SHOOTING DISRUPTS MARCH 29 OSCE MONITORING MISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000458

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SNEC, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS OSCE AJ AM
SUBJECT: SHOOTING DISRUPTS MARCH 29 OSCE MONITORING MISSION
ON LINE OF CONTACT

REF: 05 YEREVAN 1717

Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) OSCE Special Representative Andrzej Kasprzyk told CDA
on March 31 that he called off a March 29 cease fire
monitoring event because shots were fired in the vicinity and
neither the "N-K" nor the Azeri side could account for their
origin. A report signed by OSCE Special Representatives
Andrzej Kasprzyk of the shooting (text below) will be
delivered in the coming days to the OSCE Permanent Council.
According to Kasprzyk, the situation along the line of
contact remains very tense. End Summary.

-------------- --------------
OSCE SPECIAL REP. CONFIRMS SUSPENSION OF MONITORING
-------------- --------------


2. (C) OSCE Special Representative Andrzej Kasprzyk and
Personal Representative to the OSCE Chairman in Office Peter
Keay (UK National) each led teams of monitors on the line of
contact (LOC) between N-K Armenian and Azerbaijani forces
March 29. Ambassador Kasprzyk led the team on the N-K side
and Keay led the team on the Azeri side.

-------------- --------------
FOUR SHOTS BEFORE MONITORS EXCHANGED SECURITY GUARANTEES
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Ambassador Kasprzyk suspended the monitoring event
after his team registered two single shots fired in the
vicinity of his monitoring site, a third shot when Keay's
team arrived at their positions on the Azeri side, and a
forth shot shortly thereafter. According to Kasprzyk, the
shots came from the same direction and "a great distance."
Three of the four shots were likely from a standard
semi-automatic rifle. One shot had a "much louder, deeper
sound," which Kasprzyk told us he feared was one of the new
sniper rifles he knew to be in use now on both sides of the
LOC.

--------------
"WE DID NOT DO IT"
--------------


4. (C) Local commanders from both sides separately reported
that their sides had not fired shots. Kasprzyk said the
Azeri local commander claimed that, from their positions, the
Azeri soldiers had not heard shots -- a fact Kasprzyk said he
immediately dismissed because he had personally registered
the shots. Kasprzyk said the local commander on the N-K side
was forthcoming, acknowledged he had heard the shots, and
agreed that they came from the direction of the LOC.
Kasprzyk said he judged the incident as either a "lack of
control" on the Azeri side or shots of unknown origin fired
from uncontrolled positions.

-------------- --------------
KASPRZYK: AZERIS PROVOKING CEASE FIRE VIOLATIONS
-------------- --------------


5. (C) "I am almost sure that the Azeris are provoking many
of the cease fire violations," Kasprzyk told the CDA after
returning from the monitoring mission. "The situation is
very tense," he said. The Azeri side was seeking to improve
their trench positions and was moving closer to the Armenian
side, he said. Though he said he believed that the frequency
of cease-fire events had not significantly increased, he
believed the introduction of higher-powered, higher-caliber
weapons on both sides of the line of contact had increased
the frequency of deaths and casualties.

-------------- --------------
OSCE REPORT NO. 156 ON MONITORING THE LINE OF CONTACT
-------------- --------------


6. (C) The OSCE Monitoring Report follows. (Note: Internal
paragraph markings and OSCE classification. Original in
English. End Note.) Begin text:

Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe

The Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office on
the
Conflict Dealt with by the OSCE Minsk Conference

CONFIDENTIAL

SIPDIS

Report No. 156 on Monitoring on the Line of Contact 29 March
2006

1 Basic Data on the Monitoring

1.1 Introductory remarks

The Monitoring on the LOC was initiated by the Personal
Representative (PR) of the CiO. The PR requested the
Monitoring to be held on 29 March 2006 in the vicinity of the
village of Seysulan, in the Northern part of the LOC. The
last Monitoring in this area took place on 12 January 2006
(MR 152). The aim of the Monitoring was to verify the current
situation in view of reports of intensified shooting
incidents along this part of the LOC.

The Monitoring was canceled before the first set of security
guarantees as a result of shots heard in the vicinity of the
Monitoring site.

