CAMEROON: A TALE OF TWO PRESIDENCIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L YAOUNDE 000816

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/C AND INR/AA
PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS
KINSHASA ALSO FOR BRAZZAVILLE
DAKAR FOR B OSBORNE
EUCOM FOR J5-A AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV ECON PHUM PINR CM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: A TALE OF TWO PRESIDENCIES

REF: A. YAOUNDE 556


B. YAOUNDE 191

C. YAOUNDE 404

D. YAOUNDE 440

Classified By: Ambassador Niels Marquardt, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) In its 46 years of independence, Cameroon has only
known two presidents, Ahmadou Ahidjo (1960-1982) and Paul
Biya (1982-present). Ahidjo was a charismatic and decisive
man who ruled a one-party state where citizens had no voice
in their leadership. Under Ahidjo, Cameroon's economy fared
well; the country enjoyed some of the strongest economic and
social indicators in Africa. Since then, Biya has
transformed Cameroon into a multi-party democracy with
a growing focus on human rights and civil liberties. His
economic legacy, however, has been marred by massive
indebtedness, corruption, a ten year economic downturn and
falling social indicators. Since his re-election in 2004,
Biya seems to be thinking about his legacy and has engaged
his government in a very serious approach to economic reform
and restructuring, which is beginning to bear fruit. The
outstanding question is whether Biya is capable of
engineering a turn-around of his negative legacy of
corruption, stagnation and neglect in the five years
remaining in his presidency. End Summary.

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Biya's Dilemma
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2. (U) In the 46 years since independence, Cameroon has only
known two presidents, Ahmadou Ahidjo (1960-1982) and Paul
Biya (1982-present). In November 2005, President Biya
surpassed Ahidjo in years in power; he faces the
constitutional end to his mandate in 2011, when he will be

78. This anniversary of sorts has led many in Cameroon to
compare the two regimes. Ahidjo, of course, gets the benefit
of time and some nostalgia in this examination as many look
back on his presidency through rose-colored glasses as a time
of growth, development and no crime or corruption. Biya's
tenure has seen a currency devaluation, economic collapse,
enormous corruption, and difficult social challenges such as
AIDS -- but he also has brought a sort of democracy and
undeniably increased civic freedoms to Cameroon. On balance,
each
regime has its strong and weak points, and both combined
reflect the path of many African nations from initial growth
after independence, through subsequent stalling and financial
crisis, to limited economic growth with increasing
democracy and reform in recent years.

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The Men and their Politics
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3. (U) Ahmadou Ahidjo was a Muslim from the North Province of
Cameroon. He put in place the regional and ethnic
balance structure which still dominates Cameroonian politics
today. This structure includes carefully calculated awarding
and balancing of ministerial positions and other high-level
appointments, with some key positions "reserved" for natives
of particular provinces. Remembered as a charismatic and
decisive man, Ahidjo traveled throughout
the country and met with citizens regularly. He centered
power in his office and person, making all major decisions
quickly based on his own knowledge of the issue. He used
force to repress rebellions in the southern and Anglophone
provinces before and after independence. Under his rule,
Cameroon's human rights record was dismal. This was a
one-party state where citizens had no voice in their
leadership. On the other hand, he was known and respected
for
tolerating no corruption within his government.


4. (U) Paul Biya took over when Ahidjo handed power to him by
decree in 1982 (Biya had been Ahidjo's PM for seven years).
This was Ahidjo's attempt to appease increased donor pressure
for a move toward democracy, with a nominal change in
regime, while continuing to rule through Biya. Biya turned
out to have plans of his own and quickly
took his own path. Many say that in response Ahidjo was
behind the failed coup in 1984. Ahidjo denied such claims
during a radio interview a day after the coup, but added that
"if his partisans were behind it, it would be successful."
Ahidjo left for a self-imposed exile in Senegal, where he
died a few years later. His body has never been returned to
Cameroon for burial, a source of political tension here and a
sign of just polarized the two presidents eventually became.


5. (U) Biya is a Christian from the South Province. He is
more reclusive, rarely traveling either within Cameroon or
the African region. Aside from R&R trips to Switzerland,
France, and sometimes Germany, he also rarely goes abroad,
and is almost never seen in public. He has continued the
political traditions of ethnic and regional balance in most
government positions and of concentrating power in his own
hands. His decision-making style, however, is very slow and
deliberative, making decisions only after extensive personal
consideration and input from multiple trusted advisors over
longer periods of time than most observers would expect.
(For example, we have been awaiting a government reshuffle
here for months.) Therefore his government's decision-making
process is cumbersome and often ineffective. The first
decade of Biya's rule perpetuated Cameroon's one-party rule
and poor human rights record, particularly as coup rumors
swirled in the late 80s. Since 1992, however, Biya has stood
for election three times, with each election being
progressively more free and fair, although still flawed.
Since 1992 Cameroon has also had opposition parties - several
hundred, in fact -- and an increasingly free press.
Moreover, Cameroon's previously poor human rights record has
shown steady improvement over the last six years.


6. (SBU) Another interesting difference between the two men
is that during Biya's regime the military leadership has
taken on a distinct tribal slant. While there is some amount
of ethnic balance in the Armed Forces at large, the
entire presidential guard and most of the senior generals are
Beti, members of Biya's own ethnic group. Many believe that
part of Biya's reaction to the 1984 coup attempt has been to
only advance Betis -- the only ones he really trusts -- into
positions of senior military leadership. Others feel that it
reflects efforts by members of the President's region to hold
on to power by creating a military which will prohibit any
non-southerner from ascending to the presidency.


