ELECTION EVE DUSTUP IN LITHUANIA-BELARUS RELATIONS

UNCLAS VILNIUS 000278

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EUR/NB AND EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV BO LH
SUBJECT: ELECTION EVE DUSTUP IN LITHUANIA-BELARUS RELATIONS



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Lithuanian-Belarusian relations are tense
on the eve of the March 19 elections. The decision by the
Minsk regime to deny visas to six Lithuanian MPs who planned
to observe the elections led Parliament to pass a resolution
condemning the Lukashenko government. The Lithuanian Foreign
Minister summoned the Belarusian Charge to protest the visa
refusals, and publicly commented harshly on the Belarusian
government's actions. Lithuanian national television will
host an election night event and a follow-up session on March
20 to cover election developments. In the coming days, we
expect a high level of anxiety and attention here focusing on
Belarus. END SUMMARY.

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MPs Refused Entry
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2. (U) The decision by the Belarusian government March 16 to
deny visas to six Lithuanian parliamentary would-be election
observers set off a round of recriminations and guaranteed
the passage of a previously-postponed parliamentary
resolution on Belarus. (Ten MPs did receive visas and, after
much discussion, decided to go to Belarus despite their
displeasure about the treatment of their colleagues.) The
resolution, which included criticism of the Minsk regime's
actions during the campaign, had languished for days because
of the dilatory tactics of Social Democrats and Labor Party
members, who favored a post-election release. But when the
Belarusians denied visas to one MP from each of these
parties, they resolved to respond.


3. (SBU) Several of the Parliamentarians whom the
Belarusians denied are firebrand anti-Lukashenko Conservative
Party MPs. One of them, Rasa Jukneviciene, told us privately
that the group expected denials, especially after the
official newspaper of the Belarus Ministry of Defense
published a scathing piece about one of proposed observers,
Conservative MP Emanuelis Zingeris.


4. (U) Foreign Minister Antanas Valionis, speaking to
Parliament March 16, called the visa decision "scandalous"
and promised a harsh reaction. He then summoned Belarusian
Charge Vladimir Voronkovich to the MFA and delivered a note
protesting the denials.

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Lithuanian Election-Day Observers
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5. (SBU) Lithuania sent 42 observers to the ODIHR mission.
Four members of Lithuania's Central Electoral Committee also
arrived in Belarus on March 16. The ten MPs who did receive
visas will leave for Belarus on March 17. Lithuania also
planned to send an unspecified number of observers on a
bilateral basis.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: The GOL has invested much effort and
resources to support pro-democracy forces in Belarus. This
has not gone unnoticed by the Minsk regime, with the visa
denials following accusations two weeks ago by Lukashenko
that the GOL was helping to organize a coup in Belarus.
Lithuanian national television will host an election-night
event March 19 for government leaders, NGOs, and the media,
which the Ambassador will attend. We expect tensions to be
high as Lithuania contemplates the possibility that relations
with its problematic neighbor may get even worse after the
elections.
MULL