Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06VIENNA2097
2006-07-14 06:14:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Vienna
Cable title:  

AUSTRIAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS SET FOR OCTOBER 1

Tags:  PGOV AU 
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VZCZCXRO8699
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHVI #2097 1950614
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140614Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY VIENNA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4231
INFO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0087
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS VIENNA 002097 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS AND INR/EU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRIAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS SET FOR OCTOBER 1


This message is sensitive but unclassified.

UNCLAS VIENNA 002097

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS AND INR/EU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRIAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS SET FOR OCTOBER 1


This message is sensitive but unclassified.


1. (SBU) On July 12, following weeks of speculation
about the date of the national parliamentary elections
this fall, all four floor leaders of the parties
represented in parliament agreed on a motion calling for
elections on October 1. On July 14, the four parties
will adopt the motion in the last parliamentary plenary
before the summer recess. During the next two weeks,
the cabinet and parliamentary steering committee will
set deadlines and modalities for the October 1 election.

Polls show Schuessel comfortably ahead
--------------


2. (SBU) Several opinion polls taken over the past few
months show Chancellor Schuessel's People's Party (OVP)
clearly ahead (39-42 percent) of the rival Social
Democrats (35-36 percent),with the Greens a distant
third (11-13 percent). The Freedom Party/FPO comes in
fourth (5-8 percent). The FPO spin-off BZO (currently
in coalition with the OVP) and the anti-EU gadfly Hans-
Peter Martin are both slightly below the threshold of
four percent required to enter parliament.


3. (SBU) The OVP lead in opinion polls is partly a
result of Chancellor Schuessel's incumbency bonus,
recently burnished by his performance during Austria's
EU Presidency. Despite some notable weaknesses in his
cabinet team, Schuessel will also be able to bank on the
popularity of key ministers, primarily Finance Minster
Karl-Heinz Grasser, but also Foreign Minister Ursula
Plassnik and Agriculture Minister Erwin Proell.


4. (SBU) Schuessel's current advantage is primarily due,
however, to the crisis of the Social Democrats (SPO) in
connection with the scandal in the BAWAG bank, which the
SPO's trade union allies own. SPO Chairman Gusenbauer
has been trying, with little success so far, to distance
the party from the union's problems. Instead, he has
antagonized SPO faction affiliated with the labor
unions. In the long run, Gusenbauer's tack may help
reform the SPO by freeing it of its trade union legacy.
But it appears unlikely that the SPO will recover from
the BAWAG fallout in time for the election.


5. (SBU) Polls predict up to 13 percent for the Greens
(up from 9 percent in 2002) -- but the party has a track
record of coming up short of expectations on Election
Day. Under its grandfatherly leader, Alexander van der
Bellen, the party appears more unified than in previous
elections. However, with most of its leaders over 50,
it may be hard to continue to attract younger voters.
Observers believe the Green leadership, despite its
protestations to the contrary, is eager to join a
coalition with Schuessel's OVP, but this risks reviving
internal tensions between left-wingers and pragmatists.


6. (SBU) The Freedom Party appears set to win enough
votes to secure parliamentary seats. However, party
leader Heinz Christian Strache's strident anti-immigrant
rhetoric has prompted other parties to preclude any
coalition with the FPO. Joerg Haider's FPO spin-off,
the Alliance Future Austria (BZO),with its new lead
candidate Peter Westenthaler, may fail to reach the 4
percent necessary to enter parliament. Observers expect
maverick Hans-Peter Martin (whose EU-critical agenda
enjoys the full support of the country's all-important
tabloid "Kronenzeitung") to run. He would likely siphon
off protest votes from the SPO, BZO and FPO, but might
also fall short of the goal of entering parliament.

McCAW