RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SOMALIA: PROSPECTS FOR PEACE

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL SO UNSC KPKO XW
SUBJECT: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SOMALIA: PROSPECTS FOR PEACE


1. Summary: Recent developments in Somalia have improved the
prospect for peace, however the process remains vulnerable,
and the pressing humanitarian crisis demands immediate
international attention. The signing of the Aden
Declaration and subsequent convening of the Parliament are
important steps on the long road to peace. Many problems
remain however, including a violent political power struggle
and extremist activity in Mogadishu, a severe drought and
famine, and violent clashes over scarce water, land, and
grazing rights. Piracy continues to impede humanitarian
relief efforts, and the overall lack of security threatens to
derail the peace process. The international community is
needed to address security concerns, enforce the arms
embargo, combat piracy, and continue humanitarian relief
efforts as 1.7 million people are facing starvation. End
Summary.


2. In his March 10 briefing to the United Nations Security
Council, Special Representative of the Secretary-General
(SRSG) Francois Fall noted a number of positive developments
that improved the prospect for peace and reconciliation in
Somalia. On January 5, President Abdullahi Yusef Ahmed and
Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden signed the Aden
Declaration, agreeing to end their differences, abide by the
Transitional Federal Charter, and hold a meeting of the
Transitional Federal Parliament, for whose convening in
Baidoa an official announcement was made on January 30. The
President, the Speaker, and Prime Minister Gedi issued a
Memorandum of Understanding in which they agreed to work
together to implement the Aden Declaration.


3. The opening of the session of Parliament took place on
February 26, 2006, attended by 211 of the 275 Members. SRSG
Fall acknowledged a great deal of support from the
international community. At the session, President Yusef
outlined an agenda which included issues related to national
security and confidence building; support for international
agreements and treaties, and internal revenue generation. At
the request of the President, the members adjourned to
conduct informal consultations, and when Parliament
reconvened on March 6th, 230 members were in attendance.
Fall opined that the opening session had the potential to put
Somalia,s political process on track; however collective
efforts of the international community were needed to address
the priority issues facing the country -- national security,
reconciliation, revenue collection, and the establishment of
basic social services for the population.

Mogadishu


4. SRSG Fall reported that increased tensions in Mogadishu
were the most serious security concern presently facing
Somalia. Groups of faction leaders and prominent businessmen
formed the &Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and
Counter-Terrorism8 with the stated goal of restoring peace
and fighting international terrorism by eliminating those
they considered &foreign terrorists and their supporters.8
Between February 18th and 20th, confrontations between this
&Alliance8 and the Islamic Shariah Court militias resulted
in heavy loss of life, including civilians. According to
Fall, there has been an increase in extremist activity,
including assassinations, and the power struggle in Mogadishu
has had serious political and security implications. In
addition to clan and sub-clan disputes, Fall noted there
remained drought-related clashes over scarce water, land, and
grazing rights.

Other Issues:


5. SRSG Fall highlighted the concern over Somali piracy,
with attacks inhibiting international relief efforts, and
noting that over 50 vessels were attacked in 2005.
Trafficking in persons remains an issue, as well as
abandonments and drownings at sea. The current drought in
the region is the most serious in a decade, according to
Fall, with 1.7 million Somalis in need of urgent humanitarian
assistance, especially in Southern Somalia where malnutrition
rates exceed 20 percent. The Donor community has ensured
funding for 66 percent of this need, but there remains an
estimated shortfall of 20,000 metric tons of food, at a
projected cost of $15 million USD.


6. Fall concluded by noting that the Transitional Federal
Institutions (TFIs) must find ways to address these issues
within the framework of a national security and stability
plan (NSSP),and a national Demobilization, Disarmament, and
Rehabilitation (DDR) plan. The Inter Governmental Agency on
Development (IGAD) is scheduled to meet on March 17 - 18,
followed by a summit in support of the peace process in
Nairobi on March 20. The purpose of these meetings is to
review the situation in Somalia, and recommend concrete
measures to support the political process.

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Intervention:


7. At the conclusion of Fall,s presentation, Qatari
Ambassador Al-Nasser offered a brief intervention in his
capacity as the new Chair of the Somalia Sanctions Committee
on the report of the Monitoring Group of Somalia. The
Group,s report noted that despite the embargo, violations
and the resulting militarization of Somalia continue, largely
due to three groups: the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG); the Mogadishu-based opposition groups; and the
militant fundamentalists. There is increasing evidence
Member States are involved in violations of the arms embargo
as well: Yemen has admitted involvement in arms shipments to
Somalia, while Ethiopia has denied involvement despite
increasing evidence to the contrary. In reference to the AU
Summit in January, the Group noted that the AU had adopted a
resolution calling for the Security Council to consider a
waiver of the arms embargo to allow for the deployment of an
AU peace support mission. The Group opined that an exemption
to the AU mission would cause further hostility and undermine
ongoing peace efforts.