1.2 Monitoring Requests and Security Guarantees

On 17 March 2006, a Field Assistant presented a Monitoring
Request to the Azerbaijani MFA. The Azerbaijani side
responded positively on 27 March and offered security
guarantees in their response. A corresponding request was
presented to the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) authorities on 20
March 2006. They responded positively on 24 March in a letter
that also included security guarantees.

1.3 Place of the Monitoring

The Monitoring on the LOC was due to take place east of the
village of Seysulan in the northern part of the LOC.

Team No.1 (NK side)

OSCE Monitoring Team
Amb. Andrzej Kasprzyk, Personal Representative of the CiO
(Poland)
Lt. Col. Imre Palatinus, Office Co-ordinator (Hungary)
Olexander Samarskyi, Field Assistant (Ukraine)

Escort Personnel

A. Baghryan, "MFA"
Maj. M. Arushunyan, "MOD"
Lt. Col. N. Avanesyan, local commander
Lt. Col. S. Ambartsumyan, local commander

Team No.2 Azerbaijani side)

OSCE Monitoring Team
Peter Keay, Field Assistant (United Kingdom) Harri Eronen,
Field Assistant (Finland)

Escort Personnel

O. Ismayil-Zade, MFA
Capt. R. Kerimov, MoD
Lt. Col. G. Guseynov, local commander
Maj. M. Qasimov, deputy local commander


2. Detailed account of the Monitoring

2.1 Course of the Monitoring

The two Teams traveled in a total of four clearly marked OSCE
vehicles, two on the Azerbaijani and two on the NK side.
General visibility was good, up to 20 kilometers, and weather
conditions were good. As Team 2 was traveling to the position
from where commanders were due to give the first set of
security guarantees, Team 1, already at its covered position,
registered two single shots fired in the vicinity of the
Monitoring site. After Team 2 arrived at their position, a
third shot was registered by Team 1. The PR requested both
sides to investigate the source of the firing and received
confirmation from both sides that no shots had been fired
from their positions at the Monitoring site or neighboring
positions. The Azerbaijani local commander also informed that
no shots were heard by his servicemen or at adjacent sectors.
As this information did not correspond with the fact that

shots had been clearly heard by Team 1, the PR took the
decision to cancel the Monitoring for security reasons.

Team 1

Team 1 met the local military commanders in Mardakert-Agdere
and was given a briefing on the situation on the LOC. The two
vehicles of Team 1, escorted by one vehicle from the NK side
moved to a covered position and where they halted to obtain
security guarantees. Three single shots were registered by
the Team. As Team 1 was waiting to leave, a fourth shot was
registered.

Team 2

Team 2 was given a briefing in Terter by the Deputy Head of
the Local Executive and military commanders. After the
briefing, the two vehicles of Team 2, escorted by one vehicle
from the Azerbaijani side, moved to a point approximately 3
km north of the village of Kapanly where they halted to
obtain security guarantees. At this point, the Team was
informed by Team 1 that shots had been heard in the vicinity
of the Monitoring site and the Monitoring was halted. After
the PR requested information from the Azerbaijani side, the
local commander confirmed with officers at the Monitoring
site and neighboring commanders that no shots had been fired.
Local and neighboring commanders also informed that no shots
had been heard.

2.2 Information obtained during Monitoring as stated by the
respective Parties

Team No.1 (NK side):

Cease-fire violations

Team 1 was given a list of fourteen cease-fire violations on
the whole of the LOC since the last Monitoring on 10 March

2006. Ten of these violations were said to have taken place
in the Mardakert/ Agdere sector, where this Monitoring was
held. Of the remaining violations, three were reported in the
Hadrut sector and one in the Agdam sector. No casualties were
recorded. According to local commanders assault rifles,
sniper rifles and light and heavy machine guns were used by
the Azerbaijani side. It was stated that the situation is
most tense in the proximity of the Azerbaijani villages of
Kapanly, Tapkarakoyunlu, Borsunlu and Alhanly.

