to elections preparations (proposing a date for elections,
publishing an accurate and politically acceptable voters
list, distributing voter cards, and setting up election
infrastructure) and political confidence building (to give
the various political actors a stake in the elections
process) it has no legal or political authority to certify
the elections. It has no decision-making authority once
elections take place or in the event that there is a dispute
amongst the parties as to the validity of the elections
result; that responsibility falls on the Constitutional
Council. The Constitutional Council is composed of seven
members, not all of whom are legal or constitutional experts,
but who are all Gbagbo-appointees. The political opposition
is concerned about the objectivity of the Council. Mambe
warned that ONUCI needs "intellectually capable" and
"incorruptible" staff in its elections certification cell and
must start work immediately in order to be in country to
observe the audiences foraines. It is interesting that Mambe
refrained from criticizing the international community for
eliminating the High Representative for Elections (HRE)
position in his August 29 meeting with Poloff, even though he
had publicly and privately in earlier meetings with Emboffs
called for keeping the position.

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Status of CEI Election Planning; Working with Political
Parties
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ABIDJAN 00000935 003 OF 003




7. (C) CEI President Mambe explained to Poloff that the CEI
is currently preparing for elections by conducting training
and addressing technical issues and that they have set up
their local cells. On July 27 CEI, in the presence of the
INS, distributed CDs with the 2000 voter list to the major
political parties. Mambe noted to Poloff that the CEI was
under no obligation to distribute the 2000 list to the
political parties. The CEI also distributed the list August
13 to its partners: UNDP, the Commission for the Supervision
of Identification (CNSI),ONUCI electoral division, the
National Press Council (CNP) and the Ivoirian Observatory for
Press Freedom and Ethics (OLPED). The list contains the
names of 5.5 million registered voters. According to Mambe,
the 2000 list represents only 55% of Ivoirians who are
currently eligible to vote and noted that elections cannot be
held with only half the population participating.


8. (C) According to press reports, shortly after receiving
the voters list, the coalition RHDP parties complained that
the CDs were difficult to operate and that they were given
only three weeks to verify the list. The press wrote that
RDR Deputy Secretary General for Political Affairs Ahmadou
Soumahoro complained that the CD was not usable because
parties cannot edit the list. Soumahoro reportedly called
the handling of the voters list a "prelude to confusion" and
predicted an "opaqueness" in the management of the voters
list. Mambe noted to Poloff that hard copies were too bulky
and time consuming to print (Mambe said it takes 40 minutes
to print one hard copy of the 2000 voter list).


9. (C) Comment: While the CEI's composition and technical
role are no longer subject to debate, its role in setting the
date for elections and establishing the eligible voters list
is vulnerable to political maneuvering. Given the CEI's
makeup, if political parties become engaged in a protracted
battle over when it is appropriate to hold elections, the CEI
is vulnerable to partisan bickering as the opposition
political parties and the President's cronies on the CEI
central committee face off. The CEI president continues to
express confidence in the Prime Minister and his intention to
maintain the CEI's independence, but the speculation on the
date of the elections, sparked by Gbagbo's pre-independence
day speech (reftel C) has clearly strained the appearance
that the CEI maintains control over this debate. Mambe's
pronouncement that elections cannot be held for 10-12 months
after the audiences foraines and identification is widely
accepted by the opposition political parties, ONUCI, and the
umbrella of technical organizations that the Prime Minister
oversees and which organize the elections and identification
process (reftel D). However, the President's camp continues
to push forward an optimistic view that elections can be held
quickly (reftel C) and can be expected to use its non-voting
members on the CEI plus the President's "bully pulpit" to
press the point. It remains to be seen if Mambe and the CEI
are losing ground in the fight to organize elections
independently. But it is clear that the CEI does not have
the final word and the date of the elections is vulnerable to
political machinations, particularly by the President's camp.
End Comment.
AKUETTEH