SERBIAN PRESIDENT TADIC LOOKS TO OSCE TO HELP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USOSCE 000113

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR FOR SCE AND RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR YI
SUBJECT: SERBIAN PRESIDENT TADIC LOOKS TO OSCE TO HELP
ENSURE FREE AND FAIR REFERENDUM IN MONTENEGRO


Classified By: Classified by Political Counselor Bruce Connuck for Reas
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a March 10 meeting in Vienna with
USOSCE Ambassador Finley, Serbian President Boris Tadic
expressed hope that the OSCE and ODIHR will play a
prominent role in monitoring the May 21 independence
referendum in Montenegro. Tadic said that a majority of
Serbs favor cooperating with ICTY and predicted that Serbia
will deliver Ratko Mladic within thirty days to The Hague.
Tadic warned that independence for Kosovo could result in
the emergence of a Radical government in Belgrade, and
derail stability and democracy in the western Balkans and
Serbia's path to Euro-Atlantic integration.

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Serbia Will Deliver Mladic by April 10
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2. (C) Tadic used the occasion of a March 9-10 bilateral
visit to Austria to request a meeting with Ambassador
Finley, who he had met previously and most recently in
Washington shortly following his inauguration as president
in July 2004. Tadic began the meeting by predicting that
Serbia will deliver ICTY-indicted war criminal Ratko Mladic
to The Hague within thirty days. While he could not say
with certainty if Mladic is hiding in Serbia or outside its
borders, Tadic is encouraging collaboration between the
armed forces and the police to apprehend him. In any case,
Tadic said, Mladic's apprehension is now merely a
"technical problem," as sixty percent of the Serbian public
currently favors cooperation with ICTY. He added that
seventy percent favor EU membership, sixty percent support
membership in NATO's Partnership-for-Peace, while forty
percent even favor outright membership in NATO. These
figures in support of Euro-Atlantic integration are
remarkable, Tadic argued, given the fact that NATO bombs
were falling on Serbia only six years ago.

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ODIHR Needed to Keep Montenegro Government Honest
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3. (C) Switching to Montenegro, Tadic appealed for the
OSCE and its Office of Democratic Institutions and Human
Rights (ODIHR) to play a significant role in ensuring that
Montenegro's independence referendum is conducted in a free
and fair fashion. ODIHR monitors need to deploy at once,
Tadic continued, to monitor the run-up to the actual vote
on May 21. Tadic's Senior Advisor, Vuk Jeremic, reported
rumors that the Montenegrin government is buying voter
identification cards from opposition supporters at the rate
of 500 euro per voter, to keep opposition voter turnout
low. ODIHR should not be hesitant to speak out on this and
any other abuses it might uncover. In the event of a close
vote, Tadic stressed that there should be no "rounding up"
of numbers to meet the 55 percent super-majority threshold
necessary for the referendum to pass.


4. (SBU) Ambassador Finley assured Tadic that the OSCE and
ODIHR have already set the ball in motion to send a robust
observation mission to monitor the referendum. USOSCE
poloff added that ODIHR expects to deploy twenty long-term
observers by the end of March, and at least 200 short-term
observers to monitor the actual referendum on May 21.

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Independence for Kosovo Threatens Balkan Stability
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5. (C) Turning to Kosovo, Tadic urged the U.S. and its
Contact Group partners to look at the issue of its future
status from the "larger perspective." Independence for
Kosovo, Tadic argued, can only have serious negative
consequences for Serbia as well as Kosovo's minority
Serbian population, which is "fighting for survival."
Independence for Kosovo, Tadic implied, would bring with it
a day of reckoning, in which Serbian voters would turn
their backs on the country's more moderate parties in favor
of the Radicals, who were not interested in continuing down
the path towards European integration. Tadic even implied
that he might share the fate of President Djindjic (whom he
referred to as "my older brother,") who was assassinated in

2003. Senior Advisor Jeremic appealed for U.S. political
support, claiming that the EU is suffering from
"enlargement fatigue, and cannot offer us anything."
Ambassador Finley ended the meeting by advising Tadic to
engage constructively in the future status talks and
assuring him that the United States will continue to

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support moderate voices such as his.

CONNUCK