RESPONDING TO POLISH NON-PAPER REQUESTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000149

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR A/S
SECDEF FOR ASD/ISP
JOINT STAFF FOR J5
EUCOM FOR ECJ5/ECJ4

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR MCAP MASS PGOV OVIP PL
SUBJECT: RESPONDING TO POLISH NON-PAPER REQUESTING
ADDITIONAL SECURITY ASSISTANCE

Classified By: DCM Ken Hillas for reasons 1.4(B)&(D)


1. (C) Summary. Post received January 24 a non-paper
apparently prepared personally by DefMin Sikorski, revising
the non-paper he had handed to Secretary Rumsfeld December 7
in Washington. Unless otherwise instructed Embassy intends
to use talking points at para. 7 in responding to GOP
officials. See


2. (C) On January 24Polish MFA Americas Director Henryk
Szlajfer presented to Embassy a non-paper from the Polish MOD
entitled "Further Development of the Polish-American Defense
Cooperation." MFA officials told us informally that the
non-paper had been prepared personally by DefMin Radoslaw
Sikorski. According to MOD U/S Stanislaw Koziej, this
non-paper replaces the earlier version that Sikorski
presented to Secretary Rumsfeld during their bilateral
meeting at the Pentagon on December 7.


3. (C) According to MOD officials, the new non-paper is
based on the principal directions established by the ongoing
Strategic Defense Review (SDR) and the modernization
priorities it lays out will be reflected in the forthcoming
"2007-2012 Program for the Development of the Polish Armed
Forces." Considerably reduced in scope from the December 7
version, the non-paper focuses on four key capabilities that
the Polish Armed Forces seek to acquire as part of their
transformation process: six Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)
systems, specifically SHADOW 200 reconnaissance systems, five
Mobile Command and Control Centers (MC2C) for Special
Operations Forces (SOF),260 additional High Mobility
Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs) for the
expeditionary-oriented 16th Airborne Battalion, and 300 sets
of the Land Warrior System individual soldier equipment for
expeditionary units.


4. (C) During dinner on January 25 with EUR A/S Fried and
ASD/ISP Flory, Sikorski made clear his expectation that
increased levels of U.S. Security Assistance funding (i.e.,
Foreign Military Financing - FMF) would be needed for these
acquisitions. The non-paper,s unsubstantiated and likely
low-sided estimates fix the total cost of these acquisitions
at USD 301 million. According to the non-paper, funds from
Poland's current (FY05/06) FMF account have been committed to
partially fill two of the four acquisition priorities (USD 50
million to purchase two UAV systems and USD 11.7 million
toward the purchase of 27 HMMWVs),leaving an unfunded
balance of approximately USD 240 million. Pending
Congressional approval, Poland's FMF level is projected at
USD 30 million in FY07 and is expected to remain at or below
that level in the out-years.


5. (C) In preparation for Polish President Lech Kaczynski,s
visit to the U.S. for a February 9 meeting with President
Bush, Sikorski continues to press for a U.S. commitment to
fund the priority acquisitions listed in the new non-paper.
Essentially, he is seeking a U.S. "deliverable" for
President Kaczynski,s visit of at least USD 240 million
(based on the low-end Polish cost estimates in the
non-paper). While the non-paper does not specify timelines
for acquiring these capabilities, Sikorski likely expects it
would occur within the next five years.


6. (C) Embassy Warsaw expects that Polish officials will
look for a USG response in the coming days. In order to
allow time for a constructive dialogue and to pre-empt the
emergence of unrealistic expectations for the Kaczynski
visit, we will need to make clear the limits of U.S. FMF
funding. We also see the need for political discussions of
GOP plans to expend national funds on these acquisitions, but
those discussions will have to take place after President
Kaczynski's visit, as we will need to verify through USG
sources the non-paper's purported costs. Unless otherwise
instructed, U.S. Embassy proposes to use the Talking Points
at para 7 in addressing this issue.


7. (C) BEGIN TEXT:

- We appreciate the efforts of the Government of Poland,
particularly the Ministry of National Defense, to develop a
framework for our bilateral defense cooperation that promotes
transformation and development within the Polish Armed
Forces. The non-paper provided during the Strategic Dialogue
is a useful indication of the acquisition priorities of the
Polish Armed Forces and of the capabilities required to
enhance their inter-operability within NATO.

- We understand that the priorities outlined in the
non-paper will be consistent with the findings and
recommendations of your Strategic Defense Review, as well as
with the broader context of the forthcoming 2007-2012
Development and Modernization Program for the Polish Armed
Forces. We agree that the cooperation objectives and
capabilities requirements presented in the non-paper will
advance the Polish Armed Forces, ability to participate
effectively in future Alliance and coalition operations, a
goal which we share.

- We have been advised informally that our Security
Assistance would have to be increased to fund procurement of
the equipment. Poland is at present the leading recipient of
our Security Assistance in Europe and Eurasia, and we are
maintaining that level of support at a time when other most
European recipients' levels have declined . There is no
reason to expect that Four grant aid will increase in the
coming years.

- We are now in the process of studying the non-paper,
including the estimated costs of this equipment at the
specified quantities. That said, it appears unlikely that
Poland's current or projected FMF funding levels will allow
near-term acquisition of this materiel solely with FMF.

- Acquisition of the equipment listed in the non-paper would
therefore require the use of Polish national funds to
supplement Poland's annual FMF allocations, which will, at
best, remain at the current level.

END TEXT.


8. (C) COMMENT: We recommend that Washington convey the same
message to the Polish Embassy, so as to maximize the
prospects of a constructive discussion around President
Kaczynski's visit.
ASHE