COTE D'IVOIRE: UDPCI SECGEN FORECASTS VIOLENCE IF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000906

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W-PDAVIS AND INR/AA-BGRAVES, PARIS AND LONDON
FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: UDPCI SECGEN FORECASTS VIOLENCE IF
OPA NOT IMPLEMENTED

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CYNTHIA AKUETTEH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)
.



1. (C) Summary. Alassane Salif N'Diaye, Secretary General of
the opposition political party Union for Democracy and Peace
in Cote d'Ivoire (Union Pour la Democratie et pour la Paix en
Cote d'Ivoire - UDPCI),told Poloffs August 24 that the UDPCI
supports the Ouagadougou Political Accord (OPA),but is
concerned that it will not be implemented and the country
will return to war. N'Diaye said UDPCI leadership met with
the Independent Electoral Commission August 23 and that the
Commission believes elections are not possible, even under
the best circumstances, before 10 to 12 months. N'Diaye
stated that, if elections are not held and President Gbagbo
remains in office, the political opposition will have to
react. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Alassane Salif N'Diaye, Secretary General of the
UDPCI told Poloffs August 24 that UDPCI is a "liberal" party
that believes in free enterprise and open markets. N'Diaye
said the UDPCI supports all methods to achieve peace in Cote
d'Ivoire and supports the OPA. He noted that the UDPCI has
participated in all peace agreements. (Comment: UDPCI was
founded by the late Brigadier General Robert Guei, who
declared himself President in December 1999 after a bloodless
coup d'etat. UDPCI, a smaller party whose strength is found
in western Cote d'Ivoire among the Guere ethnic group, is a
member of the Assembly of Houphouetistes for Democracy and
Peace (Rassemblement des Houphouetistes pour la Democratie et
la Paix - RHDP),an umbrella group of unarmed opposition
parties. End Comment.)


3. (C) N'Diaye stated that the OPA calls for "free, open,
transparent, and credible" elections and that the UDPCI
supports this. N'Diaye said that, in order to have such
elections, the following events first need to occur: 1) the
"audiences foraines" that will issue replacement birth
certificates need to carry out their work, 2) the civil
administration needs to be redeployed in the north and west
of the country, 3) the military Integrated Command Center
(Centre de Commandement Integre - CCI) needs to be
functional, and 4) the militia need to be disarmed. N'Diaye
told Poloffs that UDPCI leadership met with the Independent
Electoral Commission August 23 and that the Commission said
that, even if the "audiences foraines" began the next day,
elections could not be held before 10 or 12 months. N'Diaye
stated that if elections are postponed indefinitely,
President Gbagbo remains in office, and the opposition will
have to "react" if faced with such a situation.


4. (C) N'Diaye said the OPA gave great hope for peace and
that all opposition parties support its implementation. He
expressed concern, however, that it will not be implemented
and that, like all the other peace agreements on Cote
d'Ivoire, will fail to resolve the country's crisis. N'Diaye
described the OPA as the "last solution" for Cote d'Ivoire
and warned that, if it is not implemented, Ivorians will
"kill each other."


5. (C) N'Diaye complained that the government has failed to
demobilize the militia and said UDPCI supporters in the west
of the country are afraid due to the presence of the militia
in that area. He noted that the west is the only region
where Prefects and sub Prefects are members of the military.
According to N'Diaye, the militia are present in the
country's universities. N'Diaye said that arms circulate
freely in Cote d'Ivoire and the government supports this
traffic.


6. (C) N'Diaye said Ivorians must resolve the country's
crisis, but called for assistance from the international
community. He complained that the investigation into the
alleged murder of UDPCI founder General Guei has not yielded
any results. N'Diaye charged that political assassination is
common place in Cote d'Ivoire and is used "by some to remain
in power."


7. (C) Comment. UDPCI is a signatory to the Linas-Marcoussis
peace agreement. The party has to cope with its legacy of
being founded by General Guei, whose suspension of the
presidential vote in 2000, led to violence and Gbagbo's
taking office. UDPCI has only two ministers in the
government, Minister of Transportation Tokusse Mabri and
Minister of National Education Gilbert Bleu-Laine, who is a
vocal dissenter of the UDPCI and who has all but completely
defected to the Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI),President

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Gbagbo's party. While N'Diaye's statement that Ivorians will
again take up arms if the OPA is not implemented may be
extreme, it could reflect the feelings of the UDPCI's
constituency , which is mostly found in the volatile west of
the country. It is clear that the opposition political class
wants to start to see progress on the OPA once the summer is
over and the government returns to work. N'Diaye is correct
that the militias have not been disarmed and this is an
impediment to disarmament.
AKUETTEH