CROATIAN PM SANADER SAYS HE CANNOT SUPPORT THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 001392

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/SCE SAINZ AND BALIAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR BK
SUBJECT: CROATIAN PM SANADER SAYS HE CANNOT SUPPORT THE
ORIGINAL BOSNIAN CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM PACKAGE


Classified By: Ambassador Robert A. Bradtke for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: It would not be possible for him to
support the Bosnian constitutional reform package from last
spring, PM Ivo Sanader told the Ambassador November 20.
Doing so would pit him against half the BiH Croatian
community as well as the Catholic church, and would damage
him both at home and within the region, he continued. It is
in both USG and regional interests to have a strong,
Western-oriented Croatian Prime Minister, he argued;
supporting the package would completely undermine him. He
asked that the USG consider "minor changes" to the package
that would make it more palatable to the BiH Croats.


2. (C) Prime Minister Sanader called in the Ambassador
November 20 to discuss Croatian views on the Bosnian
constitutional reform package, and the letter he is expecting
from Undersecretary Burns on the topic. The Ambassador
replied that while he expected to have formal instructions
soon, the letter was not yet ready. That said, the
Ambassador expected that Washington would continue to support
the original reform package; discussion of a second package
could begin immediately after the first was completed.


3. (C) Sanader said that of the three major Bosnian Croat
groups -- HDZ, HDZ-1990, and the Catholic Church -- two of
them opposed the U.S.-brokered constitutional reform package.
HDZ leader Covic was the only one in favor, he continued,
and that was because he was hoping support for the package
would somehow help him avoid the consequences of his
corruption trial. There is no way that Sanader could support
the package under these circumstances, since it would cost
him politically in both BiH and Croatia.


4. (C) Sanader recalled the discussion of Bosnia during his
lunch with Vice President Cheney October 18; BiH Croats
already have the feeling that they are losing status vis a
vis the other communities; we cannot allow their status to be
weakened further, he said, or they will begin to see their
futures outside of BiH. A worst case scenario could see
large numbers of Bosnian Croats emigrating to Croatia or
Western Europe, which would lead to the destruction of BiH.
HDZ-1990 leaders Raguz and Ljubic, and Cardinal Puljic had
told him that only small changes to the package would be
required to satisfy the Croats in this regard.


5. (C) Ambassador replied that the USG still sees no
alternative to the original constitutional reform package.
Once the first package has been adopted serious consideration
could be given to subsequent changes. If the package is
opened for the Croats then the RS will want to make their own
changes as well.


6. (C) Sanader disagreed, noting that he has a good
relationship with RS leader Dodik and thinks he can work
something out. He noted that he had recently spoken with
Dodik, who planned to come to Zagreb in mid-December.


7. (C) Comment: Sanader clearly wants to be helpful to the
USG on BiH, and genuinely wants to see the country become
more stable. However, he is facing difficult parliamentary
elections within the next year and feels supporting the
package would be very damaging, since he would incur the
wrath of the many Bosnian Croats who can vote in Croatian
elections, or of their allies on the center-right of domestic
Croatian politics.
BRADTKE