LITHUANIA OUTLINES BELARUS POLICY, ASSISTANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000946

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: PREL LH BO
SUBJECT: LITHUANIA OUTLINES BELARUS POLICY, ASSISTANCE
PRIORITIES

REF: A. VILNIUS 540 B. VILNIUS 705 C. VILNIUS 191 D.

VILNIUS 191

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Classified By: Pol/Econ Cheif Rebecca Dunham for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
)


1. (C) Summary. Lithuanian activism in support of reform in
Belarus continues. In EU structures, Lithuania argues for an
exception for Belarus to the anticipated 60-euro Schengen
visa fee, encourages smarter spending of Commission money to
support democratic forces in Belarus, and will possibly seek
to re-visit the no-cabinet level meeting rule. While
Lithuania supports broadening the travel ban on Belarusian
officials, it will continue to oppose generalized sanctions
-- such as repealing GSP privileges -- that might appear to
hurt the Belarusian people. Lithuania continues its own
modest assistance to Belarusian activist groups, and is still
trying to create its proposed public-private European Fund
for Democracy which could direct funds (presumably from the
EU and elsewhere) to support civil society in Eastern Europe.
End Summary.

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Lithuanian priorities for Belarus
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2. (C) Lithuania's Belarus point man Renatas Juska gave us a
run-down of Lithuania's policy objectives in its most
troublesome neighbor, following the GOL's hosting of the
Friends of Belarus meeting in Vilnius on September 30. As
the country with the closest EU capital to Minsk, Lithuania
sees itself as a natural leader of Belarus policy in the
European Union as well as an effective advocate of Western
and European influence to the Belarusian people. As a trade
partner and major client of Lithuania's port of Klaipeda, the
GOL considers Belarus more important to Lithuania
economically than it is to any other EU member-state.
Lithuania has tried to encourage a more active EU approach to
Belarus that promotes democratic forces, but stops short of
sanctions that could trigger retaliatory economic measures
against Lithuania.


3. (C) In a September 20 non-paper to EU capitals, Lithuania
complained about the EU's "limited scope in the Eastern
neighborhood," saying that "the U.S., 'new' Members of the
EU, and Russia are much more active" than the EU in Belarus.
The Finnish Presidency is "not really paying attention to
Belarus," said Renatas Juska, an MFA official who is in
charge of Lithuania's support for democratic forces in
Belarus. (A Finnish Embassy representative commented to us
separately that the Lithuanians believe that the Finnish
Presidency is not aggressive enough in support for the
Belarusian opposition, but added that the Presidency must
represent the EU consensus. He also added that while
Lithuania complains about lack of EU support for Belarus'
opposition, it was willing to hold up consensus on
withdrawing GSP privileges for "its own commercial interests"
(see below)). Juska complained that lack of expertise about
Belarus can lead the EU to pursue a crude policy of
non-attention and failed democracy programs, followed by
sanctions that do more harm than good.

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Lithuania: Schengen Visa fee will isolate Belarus
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4. (C) For several months Lithuania has sought an exception
to the imminent 60-euro visa fee that will follow Lithuania's
entry in to the Schengen zone, now expected in 2008 (ref D).
According to Juska, more Belarusians visit Lithuania than any
other EU member state, and for those with limited resources
Vilnius is probably the only EU capital they can afford to
visit. Lithuanian officials fear that that an increase in
visa fees will effectively shut Lithuania's border to most
Belarusians. The harmonized Schengen fee of 60 euros is
prohibitively expensive, they say, to Belarusians wanting to
take the four-hour train to Vilnius to go shopping, attend
courses at the European Humanities University (EHU),or
participate in international conferences. The GOL worries
that "people-to-people contact" between Belarusians and other
Europeans will fall dramatically, hurting efforts to foster
democracy. Since Lithuania reduced its visa fee from 20 to
five euros, travel of Belarusians to Lithuania more than
doubled, according to Belarus desk officer Marius Gudynas.

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Revisiting the no-cabinet level engagement rule?
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5. (C) Juska also mentioned the possibility of re-visiting
the rule banning ministerial meetings. Juska reported that
Ambassadors from the UK and Germany raised the issue in the

VILNIUS 00000946 002.2 OF 002


Friends of Belarus meetings, and that their points largely
tracked with Lithuanian views that countries -- especially
those nearby Belarus -- could decide to meet with Ministers
from Belarus on a case-by-case basis, taking into
consideration the business to be done and the track record of
that particular minister. Lithuania has in the past made the
case that engagement with cabinet level officials can also be
a useful influence on the Lukashenko regime, and could
perhaps encourage change within the regime (ref C). (The
previous government occasionally flouted the ban on
ministerial meetings (ref x -- 05 Vilnius 1076)). Lithuania
continues sub-cabinet level engagement of Belarus, and has
raised the level of engagement to seek action on particular
topics, as for example during last June's talks at the Air
Force Commander level about airspace violations (refs A and
B).

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Lithuania opposes generalized sanctions
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6. (C) Lithuania, with Poland and Latvia, recently formed a
blocking minority to resist sanctions in Brussels that would
have withdrawn GSP preferences from Belarus. (Note: the
decision was taken by the 133 Committee despite Lithuania's
efforts to move discussion to the Political and Security
Committee.) According to Juska, Lithuania took its cue from
opposition leaders who think that Belarus lacks the media
resources necessary to adequately convey the message to the
public that the sanctions were aimed at actions of the
Lukashenko regime. Juska told us, citing opposition leaders
(with whom he has regular contact),that generalized
sanctions will only strengthen the isolationist regime. He
said that Lithuania has sought to include more names on the
EU's travel ban list, but has failed to reach consensus on
the expanded list of names with its European counterparts.

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Assistance to opposition groups
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7. (C) Juska added that Lithuania views EU assistance to
Belarus as wasteful and ineffective, claiming that the
Commission grants amounts in sums that are too large and
mismanages projects from Brussels. Lithuania is pushing for
the Commission partially to finance Lithuania's proposed
European Fund for Democracy, which would in turn flexibly
direct support to civil society and democratic forces in
Belarus and elsewhere in Eastern Europe. Lithuania's own
assistance programs have focused on small grants to
"trustworthy" political youth groups and activist
organizations to run information campaigns. Lithuania has
also printed pro-democracy flyers and bulletins for
distribution in Belarus, although he admitted it has been
hard to measure the success of their distribution. Juska
added that the Belarusian KGB has infiltrated the
better-known activist groups, and that foreign donors too
often give money to contacts that undermine democratic
efforts through subterfuge.

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Comment
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8. (C) It's probably no coincidence that the policies that
Juska justifies in terms of democracy -- an exception for
visa fees, no generalized sanctions, higher-level engagement
-- also please those interests in Lithuania who seek to
protect the economic relationship with Belarus. We leave it
to Embassy Minsk to weigh the consequences of revisiting the
EU's restricted engagement rule or opposing generalized
sanctions, but we should expect that Lithuania will continue
its dualistic relationship with Belarus, supporting
democratic forces while pursuing good working relations to
protect Lithuania's important trade and border security
relationship.
CLOUD