SYG SELECTION: SEPTEMBER 28 STRAW POLL RESULTS;

C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 001881

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2016
TAGS: PREL UNSC UN
SUBJECT: SYG SELECTION: SEPTEMBER 28 STRAW POLL RESULTS;
NEXT POLL - ON OCTOBER 2 - TO USE "COLORED BALLOTS"

REF: A. STATE 160541

B. USUN 1759

Classified By: Ambassador John R. Bolton, Permanent Representative, for
reasons 1.4 b,d.


1. (C) Summary. Ban Ki-Moon increased his lead over his
nearest competitors in the third Secretary-General straw
poll, though one delegation that had previously encouraged
Ban's candidacy slipped to the "no opinion" category. The
Security Council - in a contentious meeting the previous day
- agreed to conduct the straw poll on the 28th without
differentiating between permanent and elected members. As
part of that decision, based on strong arguments from
Ambassador Bolton and others, the Council agreed to conduct
another straw poll on Monday, October 2 with differentiated
ballots. Most observers believe the vote on the 28th serves
as a placeholder in advance of Monday's vote - when the
positions of the P5 will become clear. There has been one
immediate casualty of Thursday's vote, however, as Sri Lankan
candidate Dhanapala has withdrawn and will not be on Monday's
ballot. Of the two new entrants, Afghanistan's Ashraf Ghani
performed poorly, while Latvian President Vike-Freiberga
collected seven encouraging votes, putting her in third place
behind Ban and India's Shashi Tharoor (who saw his support
slip slightly). End Summary.


2. (C) The Security Council conducted its third straw poll on
candidates for Secretary-General on September 28. As per the
two previous ballots, Council members were asked to choose
whether to "encourage", "discourage", or offer "no opinion"
on the seven candidates officially nominated by a Member
State. The results:

-- FM Ban: 13 encourage; 1 discourage; 1 no opinion.
-- U/SYG Tharoor: 8 encourage; 3 discourage; 4 no opinion.
-- President Vike-Freiberga: 7 encourage; 6 discourage; 2 no
opinion.
-- DPM Surakiart: 5 encourage; 7 discourage; 3 no opinion.
-- Prince Zeid: 3 encourage; 6 discourage; 6 no opinion.
-- Ashraf Ghani: 3 encourage; 6 discourage; 6 no opinion.
-- Dhanapala: 3 encourage; 7 discourage; 5 no opinion.

P-5 Differences on the Way Forward
--------------


3. (C/NF) Prior to the vote, in a contentious meeting of the
Council in "informal informals" on September 27, Ambassador
Bolton argued it was time to differentiate between the votes
of permanent and non-permanent members. Use of "colored
ballots" would help keep the Council on track towards meeting
its target of making a formal recommendation to the General
Assembly no later than the first half of October and would
provide much needed transparency to the candidates remaining
in the race about their realistic prospects for success. The
majority of the Council, including China and Russia,
supported his argument. To much laughter, Russian PR Churkin
said that repeated ballots without differentiation reminded
him of a sign: "Trespassers will be shot. Survivors will be
shot again."


4. (C/NF) French PR de La Sabliere was not laughing, however,
and noted that he would be unable to agree on differentiated
ballots. UK DPR Pearce, who noted that her instructions came
directly from FS Beckett, joined him in this objection. De
La Sabliere claimed that the Council had only ever agreed to
give "two months" transition time to the new
Secretary-General and that the Council should give the new

SIPDIS
candidates in the race "the same chance" by conducting the
next straw poll on the same basis as the previous ballots.
Churkin took issue with de La Sabliere's reference to "two
months" of transition time, noting that the Council had never
before discussed such a timeframe, and had always talked
about reaching agreement in "late September or early
October." Ambassador Bolton noted that de La Sabliere
himself had argued earlier in the month (at the September 6
informal meeting) of the importance of conducting a
differentiated ballot "before the end of the month" in order
to give the process a "push" (ref b, para 5). De La Sabliere
fumed that he had said something else (but never elaborated).
After the meeting, the Russian expert told USUN that, in his
many meetings with de La Sabliere, he had never seen him so
obviously agitated.




5. (C/NF) Ambassador Bolton suggested a compromise position
that would have the Council conduct two straw polls - the
first without differentiation, the second with colored
ballots - in rapid succession. Council members agreed,
though the UK's Pearce had to leave the room to call London
before she could sign on. Following the ballot on the 28th,
the Council will conduct a straw poll with differentiated
ballots on Monday, October 2.

Results seen to solidify Ban's lead
--------------


6. (C) The results of the poll on the 28th are widely seen to
solidify Ban's lead, despite receiving one less "encouraging"
vote. The ballot that included the "discourage" vote for Ban
also discouraged Zeid, encouraged Tharoor and Vike-Freiberga,
and offered no opinion on the other three. The ballot that
offered "no opinion" on Ban also encouraged Tharoor and
Vike-Freiberga, discouraged Dhanapala, Ghani and Surakiart,
and offered no opinion on Zeid.


7. (C) Ban's closest competitors all lost ground. Tharoor
received two less encouraging votes; Surakiart lost four. Of
the new entrants, only Latvian President Vike-Freiberga did
well, vaulting past Surakiart into third place with seven
encouraging votes. Her vote tally seemed to reflect the
continuing split in the Council over the "principle" of
regional rotation, with a small number of "no opinion" votes
cast despite her recent entry into the race.


8. (U) Following the vote, the first candidate dropped out of
the race on the 29th. Sri Lanka notified the Council that it
was withdrawing Dhanapala's candidacy in order "to facilitate
the election of the emerging most favoured candidate."

Comment
--------------


9. (C/NF) The poll on the 28th brought few surprises, with
most observers waiting for the differentiated vote on Monday
to signal the Council's likely course. Within the Council,
there is plenty of speculation as to reasoning behind the
French shift on colored ballots, widely seen as signaling
their discomfort with the prospect of closing the deal with
Ban quickly. One contact at the French mission told USUN
that Paris was "very uneasy" about the way the process has
played out, believing that the race "never really began" and
is now basically over. In the French view, barring a
surprise on Monday, it is unlikely that new "more serious"
candidates will enter the race. End Comment.
BOLTON