AS HMONG INSURGENT NUMBERS DECLINE, GOL UPS THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENTIANE 000390

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, PRM
HANOI ALSO FOR HCMC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2016
TAGS: PINS PHUM PREF PREL LA
SUBJECT: AS HMONG INSURGENT NUMBERS DECLINE, GOL UPS THE
PRESSURE

REF: VIENTIANE 360

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia M. Haslach, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Since early March, Lao People's Army (LPA) forces have
conducted a dry season mopping-up operation against remnant
insurgents, leading to numerous civilian casualties.
Sustained military pressure in Bolikhamsai province has
decimated insurgents there, with hundreds of mostly women and
children either surrendering or being captured by Lao
military and at least one senior insurgent leader fleeing the
country. In the former Saisomboun Special Zone, the leader of
what is probably the largest insurgent group has appealed to
the international community to help as many as 500 women and
children in his band surrender. The Lao have categorically
denied reports of a massacre of 26 Hmong civilians in April,
but evidence of the event is overwhelming. With the GoL
keeping a tight lid on information about this conflict and
our diplomatic colleagues inclined to overlook the tragedy,
we believe the best hope for the many women and children
living in the forest is that they can reach populated areas
to turn themselves in to civilian authorities. End summary.

Bolikhamsai fighting
--------------

2. (C) The apparent focus of LPA efforts against the
insurgency this year has been northern Bolikhamsai province,
near the border with Vietnam. We have received a steady
stream of reports from Hmong sources since March that the
LPA, assisted by Vietnamese troops, was launching regular
assaults against several groups in the Sang River valley of
northern Viengthong district. These sources have reported
that in late March perhaps several hundred Hmong civilians
associated with insurgent leader Sinone either surrendered or
were captured by LPA troops in the area. These civilians were
reportedly taken to Muang Mok district in southern Xieng
Khouang province, an area where many former insurgents have
resettled. However, Hmong contacts in Thailand have not been
able to make contact with those who were taken to Muang Mok,
and their fate is unknown.


3. (C) One result of these attacks was the flight from the
country of a senior Hmong insurgent leader, Wa Meng Yang, aka
Sai Pia Yang. Yang fled to Thailand with a nephew in March or
April, having been separated from his family during an LPA
attack in which a number of families were captured by Lao
troops. Yang reported from Thailand that a further 200-250
Hmong remained in the Sang River area, scattered in small
groups. The senior commander remaining in the Sang Valley, we
believe, is Sinone Sosinsay, an ethnic Lao who continues to
report via satellite phone to contacts outside the country
about the conditions of those remaining in the forest. Sinone
reported earlier this week, for example, that on April 16 LPA
troops attacked one subgroup of Hmong, killing 16, including
13 children. (Comment: Unlike the April 6 massacre, we do
not have corroborating evidence of this attack. End comment.)

Saisomboun leader looks to surrender
--------------

4. (C) Separately several sources have reported to us that
Moua Toua Ther, the commander of probably the largest
remaining Hmong insurgent band -- about 500 people, now made
up mostly of women and children -- has appealed to the
international community to persuade the Lao government to
permit women and children in his group to surrender. Moua
made this appeal in mid-April, writing as well to the UN
Secretary General. As a result of his appeal to the UN, UN

SIPDIS
New York has authorized the UNDP ResRep in Vientiane to raise
this incident with the GoL. Subsequent conversations with
Hmong sources in contact with him suggest the Hmong remain
fearful they will be massacred if they try to surrender
without some international observers present. This group is
located south of Route 7 in southern Xieng Khouang province
and the western part of the former Siasomboun Special Zone,
near the site where a group of 170 women and children
surrendered last June.

Vientiane massacre
--------------

5. (C) Finally, LPA forces in northern Vientiane have

VIENTIANE 00000390 002 OF 002


continued a campaign against scattered Hmong insurgent groups
operating east of Route 13. As reported reftel (notal),on
April 16 LPA troops attacked what we believe was an unarmed
group of Hmong "remote people" out gathering food, killing
26, 25 of whom were women and children. This attack was part
of a larger effort to eliminate the last groups still
operating in the Vientiane area. News of this massacre has
been widely circulated based on the accounts of survivors.
We have raised it with the GoL, with the request that the
government investigate the incident and, if LPA forces are
found culpable, punish those responsible.


6. (C) On April 27, the Director of the MFA's
newly-established Human Rights Unit told us that the incident
was a "fabrication" by exile Hmong groups. We pressed hard on
this, pointing out that evidence of the event was
overwhelming, from multiple sources, and we were not
satisfied with this categorical denial of the event. We have
asked the Lao to contact appropriate military authorities in
Vientiane province and in the MND to fully investigate the
massacre. Ambassador has also requested a meeting with the
Governor of Vientiane province, himself a former general, to
discuss the killing.

Comment
--------------

7. (C) The insurgency is on its last legs. Probably some
small groups will continue to hold out in the remotest
corners of the country for years to come, but the days of the
large, organized insurgent bands such as those visited by
foreign journalists in 2002 and 2003 are numbered. The LPA's
stranglehold tactic of cutting the insurgents off from food
sources and launching harassing attacks have devastated the
major groups. Casualties among the insurgents, mostly of
women and children, are hard to gauge but we suspect number
in the hundreds this year alone. Of those, probably most have
died of hunger and disease, but artillery fire, occasional
helicopter attacks and small arms have all taken a toll.


8. (C) Even as these reports gain currency abroad, the GoL
continues to deny there is an insurgency or any sort of armed
conflict in the Lao PDR. Remote areas of Bolikhamsai, the
former Saisomboun and even Vientiane province are so cut off
from the outside that this war can literally take place out
of sight and mind even of the expat community in Vientiane.
Just to make sure it stays that way, the GoL has limited
access to some areas. For example, NGO contacts have
informed us that northern Bolikhamsai has been put off-limits
to their staff. Word leaks out, but without journalistic
access to the embattled groups or film footage of the
after-effects of the military campaign, the world's interest
in this issue is limited. With no chance that the Lao
government will suddenly change its tune and admit to the
existence of this small-scale conflict, we believe that the
best hope for those Hmong "remote people" still in the forest
is to make their way to areas where they can turn themselves
in to civilian authorities and seek resettlement. End
comment.
HASLACH