Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06VILNIUS760
2006-08-11 12:30:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Vilnius
Cable title:  

INVESTMENT PROSPECTING IN MAZAR-E-SHARIF, AFGHANISTAN: ONE

Tags:  ECON EINV PREL ETRD LH AF 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8032
RR RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVL #0760/01 2231230
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111230Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0478
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000760 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EINV PREL ETRD LH AF
SUBJECT: INVESTMENT PROSPECTING IN MAZAR-E-SHARIF, AFGHANISTAN: ONE
FIRM'S EXPERIENCE

REF: VILNIUS 739

VILNIUS 00000760 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000760

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EINV PREL ETRD LH AF
SUBJECT: INVESTMENT PROSPECTING IN MAZAR-E-SHARIF, AFGHANISTAN: ONE
FIRM'S EXPERIENCE

REF: VILNIUS 739

VILNIUS 00000760 001.2 OF 002



1. SUMMARY: An executive from one of Lithuania's largest companies
visited Afghanistan in July to scout for business and investment
opportunities. Part of a larger GOL delegation, he split from the
group for a few days to visit a fertilizer factory in Mazar-e-Sharif
that his company had assisted in the 1980s. The executive told us
of the obstacles he sees to investing in Afghanistan, including poor
infrastructure and uncertainty about the government's plans for the
future, but also identified some commercial opportunities in
manufacturing plastic bags and selling sweets. The executive's
company is now considering whether and how to invest in Afghanistan.
END SUMMARY.

--------------
A VISIT TO MAZAR-E-SHARIF
--------------


2. Rimantas Sinkevicius, Director of Development at the Achema
Group, visited Mazar-e-Sharif July 13-15 to inspect the
descriptively named "Fertilizer and Electricity Producing Factories
in Mazar-e-Sharif." (NOTE: The Achema Group, Lithuania's second
largest industrial concern, manages a group of 40 companies involved
in everything from producing fertilizers and other chemicals to
managing hotels and running a television station.) Sinkevicius was
part of a larger delegation of Lithuanians (reftel) that visited
Afghanistan, but he was the only member of the delegation to travel
to Mazar-e-Sharif. He related his experience in Afghanistan to us
on August 9.

--------------
A FACTORY TOUR . . .
--------------


3. Some 20 years ago, Achema sent some of its staff to help run this
1960s-era factory. Achema decided it wanted to examine the current
state of the facilities, with an eye towards investing in it, or
even purchasing it outright. Sinkevicius said that the plant has
the capacity to produce 150 tons of urea per year, but currently
produces only 40 tons, and that only one of the four 12 MW turbines
is functioning. He added that the factory's payroll of 2600
employees is three times the size it needs to be, and that the
inconsistent availability and quality of natural gas (a critical raw

material in urea fertilizer production) from neighboring Jawzjan
province was a serious problem for the factory.

--------------
. . . SORT OF
--------------


4. Sinkevicius said that he was unable to actually enter the factory
and inspect its facilities because the factory's director (Abdul
Walek) -- who had been on the job for only a week -- refused to
allow him in without official, written permission from either the
federal government or the local governor. Unfortunately, said
Sinkevicius, the local governor happened to be in Kabul while
Sinkevicius was in Mazar-e-Sharif, effectively preventing him from
obtaining the required permission. Sinkevicius said that he had not
expected this particular obstacle, and that he had not coordinated
his visit to the factory with government or plant officials
beforehand. He said he was not even sure how he could have made
these arrangements. He also said that he was previously unaware of
the services of the Afghan Investment Support Agency (AISA) and that
Achema would contact them in the future.

-------------- ---
SOME OBSTACLES TO INVESTING IN AFGHANISTAN . . .
-------------- ---


5. Sinkevicius offered his observations on the obstacles that Achema
would face if it tried to invest in Afghanistan, many of which would
likely hinder other potential investors, as well:

-- The unreliable supply of natural gas to the factory in
Mazar-e-Sharif;

-- A lack of adequate guarantees and protections for investments,
backed by international institutions like the World Bank;

-- A lack of understanding about the government's plans for
Afghanistan's commercial future (he noted, for instance, that there
are no taxes now, but wonders what will happen in the future when
international donors stop financing the country);

-- Poor infrastructure, especially dilapidated roads and no rail
system;

VILNIUS 00000760 002.2 OF 002



-- A pervasive sense of uncertainty about whether or not the central
government is actually in control and can enforce its decisions;
and

-- Government infighting that seems to focus on the distribution of
the country's assets instead of a political process designed to
enforce the rule of law.

--------------
. . . BUT SOME OPPORTUNITIES, ALSO
--------------


6. Recognizing these obstacles, Sinkevicius nonetheless emphasized
that he saw commercial opportunities for his company in Afghanistan.
In particular, he said that there seemed to be a market for
polypropylene bags, and that investing in a small facility that
could produce these bags for industrial or personal use might make
commercial sense. He also said that he saw markets for sweets and
textbooks, both products that Achema produces. He said that he
would present proposals in support of these ideas in September to
his company's decision-makers, and offered to inform us of their
decisions. Sinkevicius also said that Achema might still be
interested in the fertilizer factory if the Aghan authorities would
also allow it to buy the natural gas well and production facility in
Jawzjan province. Without being able to control the supply of
natural gas, he said, investing in the fertilizer factory was simply
too risky.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. Sinkevicius's trip, which the GOL strongly encouraged,
facilitated, and supported, serves as another demonstration of the
GOL's desire to see the international mission in Afghanistan
succeed. Afghanistan is probably not on the brink of a major inflow
of capital from Lithuania, but a significant Lithuanian commercial
success in Afghanistan would likely pique the interest of other
businesses here. We will stay in touch with Achema and continue to
report on its plans for Afghanistan.

CLOUD