GNZ REACTION TO SOLOMONS UNREST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000298

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR D (FRITZ),EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU
PACOM FOR JO1E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BP NZ
SUBJECT: GNZ REACTION TO SOLOMONS UNREST

REF: A. WELLINGTON IIR 6869 0061 (NOTAL)

B. PORT MORESBY 170

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires David Burnett,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: New Zealand officials believe the situation
in Honiara has calmed down, especially given the presence of
stepped up RAMSI and local police security presence. But GNZ
worries about future flashpoints, such as the upcoming
inauguration of PM Rini. They also fear a possible spillover
affect to the ethnic Chinese communities in other Pacific
Island nations. One possible upside to the Solomons
situation, GNZ believes, is that it may impel China and
Taiwan to look more seriously at the negative effect of their
actions in the region. New Zealand officials continue to
look seriously at a long-term approach to the China/Taiwan
factor, and would like to remain in contact with us as they
do.
End Summary.


2. (C) New Zealand today began to send 30 police and 25
soldiers to the Solomons Islands, to help RAMSI and local
police efforts to stabilize the situation there. Prime
Minister Clark noted to the NZ media that the additional
forces, sent to assist New Zealand's current contingent of 82
police and soldiers will send " a very clear signal" to
rioters. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) has
also advised Kiwis to avoid all non-essential travel to the
Solomons. The Government has so far stopped short of urging
the 200 New Zealanders in the Solomons to leave, but has said
that military flights would be available to anyone wishing to
do so. All Kiwis in the Solomons are believed to be safe,
although three NZ Policemen (and 17 Australian officers) were
injured quelling the riots.


3. (C) Heather Riddell, Director of MFAT's Pacific Division,
said the problems stemmed from the fact that the Solomons'
Prime Minister is elected by successful MPs, "so democracy
ceases to work well." In other words, votes are bought. As
does Ref B, GNZ believes that Charles Dausabea's backers had
a lot to do with rousing the crowds, as he was seen lurking
around some of the outbreaks. His party's MPs were also able
to leave Parliament even as PM-elect Rini and most MPs were
held there. Riddell says that rioters burned down the
Honiara supermarket (Wings) belonging to Rini financial
backer Tommy Chan. Most of Chinatown and many other ethnic
Chinese businesses are in ashes as well.


4. (C) With the arrival of additional Australian military
and police adding to a visible security presence, things are
calmer now, says Riddell. But Rini is due to be sworn in as
early as today, so GNZ is monitoring the situation closely.
Riddell, whose most recent foreign posting was Honiara, says
that she fears the situation could flare up again. She was
personally shocked that the resistance to Rini was so
determined, as normally protesters "get excited and then go
home." This unrest has lasted for days.


5. (C) Riddell says it is not clear how long the
reinforcements would have to remain in Honiara. The next
step will be to get through the inauguration and get the
government rolling again. Once things are stable, RAMSI and
the local police will investigate how the trouble started.
Over the shorter term, GNZ is trying to assess the damage to
the food supply in the Solomons, given that so many stores
were destroyed. Most people have gardens, but there may be
shortages of rice and other staples. GNZ will determine
whether any assistance may be needed.


6. (C) Over the longer term, this episode has obviously
created a real setback for the credibility of public
security, and the balance between security needs and nation
building will have to be reassessed, says Riddell. She
predicted another period of instability and uncertainty could
arise when Rini selects his Cabinet, and indicated that some
victorious MPs are unsavory characters.


7. (C) GNZ has not yet done a detailed assessment of the

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anti-Chinese sentiment unleashed in the riots, but fears that
the problems could spread to other ethnic Chinese in the
region. Riddell said that GNZ officials would have raised
general concern over China's actions in the Pacific Islands
during Premier Wen's recent visit to Wellington, but not any
specific examples. GNZ is, however, continuing to work on a
strategy for addressing the role of China and Taiwan in the
region. Riddell says GNZ continues to see the need for a
constructive dialogue with Beijing and Taiwan, and the
problems caused for the Chinese community in the Solomons may
give a way in.


8. (C) During A/S Hill's March visit, NZ officials said that
FM Peters would like the Pacific Islands to engage China and
Taiwan as a group. But Riddell said that if the recent
PRC-hosted forum in Fiji was any example, this approach was
unlikely to be successful. She described the gathering
(close hold) as "a lecture accompanied by laptops and some
financial sweeteners." What will be effective, she said, is
if the Pacific Island Governments become disquieted enough to
press the issue. But as China now provides at least half of
the assistance to the Islands, the governments are in a
difficult position.


9. (C) Riddell nevertheless believes that a number of
issues, including obviously the Solomons but also the problem
of illegal logging in Papua New Guinea, are pushing the
problem of China/Taiwan to a head. Devising an effective
strategy in response remains a critical priority for GNZ, and
Riddell says MFAT would like to consult closely with post as
they move ahead.

Burnett