LITHUANIAN FM ADVOCATES PATIENCE TO GEORGIA, MAKES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000952

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2016
TAGS: PREL LH GG EUN
SUBJECT: LITHUANIAN FM ADVOCATES PATIENCE TO GEORGIA, MAKES
GEORGIA'S CASE TO EU

REF: VILNIUS 938

Classified By: Pol/Econ officer Rebecca Dunham for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)


1. (C) Summary. Lithuania's Foreign Minister Vaitiekunas
visited Georgia October 12 to pitch the Georgians on a
strategy of de-escalation in order to garner international
support for their positions in territorial conflicts while
easing current tensions with Russia. Vaitiekunas relied on
his trip to pitch Georgia's case to EU Foreign Ministers in
Luxembourg October 17 in an effort to elicit strong EU
conclusions on Georgia-Russia relations. End Summary.

--------------
Lithuanian FM pitches strategy to Georgia
--------------


2. (C) Vaitiekunas traveled to Tbilisi October 12 to present
the Georgians with "a three-point strategy" (about which he
had previously consulted with us and EU Commissioner
Ferrero-Waldner) to garner international support and ease
current tensions with Russia. He was the first EU Foreign
Minister to visit the Georgian capital since the onset of the
current Russian-Georgian showdown. Head of the MFA's
Russia/CIS Department Arunas Vinciunas accompanied the
Minister and debriefed us October 17 on Vaitiekunas's
meetings with President Saakashvili, Parliamentary Speaker
Burjanadze, PM Noghaideli and FM Bezhoushvili, among others.
Vinciunas said the Georgians seemed willing to listen, but
did not necessarily agree with Lithuania's call for patience.
Vaitiekunas urged all of his interlocutors to follow a
"three-point strategy":

-- Be patient. Time is on Georgia's side. Calmer rhetoric
about territorial disputes and a focus on reforms in Georgia
will attract European and world opinion to Georgia's side in
the face of ongoing Russian provocations.

-- Use CIS formats to intensify dialogue with Russia's other
neighbors. Vaitiekunas recommended that Georgia reach out to
CIS chair Kazakhstan to make its case.

-- Engage with Turkey to increase economic ties.

--------------
Saakashvili: "Time is not on our side"
--------------


3. (C) Vinciunas said that Saakashvili appeared calmer than
on past visits. Saakashvili listened to Vaitiekunas's
points, but had, in Vinciunas's opinion, already made his
decision about a course of action. "Time is not on our
side," Saakashvili reportedly replied to Vaitiekunas's
advice. Vaitiekunas told Saakashvili that it would take two
to three months to shift opinion in the EU. "Too long,"
Saakashvili reportedly said. Saakashvili told the Minister
that Russia is pressuring the Abkhaz leader to take military
action in the Kodori Gorge, and that if they do, Georgia will
retaliate. Vinciunas said that he personally believed
Saakashvili's threat of retaliation, but that Lithuanian
Ambassador to Georgia Richardas Degutis thought that
Saakashvili was just delivering that talking point but would
not, ultimately, retaliate and open the door for a war with
Russia.

--------------
Georgians skeptical of CIS formats
--------------


4. (C) Georgian interlocutors were skeptical of Vaitiekunas's
suggestion to use CIS formats to garner support for Georgia's
cause among Russia's neighbors. Vaitiekunas suggested that
Georgia engage CIS chair Kazakhstan to make sure that other
CIS states understand Georgia's position. The Georgians
replied that they have been engaging Kazakhstan: FM
Bezhuashvili recently met with the Kazakh FM in Brussels and
will travel to Kazakhstan soon. The Georgian interlocutors
were nonetheless downbeat about using the CIS format to try
to build support for Georgia's claims. Bezhuashvili
reportedly explained that Georgia feared that if it raised
discussion of Georgia-Russia relations, other CIS countries
would ultimately be forced not to support Georgia, and the
result would be a counterproductive and discouraging show of
support for Russia. Vaitiekunas made the case that a
negative reaction could also benefit Georgia by showing
Europe that the CIS mandate is useless. Lithuania could use
such a result to put pressure on those EU member states that
believe that Georgia-Russia relations are not their business.

-------------- --

VILNIUS 00000952 002 OF 002


Georgia seeking economic engagement with Turkey
-------------- --


5. (SBU) Vinciunas told us that the Minister was preaching
to the choir on the third point suggesting engagement with
Turkey. Georgian Minister for European Integration Baramidze
had recently talked with Barroso as part of his efforts to
persuade the EU to allow Turkey to enter a free trade
agreement with Georgia.

--------------
Pitching Georgia's case to the EU
--------------


6. (C) While preaching calm to Georgia's leaders, Lithuania
was pushing its EU colleagues to take a stronger stance in
support of Georgia. The MFA's EU office told us that the
Minister wanted to visit Georgia before the October 17
General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) so
that he could report on the situation to the Council and
raise Lithuania's credibility as it negotiated Council
Conclusions on Georgia. Lithuania found little support among
EU colleagues for its language, which called Russia's actions
"disproportionate" and called on Russia to cease sanctions
against Georgia (reftel). Several of Lithuania's points
nevertheless survive in the ultimate GAERC conclusions.
Vinciunas told us that Lithuania successfully defended
against the French position to kill the conclusions
altogether and a "surprise" effort by Greece to insert
"Russian language" about relying on the existing negotiating
framework (i.e., the Joint Control Commission) for the
disputes, which Vinciunas dismissed as "bull."

--------------
Lithuania's position
--------------


7. (C) Lithuania's strong advocacy for Georgia has broad
support throughout the GOL. Lithuania's parliament
overwhelmingly passed a resolution on October 17, calling on
Russia to drop all sanctions against Georgia, and lift the
suspension of transport and communication ties. It calls
Russia's actions "disproportionate" and urges both parties to
resume political dialogue to find a means for peace and
stability in the South Caucasus that recognizes Georgia's
"sovereignty and territorial integrity."

--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) The Foreign Ministry prepared for this trip with great
care, starting with the Foreign Minister's discussion with
Ferrero-Waldner and meeting with the Ambassador before the
trip to preview trip themes.
CLOUD