LAOS WEEKLY AVIAN INFLUENZA REPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENTIANE 000757

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SUBJECT: LAOS WEEKLY AVIAN INFLUENZA REPORT

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1. Summary: The GoL says it has succeeded in controlling AI -
the kind of statement that suggests that they do not fully
appreciate the seriousness of the situation. Public reporting
on AI has improved somewhat, due to GoL nervousness about
recent outbreaks, but the fact is the response was too little
too late. The Thai and Lao authorities are making some
efforts to cooperate, but much more public education is
needed. Also, an important point regarding compensation for
farmers should enter the AI canon - only culled birds should
be counted. End summary.

Much ado about little
--------------

2. The GoL is now claiming to have bird flu under control,
and that the culling operations during July were completely
successful. The sanitary cordon around the affected villages
remains in place and the humans there are being monitored for
flu-like symptoms. Post is not so optimistic. No more
outbreaks have been reported, but surveillance remains patchy
at best, and the small outbreak that began in June, and was
only "discovered" in July, stretched the GoL's response
capabilities to the limit. While visiting AI experts
compliment the Lao on their quick response in order to
encourage them, in fact the response was tardy and
inadequate. Furthermore, we have seen that the GoL remains
perfectly capable of concealing negative information. Despite
many warnings, even in Vientiane Capitol chickens and ducks
are routinely mixed together in live markets. This need not
surprise anyone, for most of the public information about AI
has been in the English Language press, read mostly by
expats. Lao language reporting on it has been much more
limited, though that situation has improved somewhat over the
past two weeks.

The GoL's attitude
--------------

3. We surmise that the improvement on the Lao side was due to
the GoL having a scare put into them by the prospect of
larger-scale outbreaks. Also, Thai media coverage, which
blankets Laos, has been plentiful, so the chicken was out of
the bag when Thai TV began to suggest that the Lao were
sending them diseased poultry. Despite the mutual Thai-Lao
tendency to blame everything on each other, animal health
officials from both countries are now meeting regularly and
are at last talking about a coordinated effort to prevent and
contain outbreaks along the border. With a long and largely
unguarded river border, though, it is difficult to see how
any control on the movements of poultry will be effective
unless the average person becomes well enough informed and
well enough intended to cooperate. Much more public
information is needed, along with incentives to report
outbreaks. The GoL is being responsive to USG offers of
training, especially on the human health side, as evidenced
by their participation in an HSS-sponsored APEC pandemic
preparedness exercise in Singapore, August 16-17.

No whackee no payee
--------------

4. The question of incentives leads to a point that bears
repeating here: An honestly run and efficient compensation
scheme is crucial to successful surveillance, as poultry
farmers fear and will resist culling by concealing outbreaks
in the hope of keeping some of their stock alive. The Lao
Animal Health Authorities have already complained that
villagers and poultry farmers are concealing their birds from
them, and otherwise thwarting investigations. In response to
requests for comments on slowly evolving UNDP/FAO/GoL draft
plans to compensate poultry breeders affected by AI, Post has
remarked that is very important not to compensate for birds
that die of AI on their own - only culled birds should be
compensated for, either with cash or with live chicks (a
possible gain for American poultry breeders if American
chicks can be used). To do otherwise would encourage cheating
and create a situation in which the numbers of birds involved
would be impossible to determine accurately. Furthermore,

VIENTIANE 00000757 002.2 OF 002


scarce human resources would get tied up in confirmation
efforts involving needless contact with diseased or dead
animals, and the incentive to report outbreaks would be
greatly diluted. A part of the draft plan that provides for
compensation by kilogram is, for the same reasons,
nonsensical. However, if farmers know they can only get
compensated by reporting sick birds that are going to die
anyway, the incentive to report will be strong.
ROLSTON