A/S WELCH AND FM ABDALLAH ON IRAN, ISRAEL, SUDAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TUNIS 000647

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA/MAG FOR LAWRENCE
NEA/FO FOR DONICK, CUTRONA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO KMPI TS
SUBJECT: A/S WELCH AND FM ABDALLAH ON IRAN, ISRAEL, SUDAN,
LEBANON

Classified By: Ambassador William Hudson for Reasons 1.4 b & d


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting March 15 in Tunis, FM Abdallah
told A/S David Welch that during a recent trip to Iran he
reinforced Tunisia's position supporting the peaceful use of
nuclear energy, but condemning any proliferation of nuclear
or chemical weapons. Abdallah claimed he petitioned his
Iranian interlocutors for moderation and dialogue. Abdallah
said that perhaps concern about Hamas' political future could
be eased if the party was to sign on to the Arab League's
Beirut declaration, despite A/S Welch's insistence that such
a move was necessary, but not sufficient, because it did not
explicitly recognize Israel or denounce terrorism. On a
potential UN peacekeeping force for Sudan, Abdallah said
Sudan's position seemed to fluctuate, and that Tunisia had
little influence on Sudan. Abdallah agreed with A/S Welch
that public opinion in Lebanon was strongly behind the
removal of President Lahoud, due largely to his ties to
Syria, but that the mechanism to do so remained to be found.
(Discussion of domestic issues will be covered septel.) End
Summary.

Iran
--------------


2. (C) Abdallah began by describing his February trip to
Iran. He said that the visit had been planned "for months"
and that during his trip he tried to explain the GOT position
on nuclear energy and proliferation both privately and
publicly at press conferences. Abdallah said the GOT is "for
the peaceful and economic use of nuclear power, but is
totally opposed to all proliferation of nuclear and chemical
weapons and other weapons of mass destruction." Abdallah
claimed that Iranian FM Manoucher Mottaki said Iran fully
agreed with this position. Abdallah said he "spoke about
Iran's recent actions and comments," and said that "current
events were dangerous for the whole region". Abdallah said
he tried to "push moderation and dialogue." Abdallah
reported that in meetings with Iranian President Ahmadinejad
and Expediency Council Chairman and former President
Rafsanjani, neither official mentioned the nuclear issue.
Abdallah concluded that it appeared there was no unified
policy on the nuclear issue among the Iranian leadership. He
speculated that part of the behavior stemmed from a
characteristic Iranian tendency to push the limits of
acceptable international behavior because of the "historic
megalomania of the Iranian regime," or that the Iranians are
simply lying. Finally, Abdallah noted that his conversations
offered no overt signs that Iran was preparing itself for an
aggressive move on the weapons front, at least "at the
psychological level." A/S Welch outlined for Abdallah USG
next steps on Iran in the UNSC.


3. (C) A/S Welch queried Abdallah whether Qatar, which is
currently on the UNSC, regularly consulted with other Arab
nations to form opinion on UNSC issues, given that Qatar
claims to represent Arab opinion on the council. Abdallah
said that he could not speak for other Arab countries, but
that Qatar had not consulted with Tunisia in the past. A/S
Welch urged that Tunisia should take the initiative to make
its views known to Qatar on relevant UNSC issues. Abdallah
said each Arab UNSC member seemed to exercise its
respresentation mandate differently. Algeria, for example,
liked to grandstand and go off in directions that did not
necessarily reflect Arab consensus. Qatar's approach was as
of yet unknown. A/S Welch added that Qatar was seeking a
Presidential statement on the recent incident in Jericho, and
that we found such a statement unacceptable.

Israel/Hamas
--------------


4. (C) Turning to Hamas and the March 28-29 Arab League
summit in Khartoum, A/S Welch asked what political standard
the AL would establish for Hamas. Noting the view that Hamas
should reinforce AL declarations supporting peace talks with
Israel, A/S Welch explained that such a policy would be
necessary, but not sufficient. None of these agreements
explicitly accepted the existence of Israel or excluded the
use of terrorism and violence as political tools.


5. (C) Abdallah countered that "for all Arab leaders, the
recognition of Israel exists -- because of the Beirut, Tunis,
and Algiers Summits." He noted that now, "no Arab leader can
make a speech and say that he doesn't recognize Israel." He
said that the best proof of this is that no Arab country
supports Hamas without conditions; everyone agrees that Hamas
has to "make necessary steps: they must reject violence and
adopt new conditions as a governing party." Abdallah

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commented that such an opinion is well known "in the
corridors" of the Arab League. He persisted that perhaps the
solution would be for Hamas to indicate recognition of Israel
through the adoption of the Beirut declaration, and
emphasized that this idea was "circulating among many Arab
delegations."

Sudan
--------------


6. (C) A/S Welch said the USG would like to see a UN
peacekeeping operation in Sudan that would reinforce the
current African Union peacekeeping mission. A/S Welch
mentioned that some Arab countries had asked for more time to
accept the idea of a Sudan UN PKO, but that the USG was
uncomfortable with this answer given the ongoing conflict and
the high casualties that would occur during such a delay,
especially in Darfur. He explained that Darfur was of
paramount importance in the U.S. both for humanitarian and
political reasons.


7. (C) Abdallah pointed out Tunisia's long history of
participation in international peacekeeping missions. He
said he was somewhat confused by Sudan's position, noting
that while in Cairo for the AL Foreign Ministers meeting in
early March, he listened to the Sudanese minister clearly
state that "should UN troops or a foreign party enter Sudan
to replace or consolidate the AU mission, Sudan would
withdraw from the AU." However, Abdallah said, three days
later he heard from EU Commissioner Solana that Sudanese
President Bashir, in a meeting with Deputy Secretary
Zoellick, agreed to a UN peacekeeping mission in Sudan. He
noted that Sudan's position "seems to change quite rapidly"
but that at any rate Sudan would likely want to wait until at
least July or August to have time to review the implications
of any UN proposal. A/S Welch noted that given ongoing
killings in Darfur, such a delay would be impossible for the
USG and the international community to accept. Responding to
a comment by A/S Welch raising the possibility of a limited,
planning and logisitics role for NATO in a Sudan PKO,
Abdallah said that even if NATO only provided logistical
support in Sudan, it would greatly complicate, or even render
impossible, a PKO proposal. Finally, Abdallah explained that
Tunisia had only minimal influence on Sudan, due largely to a
period of suspension of diplomatic relations that began in
1992 due to Sudan's alleged support of the banned Tunisian
Islamic party En-Nahdha, considered by the GOT to be a
terrorist organization. (NB: Diplomatic relations between
Sudan and Tunisia were reestablished in 2000). Abdallah also
commented that Libya was very concerned about Darfur, mainly
because of the role of Chad.

Syria/Lebanon
--------------


8. (C) A/S Welch highlighted clear national consensus in
Lebanon that President Lahoud, due to his ties to Syria,
should no longer remain in power. A/S Welch said the USG is
convinced such a move would help Lebanon. Abdallah said he
was also aware of that much of the Lebanese public supported
Lahoud's removal; all that remained was finding a mechanism
to do so.
HUDSON