AUSTRIAN CHANCELLERY'S VIEWS ON HAMAS: STICK TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L VIENNA 000653

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SECSTATE FOR EUR, EUR/ERA, EUR/AGS, NEA, NEA/IPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2016
TAGS: PREL KPAL GM AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRIAN CHANCELLERY'S VIEWS ON HAMAS: STICK TO
QUARTET LINE


Classified By: DCM SCOTT KILNER, FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d).


1. (C) Congressman Robert Wexler (D-Florida) and
Professional Staff Member Jonathan Katz, joined by DCM and
PolOff, met with Chancellor Schuessel's senior foreign policy
adviser, Hans Peter Manz, on February 22. Manz spoke at
length on the approach that Austria's EU Presidency is taking
toward Hamas. EU-U.S. solidarity on Hamas is critical, Manz
said, stressing that the EU and the Austrian Presidency want
to stick to the Quartet line and are in no way interested in
a split with the United States. Manz (whose views almost
certainly reflect those of Schuessel) added that the EU
cannot and will not step back from the three conditions the
Quartet established.


2. (C) Manz cited Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel as a
solid force for future transatlantic unity on Hamas. Simply
put, "Germany won't allow" a softer EU position on Hamas, he
said. The recent controversy over the Danish cartoons only
makes it more probable that the EU will not stray from the
Quartet policy, Manz predicted. Manz said European publics
will not accept any "appeasement" of militant Islam after
recent incidents vilifying Europe in the Muslim world --
although individual politicians might want to try.


3. (C) Manz's biggest concern was that Hamas at some point
might begin to "pay lip service" to the Quartet conditions
while not substantively changing its policies. He made an
analogy to Sinn Fein and the IRA, suggesting that Hamas could
develop a quasi-respectable political wing nominally
separated from a more militant armed unit.


4. (C) Manz summed up his formula for medium-term policy as:
"Watch Hamas, wait for the Israeli election, and work with
the resulting new Israeli government." The best strategy, he
thought, was first to work through Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas, who also has the mandate of the Palestinian
people. Manz opined that the international community will
not definitively have to decide how to approach Hamas until
after the Israeli election. Hamas does not know where it
stands right now and will need time to organize after its
surprising victory, he said. After the formation of the next
Israeli government, Austria and the EU will have to
coordinate their policy with Israel. Manz predicted that
Hamas will eventually pay a high price domestically for
raising public expectations that it will not be able to meet.



5. (C) One important parameter is how to continue
humanitarian aid, Manz said. If that is lacking from Europe
and the U.S., Hamas could turn to "other sources," although
Manz though that it was unclear whether those sources could
sustain a sufficient level of aid for an extended period.

Congressman Wexler did not have an opportunity to clear this
message before departure.
McCaw