ELECTION OF NEW GREEN PARTY CO-LEADER UNLIKELY TO HERALD

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR D (FRITZ),EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD LIZ PHU
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: ELECTION OF NEW GREEN PARTY CO-LEADER UNLIKELY TO HERALD
SEA CHANGE IN POLICIES



1. (SBU) Summary: Nearly eight months after the death of co-leader
Rod Donald, the Green Party has chosen Russel Norman as his
replacement. Elected by delegates at the party's annual conference,
Norman will share the leadership with Jeannette Fitzsimons, who was
re-elected female co-leader for the 12th time. Norman's election is
a victory for traditional Green Party principles. Although the
conference signaled that the Greens are open to working with
National in the future, most analysts agree this was likely to
strengthen the Party's negotiating leverage with Labour and not a
signal of a significant change in policies.

The background of the new co-leader
--------------


2. (SBU) Norman, 39, was born in Brisbane, Australia. He immigrated
to New Zealand in 1997 to study the Alliance Party, a now disbanded
political coalition of leftist and Green parties. He wrote his
political science PhD thesis on the Alliance, and was active within
the party editing its party newsletter. He soon became actively
involved in the Auckland branch of the Green Party working as an
assistant to Green MPs Sue Kedgley, Nandor Tanczos, and Keith Locke.
Norman was a researcher for the party from 2002 to 2004 and was the
national campaign manager prior to the 2005 election and the
national Party Development Co-coordinator afterwards.

New co-leader will not sit in Parliament
--------------


3. (SBU) Norman is not a current MP and therefore will take up the
co-leadership from a position outside Parliament. Co-leader
Fitzsimons is a current MP and has a seat in Parliament. The Green
Party charter stipulates that the party leadership must be shared by
a male and a female. Norman has stated that he will concentrate on
party building and community work. He has announced his intention
to stand for Parliament on the party list at the next election.


4. (SBU) Although he will not serve in Parliament, Norman is no
stranger to parliamentary politics. During the last parliamentary
term, he surreptitiously drafted parliamentary questions for Green
MPs and attended meetings with them. He also provided advice on
parliamentary strategy.

Greens look to fix its electoral prospects
--------------


5. (SBU) While no polling on the impact of Norman's election is
currently available, the Greens have been under-performing in the
polls of late. The Greens' political influence has also waned since
it had its parliamentary representation slashed from nine MPs to six
MPs at the last election and is no longer a coalition partner with
the Government. Norman has stated that he hopes his election will
boost Green Party support in suburbs, provincial areas and towns
around New Zealand, in addition to attracting a greater share of the
youth vote.

But not its policy positions
--------------


6. (SBU) The election of Norman is unlikely to greatly alter the
party's politics or approach to politics. By all accounts, the new
co-leader is a traditional Green. Norman has identified the
established issues of climate change, public transport, declining
oil resources, healthy food, healthy rivers and low wages as ones he
intends to pursue. His election is a victory for the traditional
left-leaning wing of the party, who fought off a co-leadership
challenge by Tanczos. Tanczos wanted to move the Green Party to a
position where it could bridge the Left-Right political divide.


7. (SBU) Norman has maintained that under his co-leadership the
party will continue to take an independent and principled position,
working with all political parties issue by issue. He and others at
the conference signaled that the Greens could even relax their
long-held aversion to working with the right-of-center National
Party if the Nats change their climate change policy. However,
given the selection of the traditionally Green Norman as leader,
most analysts see this move as a tactic of political leveraging
rather than a moderation of the Party's beliefs. After the last
election, Labour was forced to reach out to United Future and NZ
First in order to gain a working governing arrangement, and both
parties refused to agree to a deal unless the Greens were left out
of the picture. By making it clear it would not ally with National

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under any circumstances, the Greens were left vulnerable.
Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether the National Party would
even be interested in working with the Greens. It could be a
valuable way for the Nats to reach a less mainstream audience.
However, they may decide that the possible cost in core support
could be too heavy a price to pay.

McCormick