Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06VIENNA2941
2006-10-02 13:01:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Vienna
Cable title:  

Austria's October 1 Election Surprise: People's Party

Tags:  PGOV PREL AU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6596
OO RUEHAST
DE RUEHVI #2941/01 2751301
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 021301Z OCT 06 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY VIENNA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5114 IMMEDIATE
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VIENNA 002941 

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - CHANGED PRECEDENCE

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU
SUBJECT: Austria's October 1 Election Surprise: People's Party
(OVP) Falls Badly, Schuessel Likely to Lose Chancellorship

REFS: (a) Vienna 2787, (b) Vienna 2924

VIENNA 00002941 001.8 OF 003


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VIENNA 002941

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - CHANGED PRECEDENCE

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU
SUBJECT: Austria's October 1 Election Surprise: People's Party
(OVP) Falls Badly, Schuessel Likely to Lose Chancellorship

REFS: (a) Vienna 2787, (b) Vienna 2924

VIENNA 00002941 001.8 OF 003



1. Summary: Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel's Austrian People's
Party (OVP) suffered a stinging defeat at the polls on October 1.
Contrary to every pollster's and analyst's expectations (and ours as
well),Schuessel's party plummeted 8 points to second place. The
opposition Social Democratic Party (SPO) also actually did worse
than in the last elections, ending up on the low end of pundits'
predictions. But what matters is that the SPO is the strongest
party, and will have the first shot at forming the next government
and thereby claiming the Chancellorship. The most likely result is
a return to a grand coalition (SPO-OVP). At the moment, the only
other mathematical possibility -- one Schuessel has publicly ruled
out -- is an OVP coalition with its current partner, the
Alliance-Future-Austria (BZO),and the far right Freedom Party
(FPO). Absentee ballots could conceivably open the door to a
Red-Green coalition, but the count will not be available for at
least a week. End Summary.

--------------
By the Numbers
--------------

Party -- Percentage of Votes 2006 2002
-------------- -------------- --------------

People's Party (OVP) 34.2 42.30
Social Democratic Party (SPO) 35.7 36.51
Freedom Party (FPO) 11.2 10.01
Greens 10.5 9.47
Alliance-Future-Austria (BZO) 4.2 n/a
Hans-Peter Martin 2.8 n/a
Communist Party (KPO) 1.0 0.56
Other 0.3

Turnout: 74.2 percent of registered voters (2002: 85 percent).

Party -- Parliamentary Seats 2006 2002
-------------- -------------- --------------

(Necessary for majority: 92)
People's Party (OVP) 66 79
Social Democratic Party (SPO) 68 69
Freedom Party (FPO) 21 (see below)
Greens 20 17
Alliance-Future-Austria (BZO) 8 (see below)
Hans-Peter Martin 0 n/a
Communist Party (KPO) 0 0
Other 0 0

(Note: In 2002, the FPO won 18 seats in parliament. When the BZO
split off of the party, 16 members of the FPO caucus joined the new
party, while two remained with Heinz-Christian Strache's FPO. End

note.)

--------------
The Only Poll That Counts...
--------------


2. Austria's voters dealt a severe and unexpected blow to
Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel in national elections on October 1.
After having held a clear and commanding lead in opinion polls
throughout the campaign, Schuessel's conservative Austrian People's
Party (OVP) fell far below the level even his opponents had hoped to
see. From predictions (ref b, for example) of a 38-40 percent
showing, support for the OVP dropped to just 34.2 percent in the
only poll that counts the election.


3. The tallies for the other parties were more or less what
prognosticators had expected, except for the BZO, which appears to
have cleared the 4 percent threshold to enter parliament. The
Social Democratic Party (SPO) even lost support from its 2002
showing, coming in at 35.7 percent -- rather at the low end of
pre-election forecasts. But it was enough to give the SPO and its
chief, Alfred Gusenbauer, the unalloyed thrill of a first place
finish.


4. The FPO and Greens both came in at the high end of what most had
predicted. As it had in 2002, the FPO emerged as the third-largest
party, winning 11.0 percent of the vote. The Greens, with 10.5
percent, achieved their best result ever in an Austrian national
election.


5. Apart from the OVP's tumble, the biggest and most significant
surprise came from the "Alliance-Future-Austria" (BZO). Joerg
Haider's "chip off the FPO" appears to have barely crossed the four
percent threshhold necessary to enter parliament. The protest party
of SPO renegade Hans-Peter Martin faded, taking only 2.8 percent and
falling short of a parliamentary mandate.


VIENNA 00002941 002.6 OF 003



6. Given these results, every party except the OVP (and Hans-Pater
Martin) was more or less jubilant on the night of the elections.
There were some pointed barbs thrown at prognosticators. As BZO
floor leader Herbert Scheibner put it, "you might as well have hired
a fortune teller with a crystal ball."

