ARMENIA FALLING SHORT ON AI DETECTION AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000330

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR OES, EUR/CARC - DSTAVROPOULOS, EUR/PGI - CCONNORS
PLEASE PASS TO USAID - NBLANCHET

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2016
TAGS: KFLU TBIO SENV ECON AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA FALLING SHORT ON AI DETECTION AND
PREVENTION

REF: A) YEREVAN 208 B) YEREVAN 268

Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) We are increasingly concerned that there are non-human
cases of avian influenza (AI) in Armenia that have gone
undetected and/or unreported. This cable details a series of
incidents which collectively call into question the GOAM's
willingness and ability to respond to reports of suspect
cases, actively test for AI, provide accurate information to
the public and counter misinformation from other sources.
These troubling incidents underscore the immediate need for
long-term assistance to help the GOAM understand and respond
to this critical threat. End Summary.

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GOAM SLOW TO BEGIN AI TESTING
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2. (SBU) Despite significant pressure from the USG and other
donors, the Armenian government has been slow to adopt an
effective active surveillance system and has failed to
diagnose a single case of AI. In January 2006, USAID
sponsored a second trip to Armenia by avian flu expert Dr.
Elizabeth Krushinskie (reftels). During her visit,
Krushinskie trained local veterinarians and representatives
from the Ministry of Agriculture on rapid assay field tests
to identify potential cases of AI. She provided the
government with 20 testing kits capable of testing 400
samples. She also provided shipping containers and training
on how to collect and ship samples to an international
reference laboratory.


3. (C) On February 28, the Chair of the Armenian
Inter-Ministrial Taskforce and Deputy Minister of Agriculture
told us that only two of the tests kits had been used and
that they had been used to experiment with the technology,
not to actually test dead birds. We explained to the
Minister that additional USG assistance would be tied to the
government's proper use of the equipment already provided and
urged him to immediately begin testing dead and sick birds
which met the AI case definition developed by Krushinskie and
the State Veterinary Service in January.

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VILLAGERS TAKE MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS
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4. (SBU) On March 2, USDA local staff member Levon
Gyuikhasyan traveled with a Ministry of Agriculture Team to
two villages near the Turkish-Armenian border. Gyuikhasyan
said that the Ministry of Agriculture Team did interview
farmers based on the surveys designed by Krushinskie and were
told there were no sick or dead chickens in either village.
Based on his observations and responses to the surveys,
Gyuikhasyan estimated that backyard poultry owners in these
two villages had killed approximately 60 percent of their
flocks because they were concerned about bird flu. The
villagers reported either eating or freezing the birds they
had killed and indicated that they plan to buy new chickens
once the AI problem was resolved. (Note: Many Armenians
both in and outside of government appear erroneously to view
AI as a short-term problem that will somehow go away either
after the spring migration season or in the near future. End
Note.)

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LOCAL VETERINARIAN ADVISES VILLAGERS TO KILL THEIR BIRDS
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5. (SBU) World Vision, an international NGO implementing
assistance programs throughout rural Armenia, recently
reported to USAID that some of the farmers they work with had
been instructed by a local veterinarian to kill their birds.
The farmers were participants in a World Vision project which
required that they share eggs with needy people in their
communities and were concerned that if they followed the
veterinarian's advice they would not be able to fulfill their
obligations under the program. World Vision also received a
letter from the Tavush Regional Veterinary Service asking for
assistance to dig a large pit for dead birds. It was not
clear from the letter whether there were large numbers of
dead birds in the region or if this was a preemptive request.

YEREVAN 00000330 002 OF 003



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GOAM SEEKS TO EXPLAIN AWAY OR DENY BIRD DEATHS
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6. (C) AI diagnosis in Armenia is particularly challenging
because the poultry disease Newcastle, which also can cause
large die-offs, is endemic and has a similar clinical
presentation to AI. Krushinskie, therefore, instructed the
government to test all apparent Newcastle bird deaths for AI
using the rapid tests we provided. When we asked if the
tests were being used in such cases, the Deputy Minister of
Agriculture told us no birds had died of Newcastle and so no
test had been conducted. A representative from the European
Commission who has worked with the Minister of Agriculture
for a number of years to develop a National Animal Disease
Surveillance System told us that this was not accurate.
While he was not able to provide data concerning specific
die-offs, he said he was certain that there had been
suspicious bird deaths during the time in question.