8. Of continuing concern to the Group are the ongoing acts
of piracy. The Chair mentioned Committee members, questions
about the involvement of a U.S.-based company (TopCat) in
combating this problem, and that the U.S. government was
looking into the matter and did not have any affiliation with
the company. The Qatari PermRep further noted the piracy
was occurring in international waters, and was the
responsibility of the International Maritime Organizations
(IMO). The 24th session of the IMO Assembly had adopted a
resolution in January on &piracy and armed robbery against
ships in waters off the coast of Somalia8 which had been
submitted to the UN for consideration.

Member Comments of Note:


9. Members of the Council commented on the SRSG briefing,
raising specific issues of concern. All Members supported a
PRST, with the only criticism from some being that the draft
was not strong enough, and did not go far enough. The
Council also universally endorsed the urgent need for an
NSSP.


10. Most Members, as well as the SRSG, agreed the lack of
security was the overriding concern and the most pressing
issue in Somalia. Ambassador Mahiga of Tanzania noted its
negative effect on the &fragile human situation.8 In his
view, the international community was not moving fast enough,
and the Council should demand concrete recommendations in the
next Secretary General,s Report -- a view endorsed by
Ambassador de Rivero of Peru. Greek Ambassador Vassilakis,
cautiously optimistic in regard to the Aden Declaration and
subsequent meeting of Parliament, noted the need to address
security concerns, enforcement of the arms embargo, piracy,
and the ongoing problems in Mogadishu France and the UK
both voiced their concern over the tenuous security situation
noting the looming &specter of warlords.8 Specific trouble
spots were highlighted ) most notably Mogadishu, where
Ambassador Apenteng of Ghana addressed the increase in
terrorism, as well as the increase in extremism, both there
and in lower Juba. Ambassador Al-Nasser noted that
conditions in Somalia provided &fertile ground for
terrorism8 ) a view shared by the Slovakian PermRep.

Political Progress/NSSP


11. Ambassador Al-Nasser noted his country was
&disheartened8 at the deteriorating situation in a sister
Arab state, and by the relative neglect of the international
community.
The Danish Representative noted that it was difficult to be
optimistic about the prospects for peace given the failure of
14 prior peace initiatives. He welcomed AU and IGAD
initiatives, which he stated must be coordinated with TFI,s.
U.K. Representative Johnston agreed that the establishment
of an NSSP was critical so the containment of the militias
can be addressed. Russian Representative Dolgov spoke in
support of the need to insure the inclusive nature of the
political process. Argentinean Representative Mayoral
acknowledged the Somalis had taken an important first step
towards peace, but stated that there must be an NSSP and
improvement of the human situation.

IGAD/AU Peace support Operations: Waiver of the Arms Embargo


12. Council Members were divided on the issue of a waiver of
the arms embargo for the AU. While many, including the SRSG
and Somalia Monitoring Group were opposed, Ambassador Ikouebe
of Congo voiced his hope that the AU would have greater
involvement, and noted specific support for a waiver. Ghana

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and Japan were willing to consider a waiver, but only after
an NSSP was in place. The Russian PermRep went further,
stating a waiver of the arms embargo for the AU had already
been discussed, and that it would be considered in the
Security Council only when the Council received a detailed
plan from the AU and IGAD ) a plan worked out with the
TFI,s, and in conjunction with an NSSP. Tanzanian PermRep
Mahiga was willing to consider a waiver &with due
safeguards; 8 stating that the AU and IGAD would be able to
provide a detailed peace plan &in due course.8

Humanitarian Conditions


13. All were in agreement that the deteriorating
humanitarian conditions needed to be addressed by the
international community, with the Chinese appealing to Somali
leaders to improve the security situation, and permit
desperately needed relief efforts access. In this context
the ongoing problem of piracy was raised, and its significant
impact on humanitarian relief efforts. The Japanese
Ambassador emphasized that safety and security were mandatory
for providers of assistance. Ambassador Apenteng of Ghana
argued that more attention should be paid to the drought
situation, while the Peruvian PermRep challenged the Security
Council to ensure the situation of drought and famine did not
deteriorate further. He suggested that Under Secretary
General for Humanitarian Affairs Jan Egeland brief the
Council on how to get humanitarian aid into the country, and
noted that although he supported it, the PRST was not enough.
Ambassador Mayoral of Argentina stated that the Somali
government must address the immediate needs of the people,
voicing concern over the drought, and that 1.7 million people
are facing starvation.

Conclusion:


14. In response to Member comments, SRSG Fall noted that in
his view, all issues raised by Council Members came down to
security, and restoring State authority throughout the
country. Once established, all other issues could be
resolved. Necessary reconciliation among faction leaders
must go down to the district level. He added that major
figures are now talking, and trust is gradually being
established. He acknowledged growing extremism is a problem
that initially kept some ministers away from Baidoa, &but
they are there now.8 Islamists still feel they are not
adequately represented, and continue to resort to violence.
A national police unit has been formed (trained in Uganda)
and a police academy established in Puntland. Still, there
remains a problem of access to those in greatest need. The
AU, IGAD and TFG must be encouraged by the international
community to move the process forward. Progress has been
made.
BOLTON