OPPOSITION LEADER OUATTARA STILL DOUBTS GBAGBO'S COMMITMENT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 001245

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID IV
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER OUATTARA STILL DOUBTS GBAGBO'S COMMITMENT TO
ELECTIONS;SEES POTENTIAL FOR UNREST

Classified By: POLCOUNS S. EIRIZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: In a December 20, conversation with Ambassador, RDR par
leader Ouattara expressed concern about ongoing delays in the deploymen
audiences foraines teams, the lack of precision about the identificatio
process and the role of technical operator SAGEM. The RDR will be prepa
a presidential election in June 2008, but Ouattara doubted that Gbagbo
live up to this commitment. Ouattara was worried about the potential fo
should elections be postponed yet again. Ouattara had just returned fro
to Ouagadougou where he said he pressed OPA Facilitator Compaore to giv
d'Ivoire's political parties a more prominent role in OPA negotiations.
previous meetings, Ouattara called on the international community to as
that Gbagbo's lives up to his promises. End Summary.


2. (C) Ambassador Nesbitt and PolCouns called on Rally of Republicans
(Rassemblement des Republicains - RDR) leader and former Prime Minister
Alassane Dramane Ouattara on December 20 to discuss the Ouagadougou Pol
Agreement (OPA). Ambassador commented on the marked drop in public dis
about the audiences foraines process (tribunals that will issue birth
certificates to persons whose births were never registered),and politi
parties' apparent shift of focus to elections. She also told Ouattara
U.S. message to the government has been and will continue to be that el
are necessary but they must be transparent.

Identification
--------------


3. (C) Ouattara said the RDR remains very concerned about delays in the
audiences foraines process, noting that 30 additional teams the Ministr
Justice promised December 11, to deploy soon were still not in the fiel
the audiences foraines process is the first step in the identification
for those who have no birth certificate, the lack of progress is especi
disappointing. Ouattara calculated that Cote d'Ivoire's electoral list
probably comprise about 8.5 million people (approximately 50% of the
population, not counting a couple of million foreigners). He estimated
there are probably 2 million Ivorians who have some documentation but w
old enough or didn't qualify to vote in 2000 and are not on the 2000 el
list. (Ouattara said that the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 in
2000; many young people were not able to register in time to be on the
Another 1 million probably have no documents at all. Ouattara's concer
whether there would be sufficient time between now and June 2008, for S
document all potential voters given that a decree specifying SAGEM's ro
not yet been issued. Ouattara said a decree laying out SAGEM's duties i
currently being drafted and that the Prime Minister hopes to reach cons
with all the political parties regarding SAGEM's role before the decree
issued. Ouattara stressed that the identification process cannot begin
until SAGEM's role is agreed upon.

Elections
--------------


4. (C) Ouattara told the Ambassador that the RDR will be ready for elec
June 2008 and will accept the outcome of a fair contest. Outtara doubte
however, that President Gbagbo would ultimately allow an election to ta
place; Ouattara said Gbagbo knows he cannot win a transparent vote. Ou
said that Gbagbo refused to hold elections one year ago despite Ouattar
having told him that the RDR would accept him as President if he won in
and fair elections. The Ambassador pointed out that many observers bel
situation has changed and that Gbagbo now calculates that he can, indee
fair election. In response, Ouattara described Gbgbo as an actor
and manipulator, but reiterated that he will recognize a Gbagbo victory
as elections are transparent. Ambassador noted that Gbagbo had met jus
previous day with the Independent Electoral Commission and wondered if
significant. Ouattara said that his information indicated that Commiss
members had avoided any substantive discussion of electoral modalities
Gbagbo in order to ensure their independence.

Possibility of Unrest
--------------


5. (C) Ouattara said he was concerned that there could be unrest in the
months if Ivorians fail to see progress on implementation of the OPA an
economic situation declines. He said that if it became clear that Gbag
not intend to hold elections, he could envision the armed forces losing
patience with the political leaders ability to manage the situation and
resorting to a coup d'etat to bring the country to elections.

Role of International Community
--------------


6. (C) Throughout the conversation Ouattara called on the international
community to exert more pressure on Gbagbo, perhaps even adopting sanct
ensure that he implements the OPA. Ouattara said Prime Minister Soro h
will but ultimately not the power to move the process forward; Gbagbo h
power and creates obstacles to block progress when he chooses. Ouattar
the Ambassador that he has asked OPA Facilitator President Blaise Compa
Burkina Faso to give the opposition political parties a more active rol
implementation. Ouattara said he argued that excluding the political p
was acceptable when the OPA's primary focus was reunifying the country

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addressing the existence of two competing armies. But the OPA had beco
predominantly political question and the major political parties should
the negotiating table. According to Ouattara, Compaore agreed that the
Consultation Framework, which includes Ouattara and Democratic Party of
d'Ivoire (Parti Democratique de la Cote d'Ivoire -PDCI) leader and form
President Henri Konan Bedie, will meet more frequently. The next meetin
occur on January 24.


7. (C) Comment: Ouattara's comments to the Ambassador echoed his Novem
conversation with Deputy Secretary of State Negroponte. Emboffs were su
at the degree to which his comments and presentation did not appear to
into account recent developments. His longstanding view of Gbagbo as a
untrustworthy opponent clearly colors his view of the President's actio
is true that the OPA sidelined the opposition, but Ouattara has also fa
use his position opposition leader to push the audiences foraines and
identification issues more forcefully. Instead, he seems to be countin
Compaore to give him a larger role in the negotiation process.
NESBITT