POLAND'S PROPOSED EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY TREATY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000380

SIPDIS

STATE FOR P, EUR, E, EUR/NCE, EUR/ERA, EUR/RPM, EB/ESC
EUR FOR A/S DFRIED, DAS MPEKALA, DAS MBRYZA
EUR/NCE FOR DKOSTELANCIK AND MSESSUMS, EB/ESC FOR SGALLOGLY
AND RGARVERICK
DOE FOR LEKIMOFF
USDOC FOR 4232/ITA/MAC/EUR/JBURGESS, MWILSON, JKIMBALL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2016
TAGS: ENRG EPET PREL PL
SUBJECT: POLAND'S PROPOSED EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY TREATY

REF: WARSAW 312

Classified By: Economic Counselor Richard Rorvig, reasons 1.4(B)
and (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) Poland continues to consult with EU partners on its
proposed European Energy Security Treaty. Deputy Minister of
Economy Naimski requests a meeting with Under Secretary for
Political Affairs Nicholas Burns March 20 or 21 to discuss
mechanisms in the NATO Treaty that can be transferred to the
proposed Energy Security Treaty. He would also like to meet
with Secretary of Energy Bodman to discuss the proposed
treaty. End Summary.

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Poles Optimistic about Proposed Treaty
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2. (C) The Polish Ministry of Economy continues to work on
Warsaw's proposed European Energy Security Treaty. Pawel
Konzal, Advisor to the Minster of Economy, said that initial
reactions from other European leaders have been positive.
According to Konzal, Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz discussed
the proposed treaty with UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and
French PM de Villepin and received initially positive
responses from both. Konzal reported that the UK has been
very helpful from the beginning and that the British
representative to the EU Energy Working Group has been
meeting with him in Brussels to develop a set of core
principles for energy security. They hope to finish
developing the set of common principles the week of March 6,
after the EU energy green paper is completed.


3. (C) Konzal stated that Deputy Minister of Economy Piotr
Naimski would like to visit the U.S. in late March. In
Washington, Naimski would like to meet with Under Secretary
of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns to discuss
mechanisms and articles in the NATO Treaty that could be
transferred to the proposed energy security treaty. In
addition, Naimski would like to meet with Secretary of Energy
Bodman and representatives of the NSC, the Department of
Commerce and the Trade Development Agency. Naimski would
also appreciate a briefing from the Central Intelligence
Agency on the current energy security situation in the
region. Konzal believes that Naimski will have more detailed
information on the proposed energy treaty available for his
meetings, and will also be very interested in the U.S.
reaction.

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Not all EU observers are so Optimistic
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4. (C) The Ministry of Economy is planning a briefing for
EU embassies on the proposed treaty on March 9 in preparation
for the March 14 EU Energy Ministers meeting. Informal
comments some of our EU colleagues in Warsaw indicate that
there is considerable skepticism that the treaty fill find
enough support. German Warsaw Embassy Economic Counselor
Volker Berresheim (protect) told us that, while Germany still
has expressed no official reaction to the proposal, it is not
likely to be enthusiastic. The German Embassy in Warsaw
thinks that the treaty is more a result of Polish "angst"
than a practical response to a real problem. The Germans are
frustrated that the GOP does not yet seem to understand that
the EU would never allow an EU economy to collapse from
outside pressure. Poland's energy usage is minuscule when
compared to the entire EU. Poland's needs, in a crisis,
could be met by relatively small diversions from other
members. Furthermore, the Germans believe that Poland has
considerable gas storage capacity in Western Poland, which it
has not used because it has not wanted to spend the money to
fill the reserve. The Germans are listening politely but are
yet to be convinced of the need for a treaty. They believe
that the French are similarly skeptical. In this regard,
Polish MFA America's desk deputy director Jaroszynski told
the DCM that he understands the French have serious problems
with the proposal for two reasons: 1) it proposes a formal
treaty rather than a simple government to government
agreement, and 2) it uses a NATO framework rather than an EU
framework. Separately, the UK DCM (protect) has also
told us of HMG doubts that the proposed treaty could be
negotiated in a timely manner - given the differences of
opinion among EU Member States - or that it would be worth
the effort.

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Comment
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5. (C) The new Polish government is expending considerable
political capital in promoting its proposed energy treaty and
views successful negotiation of the treaty as a major foreign
policy goal. If the USG (and other key allies) decide that a
formal treaty poses problems, it will be important to engage
the Poles constructively as we explore our options for
increasing energy security. Naimski's visit will be an
opportunity to lay out alternative practical ways ahead. The
challenge for the USG is to channel Poland's desire into
effective and realistic means of achieving energy security,
while making clear that this will require investments in
storage of gas reserves and development of alternative
sources through LNG terminals or additional pipelines.
HILLAS