DALAI LAMA TO VISIT MONGOLIA AUGUST 21-28

C O N F I D E N T I A L ULAANBAATAR 000638

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM SOCI MG CH JA
SUBJECT: DALAI LAMA TO VISIT MONGOLIA AUGUST 21-28

REF: A. STATE 134383

B. ULAANBAATAR 608

C. ULAANBAATAR 385

D. 2002 ULAANBAATAR 818

Classified By: Economic/Political Chief Patrick J. Freeman, for reasons
1.4(B) and (D)


1. (C) The Dalai Lama will visit Mongolia August 21-28, at
the invitation of the head lama of Gandan Monastery, the
leading Tibetan Buddhist monastery in the country. He will
transit Japan in both directions, as he did during his last
visit in 2002. President Enkhbayar, in his capacity as the
chairman of the Mongolian Buddhist Association, will return
to Ulaanbaatar from leave on August 23 to meet with him. The
Ambassador of India will host a small reception on August 22,
which the Ambassador will attend. We have been told that the
PRC has protested the visit: late last week, the PRC Vice
Foreign Minister called in the Mongolian ambassador to China
and the PRC Charge in Ulaanbaatar (the ambassador is out of
the country until 8/25 on pre-planned leave) has called on
Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials and requested to speak
with the President. (Note: The President, who is
vacationing in a remote northern province, is not taking any
calls. End Note.)


2. (C) Ambassador met with Foreign Minister Enkhbold on
August 17 to deliver the paper conveyed in ref a, which
responded to the Foreign Minister's request for U.S.
perspectives on the likely Chinese reaction to a Dalai Lama
visit (ref b). FM Enkhbold expressed appreciation for the
report. Enkhbold indicated that the decision to issue a visa
for the visit was not an easy one, and he was visibly worried
over what the Chinese reaction might be. He noted that in
2002, the Chinese, citing technical difficulties, had
suspended all railroad freight trains (but not pasenger
trains) at the Mongolian border for nearly 30 hours, impeding
food and other imports and causing serious economic loss to
Mongolia (ref d). Enkhbold noted that in a March 2006 speech
(on the anniversary of the Tibetan uprising),the Dalai Lama
had made very clear that he sought greater self-rule and
autonomy -- not independence -- for Tibet. Enkhbold said he
hoped that Beijing would moderate its reaction to the visit,
in light of the Dalai Lama's stated position.


3. (C) The Foreign Minister commented that, in view of an
expected negative Chinese reaction, he was still struggling
with how to explain the decision to all Mongolian
constituencies, such as business interests who may be
negatively affected. He said that the decision is not even
without controversy in Mongolian Buddhist circles, since the
Bogd Gegen (Rinpoche),not the Dalai Lama, is regarded by
many Mongolians to be the head of Mongolian Buddhism.


4. (C) Enkhbold asked how the U.S. would respond in the
event of Chinese pressure on Mongolia, such as a repetition
of the train service interuption in 2002. Ambassador
responded that the U.S. likely would reiterate publicly our
belief that the Dalai Lama is an internationally recognized
religious leader who should be allowed freedom to travel
where he wished, including Mongolia where the majority of the
population is Tibetan Buddhist. Such statements would be
unlikely to deter any Chinese pressure -- and any effort at
direct U.S. intervention with Chinese leaders would probably
worsen matters, not help them.


5. (C) COMMENT: Thus far, China's reaction has been limited
to official protests in an attempt to deter a visit
altogether. They may well escalate the reaction and seek to
punish Mongolia, at they did in 2002. One could make an
argument that in 2006 China has more vested interests --
particularly economic -- in maintaining good neighborly
relations with Mongolia. Several months after the last visit
of the Dalai Lama in November 2002, relations had recovered
sufficiently for Hu Jintao to visit Ulaanbaatar, which may be
a history that comforts Mongolian leaders as they await
China's response.
SLUTZ