Other Military Information

Local commanders stated that the Azerbaijani side has been
conducting engineering works, continuing to fortify its
positions and move them forward. According to them, this
movement forward has created disorder within Azerbaijani
units and as a result on one occasion they even shot at each
other. Local commanders expressed concern at the proximity of
the positions. They stated that as a result, the Azerbaijani
side was able to use a sub-machine gun's grenade launcher to
fire into NK trenches.

Mines

No mine incidents were reported on the NK side, but the Team
was given a list of five mine explosions that were said to
have taken place on the Azerbaijani side of the LOC since the
last Monitoring.

Civil Affairs

The Team clearly saw a shepherd and a flock of sheep on the
Azerbaijani side approximately 700 meters behind the LOC.


Team No.2 (Azerbaijani side)

Cease-fire violations:

The local commander stated that the situation in this part of
the LOC has not improved since the last Monitoring in the
area on 12 January, and tension remains high. There are
almost daily cease-fire violations, both during the day and
night. Firing mainly comes from Seysulan, Levonarkh and
Talysh, using automatic rifles, and light- and heavy-caliber
machine guns. He added that the use of sniper fire has
significantly increased since the beginning of the year,
especially from destroyed buildings in the village of

Seysulan. In the past six weeks, the NK side has begun firing
into the village of Kiziloba (formerly Karmiravan) deserted
by civilians, possibly targeting cattle or simply for target
practice. The local commander stated that there has been no
movement of positions, although he added that the NK side
continues to strengthen existing ones. Since the last
Monitoring on 12 January, four servicemen were reported to
have been killed on this part of the LOC, two in Kiziloba (7
and 22 March),and two in Jamelya (17 March). Four soldiers
were also reported to have been injured on this part of the
LOC since the last Monitoring, in Gasangaya (11 February and
2 March) and in Jamelya (17 and 19 March). The local
commander reported that the violation of the cease-fire on 17
March in Jamelya, which resulted in casualties, lasted for
more than 40 minutes. He stated that the increase in shooting
by the NK side may have been an attempt to disrupt the
Azerbaijani Novruz Bayram holiday. No civilian casualties
were reported. According to the local commander this is as a
result of the fact that civilians are too afraid to work in
the fields. Both the Deputy Head of the Local Executive and
the local commander stressed that regular Monitorings help to
reduce tension on the LOC. The local commander stated that
before Monitorings, the NK side opens fire in the exact place
of the where the Monitoring is due to take place.

Mines: No mine incidents were reported on the Azerbaijani
side.

Civil Affairs

The Deputy Head of the Local Executive reiterated that firing
from the NK side prevents villagers from working in the
fields situated close to the LOC. The NK side often cuts off
the irrigation canals so that the villagers do not have
permanent access to water. He underlined the difficult
conditions of the civilians living in villages close to the
LOC, especially as spring approaches and people need to start
working in the fields. He stated that the four villages of
Kapanly, Borsunlu, Chaily and Kasangaya are the worst
affected. The Deputy Head of the Local Executive stated that
as a result of the increase of sniper fire, local civilians
have had to reinforce their homes. He added that the road to
Kapanly is under continuous threat from shooting. On 12
March, a tractor was fired upon as it traveled along the
road. He stated that although the local population are fully
supportive of efforts to resolve the conflict peacefully,
people are also ready to take back territory by force if
necessary.


3. Conclusions

The situation in this area appears mostly unchanged since the
last Monitoring and tension remains high. The reported number
of casualties, including an unusually high number of
fatalities is a serious cause for concern. The proximity of
the front lines and the apparent increase in the use of
snipers contribute to continuous tension on this part of the
LOC.

The fact that shots were registered immediately prior to the
Monitoring, forcing it to be canceled, once again highlights
the need for vigilance by the Monitoring Teams. The parties
are requested to take all possible measures to ensure the
safety and security of OSCE personnel. Local commanders must
guarantee that sufficient safety and security measures are in
place to control units in the Monitoring area and neighboring
units.

Normal life for the civilian population in the area continues
to be impeded by the situation especially due to beginning of
the spring agricultural works and locals are anxious for an
improvement.

ANDRZEJ KASPRZYK
Personal Representative of the CiO

End Text of OSCE Monitoring Report.
GODFREY