Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06YEREVAN432
2006-03-27 09:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

EUR A/S FRIED DISCUSSES N-K, ENERGY SECURITY AND

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR IR AM RU 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000432 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PASS EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IR AM RU
SUBJECT: EUR A/S FRIED DISCUSSES N-K, ENERGY SECURITY AND
DEMOCRACY WITH ARMENIAN POLITICAL ELITE

Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000432

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PASS EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IR AM RU
SUBJECT: EUR A/S FRIED DISCUSSES N-K, ENERGY SECURITY AND
DEMOCRACY WITH ARMENIAN POLITICAL ELITE

Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) During an informal dinner March 15 with a group of
Armenian political leaders, visiting EUR Assistant Secretary
Daniel Fried underlined the USG's policy that strong
democracies were better equipped to solve the region's most
pressing problems, especially the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
and to ensure energy security. Political leaders from across
the spectrum, even the traditional "hawks," agreed that
peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was a
prerequisite for real economic progress in the region. They
offered differing opinions about whether or not the
unrecognized authorities in N-K should be a party in the
negotiations, Azerbaijan's commitment to a peaceful
settlement and the level of political will within the GOAM to
end the conflict. Opposition political leaders expressed
concerns about the state of democracy in Armenia following
last year's flawed constitutional referendum and some blamed
the lack of results of the most recent round of negotiations
in Rambouillet on the "illegitimacy" of the Kocharian
administration. End Summary.

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POLITICAL LEADERS UNITE -- AT LEAST FOR DINNER
-------------- -


2. (C) Ambassador Evans hosted a dinner for EUR Assistant
Secretary Daniel Fried and his delegation with fifteen of

SIPDIS
Armenia's most influential political leaders in Yerevan on
March 15. Joining A/S Fried were Ambassador Evans, EUR/SNEC
Ambassador Steven Mann, EUR/CARC Director Elizabeth Rood and
EUCOM J-5 Colonel Anderson. Discussion focused on the status
of negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh, energy security in the
region and the state of democracy in Armenia. Guests
included representatives from the full range of political
parties, both pro-government and opposition. (Note: Such
gatherings of political leaders, given ongoing pre-election
posturing, a splintered opposition and tenuous relations with
and between governing coalition members, are a rarity in

Yerevan. There are few opportunities outside the National
Assembly or ceremonial events where they come together for
substantive roundtable discussions. End Note.)

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NAGORNO-KARABAKH
--------------


3. (C) Responding to questions about the results of the
latest set of talks between Presidents Kocharian and Aliyev,
A/S Fried and Ambassador Mann said they remained hopeful
about the future of the negotiations and warned against
confusing lack of success at Rambouillet with failure of the
entire process. They said they had conveyed this message
while in Baku and would call for both governments to curb
militaristic rhetoric and instead concentrate on which
components the sides could solve by using a step-by-step
approach. A/S Fried reported that he and Colonel Anderson
had laid out explicitly for President Aliyev that a military
solution was not an option and that Azerbaijan should not
count on a military victory as a foregone conclusion.
Ambassador Mann added that levels of frustration in
Azerbaijani over N-K seemed to be at a 25-year high. He
characterized Aliyev's approach to N-K resolution as
business-like, closer to his innate instincts than those of a
"military man." Both A/S Fried and Ambassador Mann said that
they had met with the other OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs in
Washington and they had the co-chairs' support for exploring
a full range of approaches to the settlement.


4. (C) Political leaders offered differing opinions on the
causes of the conflict and how the GOAM should approach the
negotiation process. Former N-K military figure and
political party founder Samvel Babayan said that any
successful resolution must include the authorities in
Nagorno-Karabakh as a party to the negotiations. Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF - "Dashnaksutyun")
representative Armen Rustamyan said that the international
community was unsuccessful in the N-K resolution process
because it was focusing on the consequences, not the causes,
of the conflict. He named N-K's "unjust inclusion" in
Azerbaijan as the root cause of the war and said Armenia
would not ever allow it to remain within Azerbaijani control.
Artashes Tumanian, who until recently was Kocharian's Chief
of Staff, expressed concerns that the USG might link N-K
resolution to its overall Iran policy. A/S Fried responded
to this last point with his prediction that N-K resolution
would enhance all aspects of Armenia's security, including
energy issues involving Iran. He assured those present that
the USG was genuinely concerned about solving regional
conflicts such as N-K and that even if Iran today walked away
from its nuclear ambitions, the USG "would still be here
trying to solve this problem."

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ENERGY SECURITY
--------------


5. (C) Galust Sahakyan, a pro-Kocharian representative from
the Republican Party, said that critics of Armenia's foreign
or domestic policy must consider the "blockade situation" in
which Armenia found itself. He opined that Armenia's closed
borders "weighed heavily" on Armenia's already complex set of
energy security questions. Opposition leader Artashes
Geghamian remarked that the recent energy crisis in the
Caucasus revealed a need for countries like Armenia to take
responsibility for their democratic development to avoid over
reliance on other countries (referring to Russia) for energy
security. A/S Fried addressed these issues by saying that
the USG believed that energy security in the region would
come from open, non-corrupt energy systems that were used for
economic, rather then political purposes. He called on
Armenia to be as self-reliant as possible on this and other
policy issues, as this was in line with USG goals for
post-Soviet countries.

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ELECTIONS AND DEMOCRACY
--------------


6. (C) Political leaders' opinions varied widely on the state
of democracy in Armenia. Opposition MP Hrant Khachatryan
blamed Armenia's stunted democratic development on the need
of the Armenian people to "consistently make concessions on
democracy so that leaders could have the flexibility to find
the best possible solution to the N-K conflict." Opposition
leader Hovannes Hovannissian offered a different spin on the
issue. He said the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan,
because of their "illegitimate" power, were unable to garner
sufficient domestic support to come to a solution at
Rambouillet. Shavarsh Kocharyan, an opposition MP and until
recently one of Armenia's parliamentary representatives to
the Council of Europe, called the upcoming elections in 2007
(parliamentary) and 2008 (presidential) the next big chance
for Armenia to improve the state of democracy. He called on
the USG to tailor its proposed package of democracy
assistance to include a heavy international observer presence
and high-end technologies to monitor balloting. Ambassador
Evans outlined some of the aspects of USAID's USD 7.6
million, multi-year program for election-related assistance
and assured political leaders that USG support would address
all these areas. He added that success of the program,
however, would depend on political will from the GOAM and all
political parties.

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COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) While conversation flowed smoothly, there was obvious
apprehension and a lack of up-to-date information among
political leaders about Nagorno-Karabakh and the latest stage
of negotiations. Their comments underscored the far reaching
impact that the issue has on every aspect of local politics
and the need to continually engage a broad cross-section of
civil society if any peace deal will garner sufficient
political and public support. These men agree on very
little, but left no doubt that N-K remains at the top of
everyone's political agenda.


8. (U) A/S Fried has cleared this message.
GODFREY