Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ULAANBAATAR803
2006-10-27 08:53:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Cable title:  

Government Wins Parliamentary Confidence Vote, But Cracks

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR MG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0007
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUM #0803/01 3000853
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 270853Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY ULAANBAATAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0504
INFO RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2280
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 2516
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5292
UNCLAS ULAANBAATAR 000803 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MG
SUBJECT: Government Wins Parliamentary Confidence Vote, But Cracks
Appear


Sensitive But Unclassified -- Not for Internet Distribution.

UNCLAS ULAANBAATAR 000803

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MG
SUBJECT: Government Wins Parliamentary Confidence Vote, But Cracks
Appear


Sensitive But Unclassified -- Not for Internet Distribution.


1. (SBU) Summary: By a 46-22 vote, on October 26 the government
easily turned defeated a no confidence motion pushed by the
opposition Democratic Party. However, the opposition succeeded in
its real aim: winning two days of great publicity for its criticisms
of the government. A bonus for the opposition was the spectacle of
dissension within the MPRP, including closing remarks by Speaker
Nyamdorj which were remarkably critical of the government his party
leads. The debate will make it even harder for the Enkhbold
government to improve on dismal public approval ratings. Three
minor party ministers drew the most fire in Parliament -- including
from the Speaker -- doing nothing to end speculation the Prime
Minister may jettison them down the road. End summary.

Government Wins Confidence Vote
--------------


2. (SBU) On October 26, the government easily turned aside a no
confidence motion put forward by the opposition Democratic Party.
Under the constitution, the parliament must debate a no confidence
motion which is put forward by at least one quarter of MPs, or at
least 19 out of the 76 MPs. In July, the opposition Democratic
Party announced plans to have its 24 MPs table a no confidence
motion soon after the Fall session of parliament began in October.
The government margin of 46-22 in the October 26 vote was in line
with its expected support in State Great Hural. Just over half of
MPs, are from the MPRP, while another nine belong to four smaller
parties that have joined in the MPRP-led "Government of National
Unity."

But the 'Reality Show' Was the Whole Point
--------------


3. (SBU) The two full days of parliamentary debate on the no
confidence motion was broadcast live on television and radio. The
anecdotal evidence is that large numbers of Mongolians tuned in to
the parliamentary debate, as they did in January when the MPRP
brought down the previous coalition government. While defeat in the
actual vote was always certain, this highly-publicized 'reality
show' -- as many MPs termed the session -- was the whole purpose of
the exercise by the opposition party. For two days, the Democratic
Party had the public eye on their allegations of corruption and

mismanagement against the government. On October 27, a Democratic
Party MP told emboffs and visiting EAP/CM desk officer that the
result had exceeded his party's hopes.

Cracks Appear
--------------


4. (SBU) One reason for this verdict was the spectacle of
dissension within the MPRP during the debate (although all MPRP MPs
duly raised their hands in support of the government). The most
obvious critic was Speaker Nyamdorj, who at one point contradicted
the Prime Minister to agree with the opposition statement that the
new government had failed to submit its plan of work, as required by
the Constitution. Nyamdorj saved his harshest words for a
remarkable closing speech just after the vote. Nyamdorj said he
regretted the fact that he had observed no sign during the debate
the government could listen and learn from criticism. It was no
secret, the Speaker said, that the Cabinet lacks discipline, with

SIPDIS
ministers publicly disagreeing with government positions. Moreover,
there were examples of ministers using their position to benefit
their private interests. The government, he said, had an obligation
to draw conclusions about the members of the Cabinet and to end this
chaotic situation. Nyamdorj then made clear that his comments were
most focused on three minor party Cabinet ministers: Health
Minister Gundalai; Minister for Industry and Trade Jargalsaikhan;
and Minister for Energy and Fuels Erdenebat.


5. (SBU) Before debate began on October 26, President Enkhbayar
(the MPRP leader and Speaker until he took his new office in June
2005) also suggested in his remarks that there might be a need for
some ministers to be held to account. During the debate, Gundalai
and Jargalsaikhan in particular had had to mount a defense not just
against Democratic Party complaints, but also against the comments
of MPRP MPs. MPRP MP Gandi, who was Health Minister in the previous
government, launched a pointed criticism of Gundalai. MPRP MP Bud
commented, "Calling for the dismissal of the government is a
political ploy. However, there are things to note. It is true that
ministries have been made into private companies."

Debate Will Add to Government's Problems
--------------


6. (SBU) In a few days, Mongolia's one reliable political poll will
be published. The parliamentary debate will add to recent events
which will make it difficult for the MPRP-led government to much
improve on the dismal 25% approval rating it held in April; while

the MPRP denounced that poll as slanted, MPRP factions openly
lamented the fact that the party's internal polls showed the same
result. The Democratic Party used to good advantage in the
parliamentary debate the September conviction on corruption charges
of former Customs chief Kh. Baatar, who was arrested under
Democratic Party PM Elbegdorj's government in October 2005.
Baatar's defense in court was that he had kept no money for himself,
but had given all the money to the MPRP as donations. An MPRP
official (to the obvious after-the-fact consternation of the Prime
Minister) confirmed the party had received donations from Baatar.
The prosecutor in the case also told the court that Baatar had
corruptly given an apartment to O. Enkhtuvshin, a Cabinet member
from the MPRP. While those allegations have added to public concern
about the Enkhbold government, the MPRP can take comfort in most
Mongolians' cynical belief the Democrats are little better on
corruption.

On to the Budget -- and a Reshuffle?
--------------


7. (SBU) Parliament now moves on to the budget, which it should
adopt by December 1. With the general election only twenty months
away, both government and opposition appear determined to win
popularity by throwing money at the electorate. During the no
confidence vote debate, Prime Minister Enkhbold highlighted as major
achievements for his government sharp increases in civil service
salaries and social welfare benefits. The Democrats responded that
they had suggested these increases, and would have given more if in
office. Poor approval ratings may lead the government to add to the
large increases for next year it has already announced.


8. (SBU) There has also been speculation that the government may
seek to boost its popularity by jettisoning the problematic Gundalai
and Jargalsaikhan, perhaps soon after the budget has passed. The
fire the two ministers (and sole MPs for their party) drew during
the no confidence vote will add to this speculation, particularly
since so many in the MPRP made it clear they also disapproved of the
ministers. After a reshuffle, the challenge for PM Enkhbold would
be to explain why he should not be held responsible for these
ministers' shortcomings. If a reshuffle does happen, the challenge
for the Democrats will be for their MPs to resist any offer by
Enkhbold to join in a revamped government. In January, two thirds
of the Democratic Party MPs publicly defied party orders to ask to
join in Enkhbold's new government. However, the MPs spoke up so
late they were rebuffed in the MPRP's rush to get a new government
in place before Mongolian New Years. If Enkhbold succeeded in
getting Democratic MPs to join a revamped government, the
ill-disciplined opposition party would be further split -- but, with
the general election looming ever larger, and Enkhbold's government
scoring poorly with voters, the attraction of Cabinet posts may have
diminished since January.

Minton