7. (SBU) The Ministry has also tried to explain away reported
bird deaths. We heard numerous rumors about five dead storks
found in the Ararat region near the Armenian-Turkish border
in late February. When we asked the Ministry of Agriculture
about the reports, we were told that four wild geese had died
in the region, two from gunshot wounds and two from worms.
The Ministry claimed that all four birds were found in the
same area on the same day. A press local article on March 2
reported that there was a mass die-off of crows on the banks
of a river in southern Armenia. According to the story, the
State Veterinary Service responded to the reports but only
found one dead crow at the site and diagnosed the cause of
death as beriberi. (Note: Although beriberi is a human
disease cause by a thyroid deficiency, there is a similar
disease called "polyneuritis" which affects birds. End
Note.)

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APPARENTLY OVERWHELMED, AI HOTLINE GIVES POOR ADVICE
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8. (SBU) At our urging, the GOAM established an AI hotline
for citizens to report cases of dead birds. A few weeks ago
the hotline number was changed, despite the fact that all the
publicity materials produced by both the GOAM and the donor
community listed the original number. The GOAM failed to
notify us about this change and, when we complained, said
that the decision had been taken by a low-level functionary
who was not aware of the potential consequences and agreed to
have the original number restored. Despite the number
change, we have heard numerous reports of the hotline giving
callers poor advice. For example, the school nurse at a
school attended by the child of an Embassy employee called
the hotline when a dead bird was found on school property.
She said she was initially told to pick up the bird, place it
in a plastic bag and bury it. When she complained that she
did not want to touch the bird, she was told to set it on
fire. We have also heard reports of callers being told, "We
are too busy. Deal with it (the dead bird) yourself."


9. (SBU) When we brought these stories to the attention of
the Deputy Minister of Agriculture, he was visibly upset and
said he would take immediate action to resolve the situation.
(Note: With the reports of dead birds apparently on the
increase, it is unlikely that the Ministry has the capacity
and resources to respond to every case and we have offered to
assist the Ministry in developing a training program for
hotline operators so they can identify suspicious bird deaths
which require follow-up and can provide appropriate advice to
callers. End Note.)

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POULTRY INDUSTRY REP. ATTACKS UNICEF FOR CAUSING PANIC
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10. (SBU) UNICEF has been the leading organization on public
health outreach related to AI and has produced fliers and a
school outreach campaign to inform citizens about AI and safe
food handling (reftels). All of UNICEF's materials conform
to World Health Organization guidelines and were vetted and
approved by the Ministries of Health and Education prior to
distribution. According to UNICEF country director Sheldon
Yett, on the evening of February 28, a leading commercial
poultry producer and member of Parliament appeared on
national television denouncing the UNICEF materials, claiming
that they were inaccurate and were causing panic. UNICEF

YEREVAN 00000330 003 OF 003


complained to the Inter-Ministerial AI taskforce on March 2
and was told, "Don't worry, we will take care of this." To
date, the GOAM has yet to respond to or refute this charge.
We are working with UNICEF to set up a meeting with
commercial poultry farmers where UNICEF can explain how the
safe food handling message actually benefits the poultry
industry.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) Given the fact that all of Armenia's neighbors have
confirmed cases of AI, it would be extraordinary were there
no H5N1 in Armenia. We believe that the lack of a diagnosis
is a result of the GOAM's failure to test for the disease.
We continue to push the government to begin testing and
active surveillance. As a stop-gap measure, USDA has
assigned a local employee on a part-time basis to work with
the Ministry of Agriculture to ensure that the tests provided
by avian flu expert Krushinksie are being used. Krushinskie
is scheduled to return to Armenia on March 13 and USAID is
also sponsoring an expert to train the GOAM on proper culling
and disposal techniques. Unfortunately, there is increasing
evidence that the true impediment to AI diagnosis and
prevention in Armenia is not only a lack of resources and
capacity, but also a lack of political will. We will
continue to express our disappointment at the slow pace of
the GOAM's response to this threat and encourage the
government to fully engage on this issue. We have requested
funding for a full-time, long-term (one year minimum) avian
flu expert (ref A) and believe that this person will be in a
unique position to maintain pressure on the GOAM to respond
appropriately to this threat while also providing needed
training and resources.
EVANS