7. (U) In 1996 a new constitution enshrined some of Biya's
democratic advancements and laid out a road map for the
devolution of power out from the capital to the provinces.
As noted in Ref B, however, this constitution is only half
implemented, with many issues still being governed by the
1972 Constitution. Biya's 2004 election was his second, and
last, under the 1996 Constitution. In 2011 Cameroonians
should, for the first time, elect a completely new president.

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The Economic Legacies
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8. (U) Under Ahidjo, Cameroon had some of the strongest
economic and social indicators for Africa. GDP growth rates,
life expectancy and civil service wages were all high and
unemployment was low. Cameroon depended on a diverse
agricultural sector for its income and benefited greatly from
the spike in world commodity prices in the late seventies.
Ahidjo used the revenue in a concerted program of five-year
infrastructure development plans. Commodities were regulated
and sold under national parastatals in order to ensure
maximum revenue to both the state and the producers
(peasants). Most of modern Cameroon was built and paved
under Ahidjo's reign. While Cameroon also developed a
service and industrial sector, the firms were all
parastatals, leaving little room for the development of a
private sector. Ahidjo's regime also produced one of
Cameroon's most valuable commodities, its well educated work
force. Benefitting from the colonial legacy of education
structures and traditions, Cameroon boasted a large number of
literate and well educated workers.


9. (U) Biya's economic legacy is much more mixed. After
Cameroon discovered oil in 1977, oil revenue was sufficient
for Cameroon to feel it could borrow against it to cover the
loss of income from the collapse of agricultural commodity
prices. Trying to support the large weight of the
heavily-subsidized parastatal structure built up by Ahidjo,
Cameroon began to incur a huge debt load. This was
aggravated by the deteriorating effects of the overvalued CFA
(fixed to the French franc at the same rate since 1958). The
late 1980s were a time of severe economic
contraction from which Cameroon is only now beginning to
emerge.


10. (U) In 1988 Cameroon began its first efforts to address
its financial crisis by submitting to its first IMF
program. The 50 percent devaluation of the CFA helped
stimulate some growth in the economy, but the underlying
structural problems caused by the bloated civil service, the
number of parastatals and the large debt load required
serious belt tightening. In response to the IMF's initial
requirements that the overall civil service wage bill be
cut in half, the Biya government kept all the positions, but
cut salaries in half. Suddenly, in the period of two
years a large segment of Cameroon's work force lost over 75
percent of its purchasing power. Many point to this event
as the start of Cameroon's current problems with pervasive
corruption, as many Cameroonians, out of economic need,
exploit the rent-seeking opportunities their positions afford
(Ref C). The job uncertainty that has resulted from
the multiple IMF programs (which have strongly pushed for the
privatization or liquidation of the majority of the
inefficiently run parastatals) has also created deep
uncertainty and instability on the job front.


11. (U) After many false starts and detours, Cameroon finally
achieved HIPC completion point on April 28. This will lead
to the forgiveness of almost 2/3 of its foreign debt. Biya's
current plans are to use the benefits of this
debt forgiveness, combined with a strong anti-corruption
campaign, to bring about positive economic change. The
objectives are to invest heavily in health and education to
help the country address the problems posed by AIDS and
malaria and to bring education levels and standards back up
to the Ahidjo era levels. Infrastructure, especially in
Douala and certain intercity roads, needs to be upgraded as
well.

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Biya -- concerned about his legacy?
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12. (C) In a 1991 interview on French television, Biya said
that he would love to be remembered as the "man who brought
democracy to Cameroon." But since his re-election in 2004,
Biya seems to be re-thinking his legacy and its
scope. While politically he leaves a fairly positive record,
economically, Cameroon presents at best a more mixed
picture and is certainly not the same country Biya inherited.
Indeed, Biya recently asked the Ambassador rhetorically,
"What pride would I feel in leaving Cameroon as it is today?"
Since 2004 Biya has engaged his government in a very serious
approach to economic reform and restructuring, which led to
HIPC completion point. It is not yet certain, however,
whether these changes will be deep enough to achieve clear
economic advancements by the 2011 presidential election.
Despite his strides to combat corruption, which will improve
the economy and other social
indicators, if overall economic results do not meet Biya's
objectives, some wonder whether Biya will feel his
political legacy is sufficient to leave office at the end of
his constitutional mandate, or if he will try to stay on for
an additional (currently unconstitutional) term to leave a
strong double legacy.

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Comment
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13. (C) Complicating Biya's own calculations about his legacy
is the question about who will be the presidential
candidates. Particularly with Cameroon's opposition in
disarray (Ref A),the President's CPDM party is the only one
likely to produce a viable candidate. There is currently
much quiet jockeying for power within the CPDM, mostly (but
not only) by Southerners trying to ensure that the presidency
remains in their hands. (Cameroon's albeit limited tradition
suggests that it should go back to the north - as any
Northerner will tell you.) But if the fractures become
serious, Biya might conclude that the country is unready for
a transition, and seek to change the constitution to permit
yet another term.


14. (C) However, our feeling today is that any predictions
about Biya trying to stay on for an additional term are off
the mark. Indeed, with his young wife and family, his
"retirement" house under construction next door to the
embassy, and his sense of urgency about ongoing reforms, he
seems to us a person who already has decided to live out his
final days outside of public office. Legacy aspirations
aside, his age and his health (Ref D) will be important
factors that could even prevent him from completing his
current constitutional mandate, let alone seeking another
one. Our sense is that Biya is focused on his legacy and is
working to ensure that he will have accomplished his stated
goals by 2011. The measures taken to reach the HIPC
completion point, to combat corruption, and to lead Cameroon
toward Millennium Challenge eligibility increasingly
represent fundamental changes to Cameroon's political,
economic and social infrastructure. All of this augers well
for Cameroonians having the opportunity to elect a new leader
in 2011. End Comment.
MARQUARDT