A/S FRIED'S MEETING WITH POLISH PM JAROSLAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WARSAW 002113

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON OVIP
SUBJECT: A/S FRIED'S MEETING WITH POLISH PM JAROSLAW
KACZYNSKI

Classified By: Mary T. Curtin, Political Counselor, for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Assistant Secretary Dan Fried met with
Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski on September 8, 2006
and discussed Ukraine, Belarus, and energy security, all
topics that we expect the PM to raise when he travels to
Washington next week. Fried also discussed the chilly state
of relations between Warsaw and Berlin, urging the Polish
premier to establish a firmer path for cooperation between
Poland and Germany. A/S Fried also praised Poland's
participation in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon. He urged PM
Kaczynski to have the GOP finalize its approval of an
anticipated deal with computer manufacturer, Dell Computers,
which is expected to bring thousands of jobs to Poland's
second largest city, Lodz. End summary.


2. (U) Participants: U.S.: Assistant Secretary Dan Fried;
Ambassador Victor Ashe; Political Counselor Mary Curtin;
Political Internal Section Chief David Van Cleve. Poland:
PM Jaroslaw Kaczynski; MFA U/S Witold Waszczykowski; Leszek
Jesien, Secretary of State, Office of Prime Minister (Foreign
policy advisor); Krzysztof Miszczak, Acting Director of the
Foreign Policy Department in the Prime Minister,s
Chancellery.


3. (C) In a meeting scheduled for a half hour, but lasting
more than an hour, the PM welcomed A/S Fried and joked that
while it was always better to govern from the back seat, he
had realized that being the head of a significant Polish
political party was not enough, and that he had to step up to
the premiership. He offered that Poland had traveled a long
way in the years he had known A/S Fried, and he was glad to
know he had lived a good portion of his life in good times.

UKRAINE


4. (C) PM Kaczynski said he had met with Ukrainian PM
Yanukovich twice during Yanukovich,s September 6 visit to
Krynice, and described Ukraine as a difficult partner.
Kaczynski described the political situation in Kiev as
strange, but said PM Yanukovich was the critical figure to
work with. Kaczynski said he urged Yanukovich to send a
letter to NATO asking for a Military Action Plan (MAP) for
Ukraine. Kaczynski said that, even if it cannot happen at
the upcoming Riga summit, it would be good for Yanukovich to
request it. Kaczynski said he understood Yanukovich,s
background and culture and feared a worsening political
climate in Kiev. He said that holding out the prospect of
NATO membership was an important incentive to keep Ukraine
oriented towards the West. "We want them in NATO," he said.


5. (C) Fried described his two-hour meeting with Yanukovich
the previous day in Kiev. He said he shared the PM,s
assessment of the situation in Ukraine, describing PM
Yanukovich as neither a "democrat," nor a "homos Sovieticus,"
but someone the West could work with. Fried offered that he
believed that Yanukovich was committed to a path that would
be good for Ukraine, and that while the door was open for
Ukraine to join NATO at some stage, offering Ukraine a MAP at
the Riga summit was premature. However, if Yanukovich is
impressive at NATO then perhaps a positive statement could be
worked up for Ukraine for the Riga summit.

ENERGY SECURITY


6. (C) Kaczynski raised the issue of the extension of the
Odessa-Brody oil pipeline to Plock, where Poland operates its
largest refining center. Kaczynski said he expected to raise
the issue during his visit to Washington, and viewed the
pipeline as important economically. He will also discuss the
"more strategic issue" of Poland,s efforts to seek gas and
oil from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in
order to provide an alternative to Gazprom. A/S Fried
assured the Prime Minister that we were ready to cooperate on
energy matters, and also viewed diversification of supplies
as an issue of critical strategic importance. He mentioned
that VP Cheney was closely engaged on this subject. He added
that the Russians will not like it, but we must be ready to
work together against Gazprom,s monopoly.

KAZAKH CANDIDACY FOR OSCE CHAIRMANSHIP


7. (C) Kaczynski said that it was also important to the
future of "this part of the world" that the sphere of
democracy be expanded to the countries of Central Asia. A/S
Fried agreed, saying that we want to consult on these issues,
especially with regard to the OSCE. In that regard,
Kaczynski raised the issue of Kazakhstan,s bid for the
chairmanship in office of the OSCE in 2009. Fried agreed
with Kaczynski and related his discussions in Berlin about
Berlin,s support of Kazakh President Azerbayev. Fried
commented that the United States did not disagree in
principle to the Kazakh OSCE bid, but believes that it would
be better to delay Kazakhstan,s candidacy until 2011. He
said further that he had told the Germans that if Berlin had
a strong preference for an earlier candidacy, then Kazakhstan
would have to show it was ready to respect certain democratic
norms. He viewed the problem of democracy in Central Asia as
a serious one, and part of Poland,s broader strategy.
Poland needed to deal with Kazakhstan on energy issues, but a
"trade off" would not be "convincing." He said he wanted to
work in common with the United States, and added that he also
thought German Chancellor Merkel understood the situation,
which, he said had "certain similarities" to the
post-Communist period in Poland. In dealing with such
regimes Poland did not have illusions, but also did not want
to be cynical. Fried urged the Prime Minister to raise the
issue of Kazakhstan with Secretary Rice during their upcoming
meeting.

