LITHUANIA'S PRO-DEMOCRACY SUMMIT: AN OPPORTUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000135

SIPDIS

EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2016
TAGS: PREL LH
SUBJECT: LITHUANIA'S PRO-DEMOCRACY SUMMIT: AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE USG

Classified By: Political-Economic Officer Nancy A, Cohen


1. (U) Summary. Lithuania intends to hold a high-profile
"Summit of the Communities for Democratic Choice" May 4-5 in
Vilnius. GOL conference organizers are aiming high, hoping
to build momentum towards democracy among transitional
countries in the former Soviet Union. They plan to convene
heads of state or other high-level representatives from
Ukraine, Moldova, and Bulgaria, as well as the Baltic,
Caucasus, and EU countries, and claim that many have already
indicated they will attend. The Government may invite
Russian participants as well. The GOL hopes that the summit
will nudge the European Union to be more proactive in helping
the EU's neighbors to tack more assertively toward the West.
The Summit provides an opportunity to promote our core
objective of encouraging the spread of democracy in the
region. We believe it deserves USG support, including
high-level participation, which could help the GOL attract
significant officials from Western Europe. End Summary.

Goal: Embracing Europe's Eastern Frontier
--------------


2. (U) MFA Political Director Zygimantas Pavilionis told the
Ambassador January 23 that Lithuania intends to convene a
Summit of European leaders May 4-5 to hold a strategic policy
debate on how to promote democracy in the East. Lithuania,
Pavilionis said, would like the European Union to adopt a
more proactive neighborhood policy. This would include more
EU money and technical assistance for strategic partnerships
with countries that assertively express interest in the West.
The GOL sees the Summit as an opportunity to push the EU in
this direction, and hopes the discussion will accelerate
further EU expansion.


3. (C) Pavilionis said that the EU has ignored the
Communities for Democratic Choice (CDC) to date, except to
demarche the GOL twice to chastise the President for having
gotten ahead of EU policy makers by participating in last
August's meeting in Ukraine that launched the organization.
The PolDir confided that, until now, the CDC has been a
public relations exercise without content. At the Summit,
Pavilionis anticipates discussion on how to take advantage of
pro-democratic inclinations in the East.

Participation: Casting a Wide Net
--------------


4. (C) The GOL sees the conference taking on an expanded 3
3 format. For now, they anticipate attendees from the three
Baltic states, the three Caucasus, EU aspirants, and EU
presidency (current and future),plus neighborhood friends
like Poland, the United States, and perhaps Germany. Tomas
Gulbinas, head of the MFA's EU Common Foreign and Security
Policy Division, claimed that EU HR Javier Solana had already
informed the GOL of his intention to participate in Summit,
as had the heads of state of Austria, Ukraine, Moldova, and
the Caucasus countries. (We are in the process of confirming
this independently with local Embassies.) The Lithuanians
are wrestling with whether to include Turkey (fearing that
doing so will alienate Armenia),and are also considering an
invitation to Russia, to demonstrate to the Kremlin that the
spread of democracy on its borders is a positive development,
not a threat.


5. (C) Lithuania hoped to interest a European partner in
co-hosting the conference in order to secure the EU's
imprimatur for the event, but the Europeans appear
unconvinced. In Berlin January 26, the Germans were cool to
Pavilionis's pitch that they co-host. (We had previously
heard that Poland would co-host the event, but the GOL has
since determined there is a greater need to get Western
European buy-in.) In subsequent discussions in Munich
February 3 with Lithuania's FM Valionis, German FM
Frank-Walter Steinmeier confirmed the GOG's interest and
support for the conference, but said that Chancellor Merkel's
schedule would not allow her to attend. Pavilionis looks for
the United States to play a central role in the conference,
with full participant status, to highlight the transatlantic
dimension of the EU's neighborhood strategy. He also said he
hopes the USG will encourage others to participate.

The Neighborhood Writ Large
--------------


6. (U) Responding to the Ambassador's questions about the
structure and scope of the CDC, Pavilionis said that the May
meeting will help determine that, but that the immediate need
is to provide content. He could see the scope of discussions
and participation to include Central Asian members of the
former Soviet Union. Pavilionis was insistent, however, that
the organization will not simply become a band of "Che
Guevaras;" they are discussing how best to include Russia and
to demonstrate that expansion of democracy is in the GOR's
interest.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Lithuania and others want to inspire the European
Union toward a more activist, avowedly pro-democracy
neighborhood policy. The Lithuanians understand, however,
that they need help to raise EU awareness of the issue.
Germany's reticence to assume a leadership role for the
Summit was a disappointment, but the GOL will keep looking
for a larger country in Western Europe to fill that role.
They recognize that without the active engagement of the EU's
larger states, the EU is unlikely to play a significant role
in promoting democracy in the former Soviet Union.


8. (C) The USG can and should help. Lithuania's Neighborhood
agenda tracks our own -- from providing constructive support
for democratic forces in Belarus to maintaining stable
relations with Russia. Our announcement of high-level
participation will raise the pressure on big EU member states
to match our level of representation -- which in turn will
increase the chances that the Summit succeeds in encouraging
democratic development on Europe's eastern flank.
MULL