Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06WARSAW2115
2006-09-29 15:30:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Warsaw
Cable title:  

TURBULENT POLITICAL SCENE CONTINUES AS PM

Tags:  PGOV PREL ECON PL 
pdf how-to read a cable
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Anne W McNeill 10/10/2006 11:32:28 AM From DB/Inbox: Anne W McNeill

Cable 
Text: 
 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 02115

SIPDIS
CXWARSAW:
 ACTION: POL
 INFO: PASC ORA ODC AMB ECON DCM DAO AGRI MGT KRA CONS
 RSO FCS

DISSEMINATION: POLO
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: POL:MCURTIN
DRAFTED: POL:DHLVANCLEVE
CLEARED: NONE

VZCZCWRI898
OO RUEHC RUEHZL RUEHKW
DE RUEHWR #2115/01 2721530
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 291530Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2109
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHKW/AMCONSUL KRAKOW PRIORITY 1320
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002115 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PL
SUBJECT: TURBULENT POLITICAL SCENE CONTINUES AS PM
KACZYNSKI BLASTS OPPONENTS

REF: WARSAW 2063

Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002115

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PL
SUBJECT: TURBULENT POLITICAL SCENE CONTINUES AS PM
KACZYNSKI BLASTS OPPONENTS

REF: WARSAW 2063

Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Poland's seemingly endless political
turbulence continues to follow twists and turns that lead to
constant speculation and disagreement about whether there
will be early elections, whether Law and Justice (PiS) can
form a new majority, and whether the opposition can cobble
together enough votes to bring down the government--a
difficult task under Poland's constitution. The possibility,
reported reftel, that PiS would seek early elections after
ejecting the populist Self Defense (SO) party from the
coalition was dashed when a scandal erupted over televised
secretly taped conversations in which PiS insiders were

SIPDIS
caught wooing SO deputy Renata Beger with promises of senior
government positions and hints of financial assistance if she
were to desert SO leader Andrzej Lepper. Opposition parties
cried foul, drawing comparisons to earlier political scandals
and questioning PiS's commitment to clean up corruption.
Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski's poorly received September
27 address, in which he cried opposition provocation,
furthered weakened PiS's position, making it almost certain
PiS will not seek early elections. This latest domestic
political crisis is gripping and theatrical, but, we believe,
will not directly impact GOP thinking on key foreign policy
issues, including Polish engagement in Afghanistan, Iraq or
Lebanon (reported septel),even if the constant roiling does
not help Poland's image. End Summary.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski Out on a Limb
--------------


2. (C) After provoking the latest domestic political crisis
by firing his Minister of Agriculture, SO leader and junior
coalition partner, Andrzej Lepper, PM Jaroslaw Kaczynski
found himself buffeted by an unfolding political crisis
involving charges of corruption and influence peddling by his
party. Kaczynski's plan for building a new majority
government hinged heavily on enticing leading SO members to
desert. Kaczynski insider Adam Lipinski was taped secretly
by SO deputy Renata Beger, in conversations in which the PiS

official held out the promise of a senior government position
and questionable loans if Beger jumped parties. Beger
released the tapes on September 27, leading the opposition to
cry foul and call for the government's resignation. Beger
herself has considerable political baggage, with charges
pending that she secured her place on the 2001 election lists
with forged signatures. In the released tapes, Lipinski also
floats the idea that the GOP might try to resolve her
long-standing legal troubles, and could use parliamentary
funds to provide a bridge loan to Beger and other SO deputies
who abandoned Lepper for PiS, to enable them to reimburse the
campaign funds SO spent on their elections.


3. (C) Revelations that PiS, elected on an agenda of
expunging corruption from Polish politics, was engaged in its
very own dubious political dealings left Kaczynski
scrambling. In a poorly received televised speech September
27, Kaczynski lashed out at the opposition for "political
provocation," labeling "the left, post-communists and
liberals" as scoundrels bent on destroying PiS's efforts to
build the "Fourth Republic." Kaczynski sought to reassure
Poles that the government was "functioning normally," and
that Poland was enjoying "its best year since 1900." He
hinted at nefarious conspiracy by promising that a
forthcoming report on the overhaul of the military
intelligence service (WSI) would clarify the crisis, hinting
that SO in cahoots with hard-line WSI insiders had provoked
the trouble. He also claimed that changing the head of the
National Bank of Poland (whose term expires next month, in
November) would also fix the current political atmosphere.
But Kaczynski's speech was a flop. Negative opinion polls
after the speech mean it is almost certain PiS will not call
for early elections. And, with SO deputies largely rallying
to Lepper, PiS efforts to form a new governing coalition with
the Polish Peasant Party (PSL) foundered, making a
newly-cobbled PiS-led majority harder to envision.


4. (C) The opposition, meanwhile, is having a field day,
comparing "Begergate" to earlier political crises involving
influence peddling that bogged down the previous Democratic
Left Alliance (SLD) government. Both Civic Platform (PO) and
the SLD have submitted motions for dissolving Parliament, and
have called for an extraordinary session of the Sejm to vote
on the proposals. Sejm Marshall Marek Jurek, after briefly
suggesting that an early session was possible, said any such
motions would be considered when Parliament holds its next
session on October 10. Presuming that SO votes with the
opposition, the dissolution motions will carry a majority but
not the required two-thirds to bring down the government, and
so would fail.

Possible Vote of Confidence
--------------


5. (C) PiS thus contemplates riding out this crisis,
running a minority government with the League of Polish
Families (LPR),and possibly calling early elections in
spring 2007 if the electoral tides are more favorable. LPR,
polling well below the parliamentary threshold of five
percent, has no interest in rocking the boat. If the
dissolution measures pass, but fall short of the required
two-thirds majority (as expected),PO may present a motion of
no confidence in the government. That motion, if passed by
simple majority, opens the door to possible new political
constellations. The possible king maker, remarkably, is
PSL's Waldemar Pawlak, whose small group of 25 deputies could
make the difference in forming a new majority government, be
it led by PiS or PO. Pawlak's price would be steep,
including the premiership itself, according to press
speculation. PO Deputy Pawel Spiewak told poloff on
September 27 that "it was time" for PO's leadership to
provide a "sensible alternative," namely some kind of grand
coalition with PO, PSL and SO or SLD, and thus move past the
circus atmosphere that describes the current domestic
political atmosphere. Thus far, however, we have not seen
evidence that the PO leadership is ready for such a move.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Comment: After Deputy PM and Minister of Finance
Zita Gilowska was whisked out of office in June following
allegations of her collaboration with the Communist-era
security services, Poles across the political spectrum
credited PiS for not tolerating even the whiff of political
impropriety. The image of PiS engaged in "business as usual"
could hurt with some of its core constituents. But the
fractiousness of the opposition means they are also not in a
position to capitalize seriously on the latest uproar, and so
this unsettled situation could continue. Through it all,
however, we have seen no hint, as we will report septel, that
the Kaczynski's domestic tempest will influence Polish
external policies, notably military deployments in
Afghanistan, Iraq or Lebanon. We expect this roiling to
continue, and expect it to be distracting, but expect also
the President and Prime Minister, and leaders of the larger
opposition group (PO) to remain firm on significant
commitments. End Summary.
ASHE