SEEKING SUPPORT FOR U.S. CANDIDATE FOR THE

UNCLAS USUN NEW YORK 002111

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: UNGA ODIP ILC
SUBJECT: SEEKING SUPPORT FOR U.S. CANDIDATE FOR THE
INTERNATIONAL LAW COMMISSION - STATUS REPORT

REF: A. STATE 137429

B. STATE 180503


1. ACTION REQUEST PARA 6.


2. ON NOVEMBER 16, THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY WILL HOLD ELECTIONS
TO FILL ALL 34 SEATS ON THE INTERNATIONAL LAW COMMISSION.
THE U.S. HAS NOMINATED FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT DEPUTY LEGAL
ADVISER MICHAEL MATHESON FOR ONE OF THE EIGHT VACANCIES IN
THE WESTERN EUROPEAN AND OTHERS GROUP (WEOG). THE ELEVEN
CANDIDATES FOR THE EIGHT SEATS INCLUDE SEVEN EU MEMBERS
(FRANCE, GERMANY, GREECE, ITALY, PORTUGAL, SWEDEN AND THE
UK),CANADIAN, SWISS (ILC HOST COUNTRY),TURKISH AND U.S.
NATIONALS. ALL HAVE BEEN ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING AT THE UN IN
RECENT MONTHS. TO BE ELECTED, A CANDIDATE MUST RECEIVE A
MAJORITY OF THE VOTES OF THOSE PRESENT AND VOTING
(ABSTENTIONS DON'T COUNT) AND PLACE AMONG THE TOP EIGHT IN A
GENERAL ASSEMBLY SECRET BALLOT.


3. THE U.S. LAUNCHED MATHESON'S CAMPAIGN IN DECEMBER 2005
WHEN IT PRESENTED HIS NOMINATION TO THE SECRETARY GENERAL AND
THE CHAIRMAN OF THE WEOG. AT THAT TIME, USUN ALSO SENT A
DIPLOMATIC NOTE TO ALL MISSIONS (EXCEPT THOSE ON NO CONTACT
LIST) REQUESTING SUPPORT FOR THE CANDIDACY. A FOLLOW-UP
REMINDER NOTE (AND CV) WAS SENT THIS WEEK. IN AUGUST, THE
DEPARTMENT SENT A DEMARCHE REQUEST TO ALL POSTS (REF.A) AND
RECENTLY SENT A FOLLOW-UP DEMARCHE REQUEST (REF.B). MATHESON
HAS BEEN IN NEW YORK TO MEET WITH DELEGATIONS AND USUN WILL
HOST A MEET-THE-CANDIDATE RECEPTION NEXT WEEK. AS THE
ELECTION APPROACHES, HIS PRESENCE IN NEW YORK TO CAMPAIGN
WILL BE A CRITICAL FACTOR.


4. IN VIEW OF THE U.S. POLICY OF NOT TRADING VOTES, OUR
STRATEGY FOR SEEKING SUPPORT IS TO MAKE SURE THAT EACH
DELEGATION RECEIVES A PERSONAL REQUEST FROM THE CANDIDATE OR
ONE OF USUN'S AMBASSADORS, SENIOR AREA ADVISERS OR OFFICERS.
WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE DEPARTMENT USUN OBTAINED COPIES OF
MATHESON'S CV AND TALKING POINTS IN ALL SIX OF THE UN'S
OFFICIAL LANGUAGES. THESE HAVE BEEN USED BY THE AREA
ADVISERS IN THEIR MEETINGS WITH AMBASSADORS FROM OTHER
MISSIONS. TO DATE, USUN HAS CONTACTED APPROXIMATELY 110
MISSIONS. POSTS HAVE CONTACTED SOME OF THESE AND AN
ADDITIONAL 24 DELEGATIONS WITH WHICH WE HAVE NOT YET MADE
CONTACT IN NEW YORK. AS A RESULT OF THESE MEETINGS WITH 134
DELEGATIONS, 70 HAVE INDICATED THAT THEY WILL SUPPORT THE
U.S. CANDIDATE. USUN HAS, HOWEVER, RECEIVED ONLY 20 WRITTEN
COMMITMENTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS USUALLY A FLURRY OF LATE
RESPONSES, THIS NUMBER IS LOW FOR A SECRET BALLOT WHERE
TRADITIONALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIPPAGE BETWEEN
COMMITMENTS AND VOTES RECEIVED. IF ALMOST ALL DELEGATIONS
VOTE (AS THEY DID IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS),WE WILL
NEED AT LEAST 97 VOTES TO MEET THE SIMPLE MAJORITY THRESHOLD.
THIS MEANS WE SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE
NUMBER OF CURRENT COMMITMENTS IN ORDER TO PLACE IN THE TOP
EIGHT IN THE WEOG. AT THE LAST ILC ELECTION, FIVE YEARS AGO,
CANDIDATES ELECTED FROM THE WEOG RECEIVED AROUND 153 VOTES
EACH. THE RANGE WAS 161-134.


5. THE RACE FOR THE WEOG SEATS IS TIGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT EU MEMBERS WILL SUPPORT THEIR PARTNERS' CANDIDATES
LEAVING ONLY ONE VOTE FOR AMONG THE OTHER FOUR CANDIDATES
(CANADA, SWITZERLAND, TURKEY, U.S.) WILL MAKE IT MORE
DIFFICULT FOR MATHESON TO GAIN THE SUPPORT OF OUR EUROPEAN
ALLIES.


6. ACTION REQUEST: IN THE REMAINING TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE
ELECTION, USUN PLANS TO ACCELERATE EFFORTS HERE TO OBTAIN
COMMITMENTS FOR THE U.S. CANDIDATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
REPORT RESULTS VIA LISTS TO IO/UNP AND URGE THAT DEPARTMENT
OFFICIALS EMPHASIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS ELECTION WHEN
MEETING WITH THEIR COUNTERPARTS. THE DEPARTMENT SHOULD ALSO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE RESULTS OF REFTEL DEMARCHES IN CAPITALS
AND REPEAT AS REQUIRED. WITH JUST TWO WEEKS REMAINING UNTIL
THE ELECTION, ACTION TO GATHER VOTES MUST BE A HIGH PRIORITY
FOR MATHESON TO BE ELECTED.
BOLTON