COTE D'IVOIRE PEACE AGREEMENT: ALL EYES STILL ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000304

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UN IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE PEACE AGREEMENT: ALL EYES STILL ON
OUAGA

REF: A. ABIDJAN 226


B. OUAGADOUGOU 186

C. ABIDJAN 242

D. ABIDJAN 245

E. ABIDJAN 290

Classified By: PolOff Laura Taylor-Kale, Reasons 1.4 (b & d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Political actors in Abidjan are still
looking ahead to what round two of the Ouagadougou Peace
Accord (OPA) will bring as NF leader Guillaume Soro and
President Gbagbo negotiate the powers of the Prime Minister.
In the meantime, Soro is under pressure to accept the
Premiership. Several opposition parties have publicly
supported the possible appointment of Soro but the two
largest parties of the RHDP, the RDR and PDCI, are wavering
over the proposal and the coalition appears to be fractured.
While Abidjan focuses on Ouaga, President Gbagbo took the
first step to implement OPA by signing a decree to create a
joint command center. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) More than two weeks after the signing of the OPA
between NF leader Guillaume Soro and President Gbagbo,
political observers here remain cautiously optimistic that
the agreement will hold, but the political discussions over
the soon-to-be announced new government are becoming
increasingly tense. The audiences foraines to register the
population have been suspended until the new government is
formed. In the meantime, all eyes remain fixed on
Ouagadougou.


3. (C) Some opposition figures have publicly supported the
notion of Soro becoming Prime Minister. However, the RDR has
remained notably silent while the PDCI, maintaining that
Banny should remain Prime Minister, has suffered by appearing
unenthusiastic about OPA; the FPI is crowing that the PDCI
leadership does not support peace. Although PM Banny tries
to appear active, his credibility has been compromised and he
is a lame duck (reftel D). Gbagbo has not publicly discussed
Banny (COMMENT: Banny may be positioning himself for a
political future as the political maneuvering within the PDCI
continues. END COMMENT.)


4. (C) As reported by Embassy Ouagadougou and later confirmed
by Ivorian press reports, Compaore invited Soro back to
Ouagadougou for further discussions on March 13 and 14 to
iron out a power sharing deal. This week delegations led by
Gbagbo's representative Desire Tagro and NF Deputy Dacoury
Tabley are in Ouagadougou again to get final agreement (the
details of which many observers believe could very well
remain secret) on the powers of the Premier in what is widely
being called "round two" of the direct dialogue negotiations.
Soro has reportedly waited for the African Union and the UN
Security Council to officially endorse the agreement before
taking the premiership; the AU sent its recommendation to
"fully support" the OPA to the UNSC on March 19, and in his
address to the nation on March 20, Soro remained rather coy
about accepting the PM job.


5. (SBU) Abidjan is so focused on the Ouaga negotiations and
the makeup of the next government that President Gbagbo's
March 16 signing of the decree to create a joint command
center went largely unnoticed. The decree as stipulated in
the OPA is the first step to integrating the FN and
government troops. The two chiefs of staff successively held
meetings with President Gbagbo on Friday and Soro on
Saturday. Sources close to both the FANCI and the FAFN
indicate that, aside from the decree, little if anything has
been done to actually implement the joint command center
concept.

6. (C) COMMENT: There seem to be parallel processes
underway as Abidjan looks to the future of the OPA: the
formality of AU and UN endorsement of the agreement alongside
the continued negotiations between Gbagbo and Soro on the
Prime Minister's authority. Soro's hesitation to take the
post may indeed be an act (reftel D) but he has real
concerns, shared by FN heavyweights and opposition figures,
that Gbagbo would retain decisive control over the government
and armed forces. RDR leader Alassane Ouattara, while
publicly supportive of the agreement, is desperate to keep
the RHDP coalition intact and to maintain the leadership of
Bedie over the splintering PDCI. Otherwise, Ouattara fears
that the Fologo-led faction of the PDCI will support Gbagbo
in the upcoming elections. Soro's acceptance of the
Premiership in a Gbagbo-controlled government could undermine
RDR-NF cooperation in the north. The signing of the decree
by Gbagbo establishing a joint command center is a first step
in complying with OPA, but is also largely symbolic; real
integration wouldn't take place until well into the DDR
process after the elections. While the political scene

ABIDJAN 00000304 002 OF 002


continues its minuet, what is happening in Ouaga continues to
dominate the scene. END COMMENT.
Hooks