--------------
Now What? Chancellor Gusenbauer?
--------------


7. As all political analysts (including us) wipe the egg off their
faces, we are able to see fairly clearly what the vote totals mean
for the distribution of seats in parliament. While the SPO's
strength dropped by a seat to 68, the OVP dropped 13 seats. If
these circumstances hold through the final tally, with the magic
number for a majority at 92, the only possibility of a two-party
coalition would be a Grand Coalition. (Note: As we discuss below, a
three-party right wing coalition remains mathematically possible.
End note.)


8. The time frame for coalition formation is a long one. The next
meeting of parliament, and therefore the first chance to form a new
government, is October 30. However, in election night musings,
Gusenbauer said he thought the process would take about six weeks.
Schuessel thought it would take longer.


9. Austrian Federal President Heinz Fischer presumably will offer
the chance to form a coalition to the leader of the party with the
most votes -- that is, Alfred Gusenbauer. Gusenbauer said on
election night that he would start by seeking to form a SPO-OVP
Grand Coalition, with himself as Chancellor. Most observers think
the OVP would want the Foreign Ministry. That is all that is
currently clear (or at least, less murky). The SPO has already laid
down a marker: party manager Norbert Darabos said on election
night, referring to the OVP, "when you lose seven or eight percent,
you have to be reasonable."


10. It is not at all clear what happens to Chancellor Schuessel.
Having fallen to a figure -- 34 percent -- that would probably have
gotten Gusenbauer fired, and having started with much higher
expectations than Gusenbauer did, Schuessel is already facing
questions as to whether he will retain his position as OVP party
leader. In the immediate aftermath of the election, leading OVP
figures such as governors Erwin Proell (Lower Austria) and Herwig
van Staa (Tirol) could only say that they "hoped (Schuessel) would
be able" to remain party leader. For his part, Schuessel would not
commit himself on election night, saying only that he would "sleep
on it." To have to return to his pre-2000 job as Foreign Minister
under an SPO Chancellor would indeed be a bitter pill for Schuessel
to swallow. OVP parliamentary caucus leader Wilhelm Molterer has
long been the subject of speculation as a party leader who could
pick up the pieces if Schuessel had to leave the scene, and the job
could now fall to him.


11. Conceivably, Schuessel may not even get the choice. The
counting of an estimated 242,000 absentee ballots will take place
over the coming week. This number is large enough that it could
possibly pull the BZO below the four percent mark, thereby throwing
their eight seats back for redistribution among the other parties.
In that case, it might be numerically possible for the SPO to form a
coalition with the Greens -- clearly the preference of both those
parties. However, Gusenbauer has expressed doubt at the wisdom of
working with such a razor-thin majority.


12. There is, of course, another possibility, although an
improbable one: A right-wing OVP-FPO-BZO coalition led by
Schuessel. Schuessel, however, declared on election eve that he
would not form a coalition with the anti-EU, xenophobic FPO. What
is more, the FPO and the BZO have all the baggage of a bad divorce.
Nevertheless, this coalition would be mathematically possible if the
OVP were able to deny a parliamentary majority to any government the
SPO could form. The OVP would also have to convince the two smaller
parties to get back into bed together. It is hard to see anyone in
the OVP but Schuessel as having the political skills to bring this
about, and Schuessel is now dealing from a position of weakness.

--------------
So What Happened?
--------------


13. The shocker in the election news was the OVP's slide. The
other parties, including the SPO, did more or less as forecast.
There was no radical turn to the protest parties. Instead, the drop
in OVP support showed up as marginal gains for the smaller parties.


14. No one in Austria is yet in a position to analyze seriously the
OVP's failure to maintain its pre-election position. Speculation
abounds, of course, tending to support the position of the person
making the analysis. The SPO described the results as a
confirmation of the SPO call for economic and social "fairness."

VIENNA 00002941 003.6 OF 003


They also see in the results a public acceptance of Gusenbauer.
However, one must remember that support for the SPO also declined
from the last election. In fact, the SPO experienced one of its
worst showings since the Second World War.


15. On election night, Schuessel cited low voter turnout as a key
factor. In 2006, the voter participation figure was ten points
lower than it was in 2002, and, at 74.2 percent of registered
voters, was the lowest since the formation of the Second Republic in

1955. Election-day polls indicated that this may have hurt the OVP
disproportionately. A large part of the number of those who stayed
at home consisted of OVP sympathizers. OVP leaders also blamed
negative SPO campaigning against Schuessel personally. These may
have been factors, but it was the OVP itself that banked on
Schuessel's personal popularity. The OVP campaign was virtually
devoid of issues, assuming that voters agreed that the country's
economic situation was solid and that the BAWAG scandal would
prevent a return of SPO support on the margins. The SPO's last
minute attempt to associate Schuessel with BAWAG's former executives
may have mobilized the SPO's core constituency.


16. What we may have seen is the basic personal conservatism of
Austrian voters. Essentially, the parties placed where one would
have expected them to end up if one had focused solely on party
membership and on historic (decades-long) performance. What this
election may therefore demonstrate is that Austria is not ready for
election campaigns that sell personalities and not parties.

McCaw