LITHUANIAN COALITION LOSES ITS MAJORITY, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000376

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV LH
SUBJECT: LITHUANIAN COALITION LOSES ITS MAJORITY, BUT
LIKELY TO RETAIN POWER

REF: REF A: VILNIUS 356 REF B: VILNIUS 367

Classified By: Pol/econ officer Traver Gudie for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: A member of Lithuania's ruling coalition,
Kazys Bobelis, withdrew from his party April 20, depriving
the coalition government of a clear majority in the
Parliament. This move comes nine days after the parliament
removed its speaker, prompting the speaker's Nw Union
(Social Liberals) party to exit the ruling coalition, thus
reducing the coalition's majority to a narrow 71 of 141 seats
and (presumably) vacating two ministerial posts (reftels).
Bobelis' withdrawal is not the result of a concerted effort
by opposition parties to pull members from the coalition, and
coalition MPs are (rightly) confident that the coalition
parties will remain in power. The move nonetheless
complicates the negotiations over vacant ministerial posts
for foreign affairs and labor, and may affect horse-trading
over the newly vacant chairs of four parliamentary committees
(including NATO and Ethics),as the coalition parties
negotiate with individual MPs and even other parties about
joining the would-be majority. END SUMMARY.

Bobelis' withdrawal is a surprise to everyone
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2. (C) Bobelis, a Lithuanian-American urologist who spends
much of his time in Florida, announced April 27 his intention
to withdraw from the National Farmers Union and join the
Liberal Democrats, an opposition party led by the impeached
president Rolandas Paksas. Explaining his withdrawal to the
press, Bobelis criticized his party and the ruling coalition
as ineffective and intrigue-driven. A National Farmer's
Union Elder publicly characterized Bobelis's motivations
differently, saying that he left after the party declined to
seek the Foreign Minister's post, long an (unrealistic)
aspiration of Bobelis. Laima Mogeniene, a member of the
National Farmer's Union parliamentary caucus, told us that
Bobelis's withdrawal came as a surprise. Mogeniene said that
the 83-year-old Bobelis had earlier told his then-party
colleagues that he intended to leave parliament to make way
for another party member from the party list.

Coalition confident it will retain power
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3. (C) MPs from the ruling coalition have told us that they
are confident that Bobelis' move does not threaten the
coalition's rule, telling us that they are working to attract
minority MPs or even a fourth party to the coalition.
Algirdas Paleckis, of the ruling Social Democratic Party,
told us that the coalition parties are negotiating with
several opposition MPs as well as other parties. Asked about
deals with the Social Liberals (who just left the coalition),
or the Liberal Democrats, Paleckis said, "all options are
open." Social Democrat Juozas Olekas assured journalists
April 20 that the coalition will be able to defend its
government and legislative initiatives relying on the votes
of opposition members and the parliament's six unaffiliated
members. An influential member of the opposition from the
Conservatives, Rasa Jukneviciene, privately agreed that the
coalition would be able to attract another party or
individual members to the coalition government, and that, in
any case, there was little chance of unity among the
opposition. She told us that coalition representatives were
negotiating with various other opposition parties: the
Liberal and Center Union, the Liberal Movement, and the
Liberal Democrats.

Horse-trading continues, composition of cabinet uncertain
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4. (C) The three-party coalition will continue negotiations
for the vacant posts of the foreign affairs and labor
ministers, previously held by the Social Liberals. Hoping to
remain Labor minister, the popular politician Vilija
Blinkeviciute has withdrawn her resignation, which she had
given to the PM following her party's withdrawal from the
coalition. The press reports that the three coalition
parties nevertheless agree that she is unlikely to continue
in the post. The Labor Party has declared that it will claim
the rights to both posts and will propose candidates to fill
them. However, the National Farmer's Union implied to the
press that the Social Democrats had promised their party the
Labor minister's post. Several MPs from various parties told
us that the composition of the cabinet remains uncertain.

Comment: Ruling parties likely to retain power
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5. (C) This is not the last act in Lithuania's current

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political drama. While loss of majority and the coalition's
attempt to attract members from the opposition may affect the
current horse-trading in parliament, it will probably not
upset the tripartite coalition,s rule.
KELLY