CROATS WELCOME DIALOGUE WITH US ON BOSNIAN ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 001247

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DICARLO, EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK HR REGIONAL ISSUES
SUBJECT: CROATS WELCOME DIALOGUE WITH US ON BOSNIAN ISSUES

Classified By: Political Officer Tom Selinger for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: During an October 9-10 visit to
Zagreb, US Ambassador to BiH McElhaney updated top officials
on USG views regarding BiH's future. He also called on
Croatian political leaders to help encourage Bosnian Croats
to support future constitutional reform efforts. The GoC,
the Office of the President, and various political parties
all reacted positively and agreed that BiH was not
sustainable under its current structure.


2. (C) After years of our warnings to stay out of BiH
politics due to the expansionist views of the wartime
government, a USG proposal for engagement may have initially
given Croatian politicians pause. However, during the
Ambassador's visit, all appeared to understand the
constructive role they could now play in making BiH a viable
neighbor and sustainable home to Bosnian Croats. END SUMMARY
AND COMMENT.

GoC GOAL: HELP BOSNIAN CROATS SEE FUTURE WITHIN BiH
-------------- --------------


3. (C) MFA State Secretary Hidajet Biscevic noted the GoC's
concern over the future of BiH and welcomed Ambassador
McElhaney's call for a closer dialogue with the USG on
Zagreb's role there. According to Biscevic, if Bosnian
Croats see no future in BiH they will come to Croatia,
straining Croatia's capacity to absorb migrants and throwing
the already delicate ethnic dynamics in BiH out of balance.


4. (C) Biscevic said the GoC supports constitutional reform
in BiH and sees no need for a third entity. He outlined five
key elements of the policy of PM Ivo Sanader and his
government toward BiH:
- Supporting the territorial integrity of BiH,
- Finding a new internal architecture for BiH through
constitutional arrangements that is both democratic and
protects all constituent peoples,
- Firmly supporting a continued role in BiH for the
international community (the Office of the High
Representative should not go away too soon),
- Engaging the Catholic Church as unifying force among
Bosnian Croats (PM Sanader sees this as even more important
now that political parties are split),and
- Moving BiH's efforts to enter a Stabilization and
Association Agreement with the EU forward (Sanader intends to
raise this issue in Washington when he visits the week of
October 16).

PRESIDENT'S ADVISOR: KOMSIC ELECTION MAY PROVE POSITIVE
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Budimir Loncar, President Stjepan Mesic's special
advisor on international relations, said that while the
election of Social Democrat Zeljko Komsic as the Croatian
member of the BiH tripartite presidency has been
controversial among Bosnian Croats, it may ultimately be
positive that he was not the candidate of any single Croat
faction. Loncar called Komsic a courageous man of principle
and said President Mesic knows him well. Even PM Sanader,
who supported HDZ 1990 leader Bozo Ljubic, has reacted
relatively positively to Komsic's election, according to
Loncar. At Ambassador McElhaney's suggestion, Loncar agreed
to advise President Mesic to invite Komsic to Zagreb for a
state visit.


6. (C) Loncar suggested that Republika Srpska PM Milorad
Dodik be encouraged to be more active federally -- even to
become BiH PM. The international community should ignore his
rhetoric about RS independence, according to Loncar, and try
to involve him in common projects that will lead to EU
integration. In an upcoming visit to Belgrade, Mesic will
ask Serbian President Boris Tadic to encourage Dodik to be
active in Sarajevo.


7. (C) Ambassador McElhaney expressed skepticism that Dodik
would take the PM job in Sarajevo or even put a strong person
there, as the failure of constitutional reforms has left that
position with too little power. Loncar replied that it is
critical that the new PM is a Serb who supports
constitutional amendments. As the Croat community is next in
line for the Presidency, Loncar said the Foreign Minister
should be a Bosniak, such as Zlatko Dizdarevic, former BiH
ambassador in Zagreb.

OPPOSITION PARTIES: NO MORE POLITICAL GAMES WITH BIH CROATS
-------------- --------------


ZAGREB 00001247 002 OF 002



8. (C) Croatian People's Party (HNS) President Vesna Pusic
told Ambassador McElhaney that Bosnian Croats no longer trust
political parties, as they have been used as pawns both in
BiH and in Croatia. She said parties other than the Croatian
Democratic Union (HDZ) will have to win their trust with
policies that protect their interests but also lead to EU
integration.


9. (C) Social Democratic Party (SDP) foreign policy advisor
Zoran Milanovic said his party hesitated before it supported
the campaign of its sister party in BiH to elect Komsic, but
ultimately got involved and intends to help present him to
the Croatian public as a legitimate representative of the
Bosnian Croat community. Komsic, who is not yet well known
within Croatia, will appear on a popular weekend television
talk show in Zagreb on October 15.


10. (C) Milanovic noted that Bosnians with Croatian
citizenship can vote in Croatian parliamentary elections,
expected in November 2007, and traditionally lean heavily in
favor of the HDZ. As a result, the SDP must be careful not
to become too active in BiH or it risks galvanizing HDZ
supporters there.


11. (C) Former Croatian Ambassador to the UN Ivan Simonovic
stressed that European integration should be the key driver
of stability in BiH and is something that Croatian
politicians could promote. When the BiH public has a 15-year
vision of EU membership, which will result in standards that
protect the rights of all people, they will realize that
their inter-ethnic disputes are not worth it.

FEARS ABOUT DODIK'S REFERENDUM
--------------


12. (C) In separate meeting requested by Security and
Intelligence Agency (SOA) head Tomislav Karamarko, the
intelligence chief expressed pessimism about RS, saying he
believes Dodik intends to initiate a referendum for RS
independence in the aftermath of Kosovo final status.
Karamarko fears this will be seriously destabilizing.
Ambassador McElhaney noted that the USG has sent a strong
warning to Dodik not to pursue a referendum. The
international community still has considerable pull in BiH,
the Ambassador reminded, and will not hesitate to use the
Bonn Powers to prevent a referendum.


13. (U) Ambassador McElhaney has cleared this cable.
DELAWIE