GOOD POLITICAL CLIMATE IN ARMENIA FOR A DEAL ON N-K

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000688

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV OTRA OSCE AJ AM
SUBJECT: GOOD POLITICAL CLIMATE IN ARMENIA FOR A DEAL ON N-K

REF: STATE 78834

Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) We look forward to welcoming you to Yerevan again.
Given your familiarity with the Nagorno-Karabakh
negotiations, we would like to take this opportunity to
update you on domestic political developments, some of which
may influence Armenian decision-making with respect to N-K.


2. (C) Despite the pending resignation of National Assembly
Speaker Artur Baghdasarian and his party's withdrawal from
the governing coalition (ref B),Armenia's political scene
remains remarkably calm, a testament to the power President
Robert Kocharian wields. As Armenia's N-K
negotiator-in-chief, and as an N-K veteran, Kocharian is
well-positioned to both accept a settlement and enforce its
conditions. A USG-funded national voter survey concluded May
7 found Kocharian's approval rating remained strong, as did
public concern about the consequences of a failure to
peacefully resolve the N-K conflict. The survey found
respondents feared the potential for Azeri military build-up
and overwhelmingly favored a quick, peaceful solution to the
N-K conflict through negotiation rather than force. The time
for settlement was now, respondents told pollsters, a strong
argument for your May 25-26 discussions in Yerevan. End
Summary.

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KOCHARIAN MAINTAINS FIRM GRIP ON POWER
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3. (C) On May 12, National Assembly Speaker Artur
Baghdasarian formally announced his party's withdrawal from
the governing coalition and his intention to step down as
Speaker. His announcement ended intense speculation about
his falling out with President Robert Kocharian and his
party's (Orinats Yerkir) hemorrhage of members in the
National Assembly. Orinats Yerkir's departure from the
governing coalition neither hinders the government's ability
to push through its programs nor changes Kocharian's personal
control of key issues, including N-K negotiations. The
almost certain government nominee for Speaker is current
Deputy Speaker Tigran Torosyan, a member of the Republican
Party (Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan's party),who
recently told us that he believed the government should do
more to prepare the public for an N-K settlement.


4. (C) The crowded constellation of small political groupings
emerging ahead of the 2007 parliamentary and 2008 president
elections has not affected Kocharian's decision-making or
authority. Local business tycoon Gagik Tsarukian, former
"Nagorno-Karabakh Minister of Defense" Samvel Babayan, and
supporters of Prosecutor General Aghvan Hovsepian have gone
public with their plans to mobilize constituents and
negotiate with other political parties about possible
alliances. Far from a threat to Kocharian's power base,
however, these new groupings are based primarily on the
business or personal connections of their founders, and none
of them opposes the current power structure.

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GENERAL PUBLIC OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORS PEACEFUL SOLUTION NOW
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5. (C) Kocharian's approval rating remains favorable,
according to an International Republican Institute (IRI)
Armenian voter survey funded by the USG and conducted by the
Gallup Organization. According to respondents, only
unemployment outranked the N-K conflict as "the most
important issue facing Armenia." Eighty-five percent of the
respondents said they favored a peaceful solution to the N-K
conflict through negotiation rather than military force.
Seventy-one percent said they were optimistic that a peaceful
settlement could be reached and virtually all respondents
said they thought it was important to solve the N-K problem
in the near future. No respondents, however, favored
"returning" N-K to Azerbaijan. The survey provides you a
solid argument, and Kocharian good political cover, to push
the tough decisions that would settle the conflict now.
(Note: The Gallup Organization designed, coordinated, and
analyzed the USG-funded study, which included face-to-face
interviews with 1200 Armenian residents aged 18 years and
older, from a representative cross-section of society.
According to IRI and Gallup, the margin of error did not
exceed three percent. End Note.)

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OPPOSITION NOT TO "STAND IN THE WAY" OF A SETTLEMENT
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6. (C) Privately, opposition leaders including Stepan
Demirchian (People's Party),Artashes Geghamyan (National
Unity),Aram Sargsyan (Republic Party),and Vazgen Manukyan
(National Democratic Union) have told us they would not stand
in the way of a settlement, a significant departure from past
opposition platforms that would have painted any concessions
on N-K unpatriotic. Though Kocharian knows this, you might
find it useful to remind him. Conscious of his place in
history, N-K resolution is Kocharian's best, most significant
opportunity to forge a lasting legacy. (Note: Like Gallup
Survey respondents, opposition leaders have told us they are
concerned about Azeri President Ilham Aliyev's pledge to
dramatically increase defense spending. End Note.)

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COMMENT: NO BETTER TIME FOR N-K NEGOTIATIONS
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7. (C) President Robert Kocharian maintains his firm grip on
all aspects of governance in Armenia. He enters this round
of negotiations well-positioned, having demonstrated his
ability to hold course with or without governing coalition
partners. Public opinion, as judged by the Gallup
Organization, strongly favors a near-term settlement,
strongly fears the potential of Azeri military action, and
favors negotiation over military action. Likely coming to
the same conclusions about public opinions on their own,
opposition leaders privately confided they would support a
settlement. You may wish to underscore favorable public
opinion for a negotiated settlement by delivering the
N-K-specific results of the study (see para 5 above) to
Kocharian at your May 25 meeting.
EVANS