BUDGET IS PASSED; ELECTIONS STILL POSSIBLE

UNCLAS WARSAW 000111

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: BUDGET IS PASSED; ELECTIONS STILL POSSIBLE

REF: WARSAW 76


1. Voting well past midnight on January 25, the Polish
Parliament passed the budget proposed by the ruling Law and
Justice (PiS) party by a vote of 269 to 180. Voting was
protracted owing to 225 proposed amendments, each considered
and voted individually. The budget was passed by a
party-line vote: PiS, together with the smaller
parliamentary parties (Self Defense, SO; the League of Polish
Families, LPR; and the Polish Peasant's Party, PSL),voted in
favor, while the opposition Civic Platform (PO) and Alliance
of the Democratic Left (SLD) voted against. Nearly half of
the amendments were proposed by PO, and most were rejected.
Other amendments, like SO's proposed "farmers' bonus,"
passed.


2. The passage of the budget does not mean that the threat of
early elections has passed. In comments after the votes, PM
Marcinkiewicz and PiS party chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski both
said that PiS would need to "fix the budget" in amendments to
be considered by the Senate on January 30 and 31. After the
Senate has its turn, the bill will return to the Sejm for
reconciliation, past the constitutional deadline for
completing budgetary action, thus providing President Lech
Kaczynski the window to dissolve the Parliament and call for
early elections should he want to (reftel).


3. Separately, PiS announced that Jaroslaw Kaczynski would
hold talks on Friday, January 27 with SO, LPR and PSL on the
proposed "Stabilization Pact" that PiS has proposed to avoid
early elections. With so many moving parts, bets are still
off on whether PiS will opt for a coalition with these
smaller parties or go the electoral route.
ASHE