POLISH-GERMAN RELATIONS


8. (C) A/S Fried raised the importance of strong
Polish-German relations. Echoing statements from his earlier
meetings in the day and the previous evening with President
Kaczynski, Fried said that the road to greater Polish
influence in the EU "runs through Germany." Poland would be
more effective in the EU if it could cooperate with Germany
on Eastern issues. Kazakhstan was a good example. Poland
could work at a strategic level with Berlin during Germany,s
upcoming EU Presidency to shape policy towards Kazakhstan.
Like Poland, Germany was more interested in working on the
EU,s Eastern policy, versus Spain,s and France,s interest
in looking south.


9. (C) A/S Fried said that he did not like the "Schroeder
pipeline," but that it was certainly not the end of
Polish-German relations, and it was important for all of the
EU and countries lying to the East that Poland and Germany
cooperate as fully as possible. Fried added that in Kiev FM
Tarasiuk also raised concerns about the chilly state of
relations between Berlin and Warsaw, saying that Ukraine
needed both Poland and Germany.


10. (C) Kaczynski said that the problems in Polish-German
relations had been exaggerated in the press, and that both
countries wanted correct and good relations. He promised to
discuss the issue with Chancellor Merkel in Helsinki in a
planned EU meeting two days later, and said that both
capitals were working on a new date in October or November
for a Weimar meeting.


11. (C) That said, Kaczynski went on to describe at great
length Polish sensitivity over German MP Erika Steinbach,s
plans to develop a center for Germans expelled from Polish
territory after World War II, and her group,s call for
compensation for lost property. He commented that 34% of
Polish territory was formerly German, and called her plans
"provocative." He said he wanted to frame Polish relations
with Germany towards the future, but possible claims from
German expellees could be destabilizing for the Polish state.
Kaczynski said Steinbach,s plans would require Poland to
"pay a second time for World War II." He reiterated that
Poland hoped for better relations with Germany, but made
clear that he sees the source of the problem in Germany.

BELARUS


12. (C) PM Kaczynski raised the issue of "another problem
neighbor," Belarus. A/S Fried said "we can,t do anything
about Lukashenko," who is a dictator, and described what he
saw as three tiers of actors there: the people around
Lukashenko, other government officials, whom Poles have
suggested we not isolate, and the non-governmental forces,
with whom we need to have open contact as the situation
allows. He said that contacts with the opposition were
good, and we needed to be patient, and asked Poland,s
suggestions on how to proceed.


13. (C) Kaczynski said he agreed with the U.S. outlook, but
added that Poland had a particular problem for ethnic Poles
living there which motivated Warsaw,s differing approach.
In order to ease their situation, "we may have to talk to
Lukashenko." He said he had not yet decided whether to have
a meeting with Lukashenko, and if he did, it would be about
the situation of Poles in the country. A/S Fried responded
that he fully understood that Poles in Belarus were potential
hostages, but our view is that it is hard to have contact
with Lukashenko. We don,t want to do it and don,t want the
EU to do it, but understand Poland has a specific situation.
He said that he hopes Poland will be careful and will be in
contact with us on tactics in dealing with Belarus and the
regime.

GREATER MIDDLE EAST


14. (C) A/S Fried thanked PM Kaczynski,s for Poland,s
active engagement in Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan. He said
that the Polish army was a true partner of the United States
and believed furthermore that Polish potential is serious.
Kaczynski responded with appreciation for the benefits Poland
receives from its partnership, especially the military
training, which is "vital." Kaczynski said Poland would
remain engaged in Lebanon, although it was not clear if the
mission will be successful or if war will break out.
Kaczynski said he had consulted with Italian Premier Prodi
and promised Poland,s ongoing involvement.

DELL


15. (C) At the end of the meeting, A/S Fried mentioned
Poland,s anticipated deal with computer manufacturer Dell
Computers to establish a facility in Lodz, Poland,s second
largest city. The Prime Minister agreed that closing the
deal shortly would be good for Poland, and would be a benefit
to Poland and the United States alike.


16. (U) Assistant Secretary Fried has cleared this cable.
ASHE