CODEL WEXLER'S DISCUSSIONS ON IRAN WITH AUSTRIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L VIENNA 000655

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR, EUR/ERA, EUR/PGI, EUR/AGS, NEA, NEA/NGA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2016
TAGS: PREL ETTC IR AU IAEA EUN
SUBJECT: CODEL WEXLER'S DISCUSSIONS ON IRAN WITH AUSTRIAN
CHANCELLERY


Classified By: DCM SCOTT KILNER FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d)


1. (C) Congressman Robert Wexler (D-Florida) and
Professional Staff Member Jonathan Katz, accompanied by DCM
and PolOff, met with Chancellor Schuessel's foreign policy
adviser Hans Peter Manz on February 22. Manz gave his views
on next steps in reaction to Iran's actions regarding its
nuclear program. While predicting that Iran would continue
to draw out the nuclear negotiations as long as possible )
citing recent history as well as traditional Iranian skill at
negotiating ) Manz nevertheless predicted that the matter
would progress to the UN Security Council in March. He
questioned, however, the amount of effective action that
would then result. Manz cautioned that the West must not
apply its usual way of thinking in analyzing Iranian
political affairs. Outside of some elements in the capital,
he maintained, the regime is mostly popular, and we should
not expect a "public uprising" against the government if
sanctions weaken the economy.


2. (C) Manz offered that prospects for eventual European
agreement to sanctions on Iran would depend on how the
sanctions were structured. He favored a limited regime of
sanctions that targeted the decisionmakers rather than the
population, although he confessed that he had no clear
concept on how to achieve that. Manz opined that broad
sanctions on trade with Iran would not work, pointing to
Iran's long borders and coastline. Targeting of Iran's
refined oil imports was less far-fetched, but the question
would be how to compensate for the almost-certain Iranian
retaliation in blocking raw oil exports. While it is
conceivable to make up for Iranian oil exports for a limited
time, the cooperation of the other major oil exporters will
be vital to making up the difference. Manz also pointed out
the humanitarian impact of the loss of oil revenue.

Congressman Wexler did not have an opportunity to clear this
message before departure.
McCaw