LABOR PARTY SPLITS, COALITION KEEPS IT TOGETHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000431

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV LH
SUBJECT: LABOR PARTY SPLITS, COALITION KEEPS IT TOGETHER

REF: A. VILNIUS 357


B. VILNIUS 367

C. VILNIUS 376

Classified By: POL/ECON Officer Randolph Flay for reasons 1.4 b and d

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Eight members of parliament, including the newly
elected Speaker, withdrew from the Labor Party May 2 and 3,
formed a new parliamentary group, and promised to support the
ruling coalition of which they are no longer officially
members. Over four hundred Labor Party members followed the
parliamentarians and exited the party. The exodus reflected
dissatisfaction with party leader Viktor Uspaskich, rather
than with the direction of the Government, and we expect the
coalition to continue in power without interruption. When
the dust settles, Prime Minister Brazauskas will likely have
strengthened his control of the Government. The events may
also herald a rough road ahead for Uspaskich's Labor Party.
End summary.

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Labor Flight
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2. (U) Eight MPs, including Speaker of Parliament Viktoras
Muntianas, left the Labor Party May 2 and 3 in protest of
party leader Uspaskich's "undemocratic" leadership.
Muntianas's disaffection with the party followed Uspaskich's
April 29 decision to remove Muntianas from his position as
party vice chairman. Other exiting MPs publicly voiced
concern about press reports of Uspaskich's romantic and moral
misadventures. More than 400 Labor Party members, including
the local leaders and the mayor of Uspaskich's hometown,
Kedainiai, exited regional chapters in Kedainiai and
Lithuania's second largest city, Kaunas.


3. (U) The break-away Labor Party members, together with
three independent parliamentarians and a Liberal Democrat,
established a new parliamentary group, the Civil Democracy
group. (Note: Parliamentary groups are distinct from
political parties, which must meet membership and
registration criteria, and with which they are generally
associated.) Media report that the group plans to establish
a new party or, to avoid the bureaucratic process of
registering a new party, to take over with the Citizens'
Union, a political party of fewer than 2,000 members and no
MPs who broke away from former President Rolandas Paksas's
Liberal Democrats in early 2005.

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Coalition ) Stirred, not Shaken
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4. (C) The flight of the Labor Party MPs leaves the
three-party coalition, at least temporarily, with 62 seats in
the 141-member parliament, but the Government faces little
risk, despite its minority status. The new Civil Democracy
group has declared support for the coalition's program and
signed an agreement May 10 to cooperate with the coalition's
parliamentary groups, thereby restoring a voting majority.
If the group establishes itself as a party, Social Democratic
MP Algirdas Paleckis told us, it will likely be able to join
the coalition.


5. (U) For now, Muntianas continues to hold his position as
Speaker. Vice Speaker Ceslovas Jursenas, one of the most
influential Social Democrats in the parliament, remarked to
the media that he does not see any need for Muntianas's
removal given his expressed and continued support for the
coalition's program. Without party status, the group can
make no claim to cabinet seats, but does control four
parliamentary leadership positions in addition to the
Speaker, including the chairs of the budget and finance
committee and the intelligence oversight committee.

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Taking Uspaskich Down -- One Peg
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6. (U) Muntianas's move wrested the Speaker and committee
heads from the Labor Party's direct control. According to
media reports, Muntianas tried also to convince the PM to
shift the coalition council from the parties to the
parliamentary groups, a move that would have cut Uspaskich
(not an MP) out of decision-making. Brazauskas said no.

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VILNIUS 00000431 002 OF 002


Cabinet Seats
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7. (C) PM Brazauskas has delayed presenting to President
Valdas Adamkus the resignations of FM Antanas Valionis and
Social Protection and Labor Minister (S&L Minister) Vilija
Blinkeviciute (ref A). The PM is currently traveling outside
Lithuania, and reports suggest that he will submit the
resignations along with his candidates for the posts on or
after May 15. While contacts within the Presidency told us
they expect Brazauskas to nominate Ambassador Petras
Vaitekunas for Foreign Minister and LP's Loreta Grauziniene
for Social Protection and Labor Minister, analysts speculate
that if Muntianas forms a party in the meantime, he could
claim a seat.

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COMMENT: Coalition Stability
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8. (C) Lithuania,s multiparty politics is as volatile as
ever. The redistribution of Cabinet seats is on hold, MPs'
party affiliations are in flux, and the number of parties
constituting the now-minority ruling coalition keeps
changing. What has not changed is the Government,s
underlying stability and character. The coalition will
likely restore its majority status as quickly as it
reconstituted its parliamentary voting strength. For one
thing, the players remain the same. For another, there is no
plausible alternative.


9. (C) The most intriguing development concerns the Labor
Party. While it is premature to write off what remains the
biggest group in the coalition, Muntianas and company,s
departure certainly weakens Labor leader Uspaskich.
KELLY