ISLAMISTS IN TUNISIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000670

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG - LAWRENCE AND NEA/PI
PARIS AND LONDON FOR NEA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2016
TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV TS
SUBJECT: ISLAMISTS IN TUNISIA

REF: A. TUNIS 425


B. TUNIS 224

Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM HUDSON FOR REASONS 1.4 b & d


1. (C) SUMMARY: During a recent roundtable with Tunisian
intellectuals and civil society activists, participants
discussed the challenges and opportunities for Islamists in
Tunisia. (NOTE: In this discussion, Islamists were defined
as Islamic political activists. END NOTE.) While noting that
direct communications with Islamists, including recently
released leaders of the banned Islamic party an-Nahdha, might
be useful, the government considers engaging these groups to
be "crossing a red line." Due to the imprisonment and exile
of many former an-Nahdha officials, a new generation of
Islamists has developed in Tunisia. However, Islamists, like
the other opposition and independent civil society groups,
remain poorly organized due to government restrictions on
speech and association. In order to combat these
limitations, Islamists have joined an unlikely, and probably
temporary, alliance with leftists to counter the GOT. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) According to some secular Tunisians, especially
feminists, even those who now claim to be moderate Islamists
would force women to wear the veil, allow polygamy and
otherwise reverse many Tunisian social achievements of the
past fifty years. Given this view, post organized a
roundtable discussion on March 8 to discuss: Are Islamists is
a real threat to Tunisia's historically secular government?
Several prominent civil society activists and intellectuals
participated:

- Saida Akremi, lawyer and General Secretary for the
Tunisia-based International Association for the Support of
Political Prisoners (AISPP)
- Lotfi Hajji, journalist and member of the 18 October
Committee (18OC, Ref B)
- Salaheddine Jourchi, journalist and First Vice President of
the Tunisian Human Rights League (LTDH)
- Hamadi Redissi, Professor of Political Science, University
of Tunis

The discussion was wide-ranging, but focused on the need for
greater democracy in Tunisia and the relative strength of
Islamists in the political system.


3. (C) According to Akremi, the only way to truly know what
Islamists want is to speak directly with them. However, the
GOT would consider any foreign or local outreach to former
an-Nahdha leaders to be "crossing a red line." The
"conditional freedom" of those recently released (Ref A),
such as former al-Fejr editor Hamadi Jebali, could be
restricted at any time if they are believed to be
overstepping their boundaries. However, Hajji noted that
this older generation of an-Nahdha leaders, including exiled
leader Rachid Ghannouchi, no longer represents the true
future of Islamists in Tunisia. As so many an-Nahdha members
were imprisoned, live in exile, or denounced the group in the
early nineties, a new generation of educated and thoughtful
Islamists has developed in Tunisia. These individuals were
an-Nahdha supporters as university students and are more
politically savvy than the older generation, but politically
inactive given the GOT's complete rejection of a political
role for Islamists.


4. (C) Contrasting the relative freedom of the early 1980s
under Bourguiba, when an-Nahdha's newspaper al-Fejr and other
media enjoyed some degree of freedom, Akremi said Ben Ali's
complete control over information has prevented any public
debate on what Islamists in Tunisia hope to achieve - and
what threat they represent to the secular system. The group
lamented the absence of public debate on even the most minor
domestic issues and said that, without open discussion, it
was difficult to know what platform Islamists would present
in a democratic system. While Jebali recently said, in an
interview with Hajji for aljazeera.net, that an-Nahdha would
not call for a return to polygamy, it is unclear for whom he
is speaking - the defunct party of London-based Ghannouchi or
an-Nahdha sympathizers in Tunisia today. Jourchi opined that
an-Nahdha's medium-term focus is likely the release of their
members from prison (and Jebali has said this openly in
interviews). Once they are all released - and Akremi
estimates there are about two hundred still imprisoned - the
group would refocus its efforts on political activism.


5. (C) Despite the fears of secular Tunisians, the group felt
strongly that Islamists are no better organized today than
other opposition groups. This weakness has led, for the
first time in Tunisia, to an alliance between leftist and
Islamist political activists in the 18 October Committee (Ref
B). Redissi said this is merely an alliance of convenience,
as the two groups have such very different ideologies.
However, the extent of GOT repression has driven some
opposition activists together in an attempt to present a
united front calling for increased political freedom.
Redissi speculated that President Ben Ali might authorize an
Islamic association or party to respond to these pressures,
but Hajji and Jourchi said the required constitutional
amendment to allow religious-based political party was
unlikely.


6. (C) COMMENT: It is interesting to note that this group,
some of whom have close ties to Islamist activists, did not
feel there is widespread support in Tunisia for Islamists or
that they are well-organized. This greatly contrasts with
the fears from the secular side of the political spectrum.
As long as many secular Tunisians support the GOT argument
that Islamists and conservative religious thought represent a
threat to Tunisian society, this fear will limit the
development of grass-roots support for increased democracy in
Tunisia. As post's Freedom Agenda stresses, any political
reform here is dependent on increased freedom of expression
and association, so that public debate of Tunisia's political
future can begin. END COMMENT.
HUDSON