PARLIAMENT REJECTS SOCIAL DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000581

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LH
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT REJECTS SOCIAL DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE FOR
PRIME MINISTER

REF: VILNIUS 562 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Randolph Flay for reasons 1.4(b/d)

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The Lithuanian Parliament today rejected Acting
Prime Minister Zigmantas Balcytis's candidacy for prime
minister. Fifty-two MPs supported the Social Democrat's
candidacy, 48 voted against, and 32 abstained; his
appointment required a simple majority of those present (67
votes). The President now has 15 days to present a new
candidate to the parliament for consideration. Both
Conservative and Social Democratic leaders are calling for
renewed talks aimed at establishing a rainbow coalition. END
SUMMARY.

CONSERVATIVES, LABOR PARTY SCUTTLE SOCDEM CANDIDATE FOR PM
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2. (SBU) Balcytis, President Adamkus's choice for prime
minister (reftel),failed June 20 to garner a simple
majority in parliament. Only 52 MPs supported his candidacy,
48 voted against, and 32 abstained, effectively casting "no"
votes. Balcytis needed 67 votes to secure the prime
ministership. Voting fell along party lines. The Social
Democrat-led coalition, which includes the Civil Democracy,
National Farmer, and Liberal Centrist parties, generally
supported Balcytis. The Conservatives, Social Liberals, and
Liberal Movement voted against his candidacy as expected.
The Social Democrats expected the Labor Party to support
Balcytis, but Labor and Liberal Democrat MPs largely
abstained, effectively sinking Balcytis's candidacy.


3. (SBU) The Social Democrats engaged in intensive talks with
Labor's current cabinet members in an effort to gain votes,
but with little effect. Acting Labor Economy Minister
Kestutis Dauksys on Friday publicly rejected the Social
Democrats' suggestion to leave the Labor party and join a new
cabinet as an independent.

WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT: ANOTHER RAINBOW?
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4. (SBU) The President now has 15 days to present another
prime ministerial candidate to the parliament for
consideration. Social Democrat negotiator and acting Defense
Minister Gediminas Kirkilas stated publicly that he thinks
the most realistic way out of the current political situation
is to renew talks of a rainbow coalition led by the Social
Democrats and Conservatives. Conservative Leader Andrius
Kubilius says he is open to further discussions on the
rainbow coalition and that if the President picks him for PM
that he will invite the Social Democrats to join the
coalition. President Adamkus, currently on an official visit
to Turkey, told the press he will wait until later this week
before making any statements about possible candidates. He
also restated his opposition to holding pre-term elections.


5. (C) Vaclav Stankevic, Social Liberal MP, told us that no
one in the parliament was surprised by the vote and that it
was unfortunate the Social Democrats promised the President
an easy approval. He suspects the Conservative-led bloc,
which includes the Homeland Union, Social Liberals, and
Liberal Movement, will ask the President to nominate Kubilius
for PM and that Kubilius will invite the Social Democrats and
National Farmers to join in a rainbow coalition. Eligijus
Masiulis, Liberal Movement MP, told us that the Conservative
bloc has also initiated talks with the National Farmers and
Civil Democrats to encourage them to join the Conservative
bloc. (Note: This formula would create a bloc of 69 MPs --
two short of a majority -- without the Social Democrats.)

DISSENT WITHIN THE SOCDEMS?
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6. (C) Simonas Satunas, one of President Adamkus's advisors,
told the Charge on June 19 that the SocDems were experiencing
an internal power struggle between Balcytis and acting
Defense Minister Gediminas Kirkilas. Many Social Democrats,
Satunas said, believed that Balcytis's alleged attempt to
join the KGB in the 1980s and allegations that Balcytis's son
may be linked to the fraudulent use of EU funds made Balcytis
an electoral liability. Satunas told us that the many Social
Democrats therefore preferred Kirkilas to Balcytis. (Note:
The Social Democrats uniformly supported Balcytis in today's
vote, however.)

COMMENT

VILNIUS 00000581 002 OF 002


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7. (C) The President's options for Prime Minister are limited
given his desire to keep Labor, the Liberal Centrists, and
the Liberal Democrats of impeached ex-President Rolandas
Paksas (a total of 49 MPs) out of any ruling coalition.
While programmatic differences are a clear obstacle to a
joint Conservative-Social Democrat coalition, most parties
are keen to avoid pre-term elections, at least for now. Many
still see Kubilius as too uncompromising to become the prime
minister, but President Adamkus doesn't have many other
choices.
TKELLY