Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06YEREVAN1603
2006-11-14 13:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

RUSSIAN DIPLOMAT WARNS ARMENIA AGAINST "ELECTION

Tags:  PREL PHUM RU AM 
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VZCZCXRO8267
RR RUEHDBU
DE RUEHYE #1603 3181304
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 141304Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4405
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1151
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0400
C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 001603 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM RU AM
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN DIPLOMAT WARNS ARMENIA AGAINST "ELECTION
REVOLUTION"


Classified By: Poloff Masha Herbst for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

-------
SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 001603

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM RU AM
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN DIPLOMAT WARNS ARMENIA AGAINST "ELECTION
REVOLUTION"


Classified By: Poloff Masha Herbst for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) A Russian diplomat delivered a strong anti-Western
message at the Wilton Park Conference in Yerevan November 7.
While discussing Russia's foreign policy vis a vis each of
the South Caucasus countries, he praised Azerbaijani
"independence," blasted Georgian nationalism, and warned
Armenia against a "color" revolution during the upcoming
elections. Kelin's neo-colonialist remarks were received
with much skepticism here, but should serve as a caution to
any in attendance who might have thought Russia a benign
regional power. This cable is classified in deference to
conference rules that all discussion be off the record. END
SUMMARY

--------------
ON THE UNITED STATES
--------------


2. (C) Andrei Kelin, the director of the Russian MFA's South
Caucasus department, told conference participants that while
the U.S. and Russia weren't exactly fighting in the South
Caucasus, they have different interests. He mentioned the
United States' distance from the region, and said obliquely
that he was not certain it was "suitable for every country in
the world to promote democracy." He said the best policy was
a mixture of eastern and western approaches. "Unconditional
pro-Western orientation gives only harm to people, economics,
and relationships with neighbors," Kelin said.

--------------
ON ARMENIA
--------------


3. (C) Kelin painted his country as Armenia's earnest
benefactor, saying Russia was doing its best to help the GOAM
negotiate peacefully with Turkey and Azerbaijan. He said
that, while the GOR didn't have much influence in either
situation, it would continue its efforts. That said, Kelin
turned to the upcoming elections, clearly a more ominous
topic in his mind. "When you have a democratic society and
an opposition that is strong, it is always a troubled
period," he said. Kelin said pointedly that Russia hoped
Armenia would "not go through a revolution in elections," and
that he did not believe a revolution would contribute to the
country's stability and prosperity.

--------------
ON GEORGIA
--------------


4. (C) Kelin told conference participants somewhat derisively
that Georgia's current policy was rooted in nationalism and a
"pro-Western orientation." He said Russia observed that
Georgia's primary goal was to reintegrate South Ossetia and
Abkhazia by means of "alienation of Russia." Kelin said
Russia had no choice but to pursue a "hard line" with
Georgia, and mentioned during the question and answer period
that, while Russia was currently "very far" from imposing
sanctions on Georgia, the Russian parliament was drafting
legislation that would create just such a mechanism. Kelin
claimed there had been an exponential increase in Georgian
military spending, but his figures were rebutted by a
Tbilisi-based British diplomat who said Kelin's figures were
very exaggerated.

--------------
ON AZERBAIJAN
--------------


5. (C) Kelin took a positive view of Azerbaijan's economic
and political potential. He lauded what he called President
Ilham Aliyev's "strong authority" in Azerbaijan, and said the
country has good potential if it continues its "independent
policy."
GODFREY