KOCHARIAN COMPLAINS TO EU AMBASSADORS ABOUT N-K

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001530

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (BRYZA) AND EUR/ACE (ADAMS)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2011
TAGS: PGOV PREL OSCE AM
SUBJECT: KOCHARIAN COMPLAINS TO EU AMBASSADORS ABOUT N-K
AND RUSSIA-GEORGIA, COMMITS TO OSCE OBSERVERS


Classified By: CDA A.F.Godfrey for reason 1.4 (b, d)

Summary
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1. (C) In a meeting with EU Heads of Mission on October 27,
President Kocharian was deeply pessimistic about chances for
a settlement on Nagorno-Karabakh, resigned that Armenia would
pay a greater cost for poor Russia-Georgia relations than
either of the two parties, and expressed some frustration at
U.S. calls for early OSCE observers for elections, but
committed to an invitation in due course. End Summary.

EU Heads of Mission Meet with Kocharian
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2. We got detailed read-outs of President Kocharian's
semi-annual meeting with EU Ambassadors resident in Yerevan
from the UK Ambassador, Polish Ambassador and also from one
of President Kocharian's key staffers. Both Ambassadors said
that the President seemed generally pessimistic and gloomy on
the eve of his visit to Moscow.

Negative on Nagorno-Karabakh
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3. (C) The President was reportedly deeply pessimistic about
any chances for success in negotiations for a settlement on
N-K. He said that he would not meet with President Aliyev
and that the only reason FM Oskanian had met with FM
Mammadyarov in Paris on October 24 was because of his deep
respect for the Minsk Group co-chairs, who had asked him to
allow the meeting to go ahead. He called the GUAM group
action at UNGA a "manipulation" and "would not stand for it."
He said that while he had been charged by the people
residing in Nagorno-Karabakh to negotiate on their behalf,
Armenia's next president would likely not have this mandate;
Azerbaijan would have to negotiate directly with the "NKR."
In response to a question about why Armenia had not done more
to prepare its population for peace, Kocharian stated plainly
that he did not think it appropriate when "he might have to
mobilize" Armenia's citizens for a very different purpose.

Russia - Georgia
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4. (C) Kocharian said that he was deeply concerned about
the impact on Armenia of deteriorating relations between
Russia and Georgia, but that Armenia would not take sides.
While he said that the effects of the "blockade" on Armenia
were so far not serious, he did not know how long Armenia
would remain insulated. He expressed frustration at the
level of personal animosity between leaders in Russia and
Georgia and declared that Armenia was more interested in good
relations between Russia and Georgia than either Russia or
Georgia was. When asked if he would consider a mediator's
role, Kocharian said he would consider it, but that would be
a risky step, and could result in worsening relations with
one or even both sides.

On Election Observers and Kocharian's Anti-American Tirade
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5. (C) When pressed about Armenia's plans to invite
long-term observers for elections expected to take place in
May 2007, Kocharian became agitated and emotional. He said
that "of course" the government would invite both long-term
and short-term observers, but Armenia's internal procedures
were not yet complete. He complained about calls for early
invitations by certain visitors (a clear reference to USOSCE
Ambassador Finley's recent visit) and pressed EU Ambassadors
to ensure that the majority of observers were "not all from
one country" as they had been in the past.


6. (C) Kocharian complained bitterly about the role of the
National Democratic Institute (NDI) in Armenia and told
Ambassadors that he had "written letters" to the USG
outlining his criticisms. He said that in addition to
training its own local election observers, NDI was sending
them abroad, including to Ukraine, for training as well. He
said that NDI continued its activity to form an opposition
electoral bloc. The Polish Ambassador, who has been in
Armenia for nearly three years, said that he had not seen
Kocharian demonstrate this level of anti-Americanism in the
past.

Comment
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7. (C) Kocharian's expression of pessimism on N-K mirrors
the message he sent to NATO Special Rep Bob Simmons on
October 12. We have no way of telling whether it is genuine
or a negotiating tactic, but all those present at the meeting
took it at face value. While the complaint about NDI is not
news, Kocharian's decision to speak so openly about it
outside of U.S. - Armenia channels is unfortunate. Kocharian
was evidently still put out by Amb. Finley's public
expression of disappointment at not being received by the
president during her visit. Nonetheless, Kocharian made a
commitment to inviting both long-term and short-term
observers in advance of Armenia's parliamentary election.
GODFREY