MNF-I RENEWAL: STATE OF PLAY IN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 002126

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/I, IO/UNP AND S/I

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC IZ PINS
SUBJECT: MNF-I RENEWAL: STATE OF PLAY IN NEW YORK

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN BOLTON, FOR REASONS 1.4 B/D


1. (C) Summary: Discussions regarding a renewal of UNSCR
1637, which authorizes the MNF-I and the International
Advisory and Monitoring Board (IAMB),are beginning in New
York. Informal soundings of P-5 members indicate they remain
willing to support a renewal resolution in response to a
specific Iraqi request for an extension of these authorities.
In a meeting with Amb Sanders November 3, Iraqi DPR Faisal
al-Estrabadi cited as authoritative Foreign Minister Zebari's
recent statements that the government of Iraq supports an
extension of the MNF-I mandate. He attributed the delay in
receiving an official Iraqi request to a desire by the
Council of Representatives to be involved in the decision, as
well as the ongoing US/UK dialogue with the GOI in Baghdad on
the modalities of control over Iraqi Security Forces. Noting
that in 2005 the Iraqi mission had circulated its letter of
request to members of the Security Council on October 31 and
that the renewal resolution passed November 11 last year, Amb
Sanders said we are already behind schedule and urged
Estrabadi to convey to Baghdad that additional delay in
submitting the request in New York could open the door to
mischief. She also recommended that Estrabadi advise the GOI
to delink the request to the Security Council for the MNF-I
extension from the negotiations in Baghdad on security
arrangements. Finally, Amb Sanders encouraged Estrabadi to
make clear to all Security Council delegations and NY
missions of coalition governments the support of the GOI for
renewal of the MNF-I mandate. End Summary.


2. (C) USUN has consulted with the mission of Iraq, the UK
mission in New York, and other Security Council delegations
about the prospects for renewal of UNSCR 1637, which
authorizes the MNF-I and the IAMB. To date, no delegation
has raised concerns about or objections to renewal, although
support for renewal will be predicated on an explicit Iraqi
request for an extension of the MNF-I and IAMB mandates. The
Russians have suggested to the Iraqi mission that they may
seek to introduce language on security for foreign missions
and the need for national reconciliation.


3. (C) Scheduling: In preparing a draft agenda for the
month of December, when it will hold the presidency of the
Security Council, the delegation of Qatar informed USUN that
it had tentatively scheduled the adoption of a UN Security
Council resolution renewing the mandate of MNF-I and IAMB on
December 7. USUN agreed in principle, but informed the
Qatari delegation that our timeline is tied to the receipt of
the letter of request from Baghdad.


4. (C) Informal Council views: Poloff informally polled
several members of the Security Council during the last week
of October to seek their views on the upcoming renewal. The
French, Russian and Chinese delegations each confirmed there
had been no change in their previously stated position: they
did not intend to "be difficult" and would likely support a
technical rollover to the MNF-I and IAMB mandates, provided
that the government of Iraq specifically requested their
extension. Additional polling of several non-permanent
members of the Security Council (Denmark, Japan, Argentina)
revealed the same attitude: there are no current
expectations that renewal will be controversial. USUN also
compared notes with the UK mission in New York. The UK
mission shared its assessment: currently, there are no
indications that any delegation will object to renewal of the
MNF-I/IAMB mandates. One UK expert speculated that several
delegations may propose language on the political process,
including language on the issues of reconciliation and human
rights, but assessed there would be no challenge to the
resolution's extension of authorities. A second British
expert reported that, overall, "London is not worried."


5. (C) Iraqi Mission views: Amb Bolton spoke with Iraqi
Deputy PermRep Faisal al-Estrabadi on October 30, and queried
him regarding MNF-I renewal discussions in Baghdad.
Estrabadi said progress was being held up by
"intragovernmental disputes." Amb Bolton asked that
Estrabadi convey to Baghdad the importance of a timely letter

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from Iraq to the Security Council formally requesting an
extension of the MNF-I/IAMB mandates. Amb Sanders reinforced
this message November 3 during a meeting with Estrabadi.
Noting that the Iraqi mission circulated last year,s letter
of request on October 31, Amb Sanders warned that significant
delay might lead to difficulty in negotiating the renewal
resolution and invite troublemaking. Estrabadi attributed
the delay in receiving the official request to
"intra-governmental disputes," and explained that the Council
of Representatives may seek a role in the decision. He also
referred to talks in Baghdad on security issues. In
response, Amb Sanders recommended that he advise the GOI to
de-link the request to the Security Council to renew the
MNF-I/IAMB mandates from the current discussions in Baghdad
between Iraq and the US/UK on the disposition of forces.
Estrabadi agreed and said he would raise these points,
formally and informally, with Baghdad. He also responded
positively to her suggestion that the Iraqi mission begin
reaching out to all fifteen members of the Security Council
and to missions of coalition governments in order to clearly
convey Iraqi support for an extension of the mandates.


6. (C) Russian Proposals: Estrabadi told Amb Sanders that he
had spoken recently with the Russians, French, and Chinese
and each of these delegations had said they are likely to
support renewal. Estrabadi recalled that when the Russian
and Iraqi delegations met at the Foreign Minister level
during the General Debate that the Russians said they may
seek language on the protection of diplomatic missions in
Iraq. Estrabadi had understood the Russians to mean that the
Russians wanted language about GOI responsibility for
diplomatic missions. Amb Sanders made clear that the USG
would be unwilling to accept language that suggested the
MNF-I had responsibility for the security of diplomatic
missions. (Note: Russia has previously sought language
demanding foreign forces accept responsibility for the
protection of diplomatic missions in other negotiations on
Security Council text related to Iraq and Afghanistan and
most recently in a generic General Assembly resolution on
foreign missions. End note.) Estrabadi then described a
recent meeting with Russian DPR Dolgov, who suggested that
Russia might propose language on the need for national
reconciliation. Estrabadi said he pushed back with Dolgov,
noting that Lavrov had not raised this subject with Zebari.
Estrabadi opined that no one opposed national reconciliation,
and admitted that he had feared Russia or France would revive
last year's interest in language on a timeline for withdrawal.


7. (C) Comment: Barring unforeseen developments or further
significant delay in receiving the letter from Baghdad, USUN
judges that, at this moment, there are no outstanding
barriers to securing adoption of a resolution renewing
MNF-I/IAMB mandates. However, despite the indications of
support from the P-5, Qatar, the Europeans, Japan, and the
African members who have no direct stake in the matter, we
are already behind last year,s schedule, a concern in and of
itself. Until the Iraqi request for renewal is received, we
are not in a position to move this forward in New York. End
comment.
BOLTON