A/S WELCH AND FM ABDALLAH: ISLAMISM, TUNISIA REFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TUNIS 000646

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA/MAG FOR LAWRENCE
NEA/FO FOR DONICK, CUTRONA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KMPI PHUM TS
SUBJECT: A/S WELCH AND FM ABDALLAH: ISLAMISM, TUNISIA REFORM

REF: TUNIS 425

Classified By: Ambassador William Hudson for Reasons 1.4 b & d


1. (C) Summary: In a March 15 meeting with A/S Welch, FM
Abdelwahab Abdallah discussed the "dangers of political
Islam", claiming there is no such thing as moderate Islamists
and accusing the West of having "insufficient knowledge of
Islam," and being misled by the "double-speak of Islamists"
who claim to respect democracy. Abdallah said the GOT did
not fear an Islamist political threat due to Tunisia's strong
economic and social performance, but predictably did not
respond to A/S Welch's challenge that Tunisia, precisely
because it did not fear Islamism, was in a better position
than some to open up politically. At a dinner for A/S Welch
hosted by the Ambassador, a group of eight Tunisians
representing civil society and business highlighted the fact
that the GOT does not offer any better explanation to its own
population about the reasons for continued political
dominance and social control. These interlocutors spoke
animatedly at the dinner about the need for greater freedom
of expression and the development of a new political elite
and confirmed that the greatest fear across all levels of
Tunisian society remains the power and degree of control of
the GOT itself. End Summary.


2. (C) At a March 15 meeting in Tunis, FM Abdallah stated
that the USG and the GOT "agree on almost everything, except
for one thing: Islamists." Abdallah then launched a
monologue, frequently heard from GOT officials, about the
dangers of political Islam. He said that there "is no such
thing as a moderate Islamist." He said once someone accepts
the ideology of Islam, it "governs all life." He claimed
Islam does not tolerate democracy, freedom or women's rights.
He said that is why the Tunisian constitution forbids
Islamist political parties. Abdallah suggested that if
Islamist parties were allowed to participate in democratic
elections, they would "automatically gain sympathy" due to
language of "divine will", and that they would win elections
due to voters "fear of God and hell". He said that on TV
debates these parties would invoke religious precepts, and
that no matter which parties ran, Islamists would always win.
Abdallah suggested that perhaps in 50 years Arab societies
would "develop to the point where voters would be more
educated and less prone to voting out of religious sympathy
or fear of going to hell," but that this was not currently
the case.


3. (C) Abdallah said the West was "mistaken" in its view of
Islamists for two reasons: it had insufficient knowledge of
Islam and the "duplicity of the double-speak of Islamists"
who claim to respect democratic values. He claimed there was
a great difference in what Islamists said publicly and their
private views and political goals.


4. (C) A/S Welch responded that it was difficult to speak
about Islamist politics without referring to specific
countries, as political scenarios varied widely in the
region. The USG feels some of the same discomfort concerning
Islamism in the region. He said despite accusations, the USG
does not support Islamic governments per se, although we do
have some relationships with them, e.g. in Turkey, which had
its own "unique brand of politics." (Abdallah countered that
the Turkish government could no longer be characterized as
Islamist). A/S Welch reminded Abdallah that political
openness could serve to "expose Islamist parties" as either
ineffective or duplicitous. He asserted that reform must
occur according to the unique situation in a given country,
and that "what we see in one country we don't recommend for
all." A/S Welch said Tunisia was correct in identifying
Islamist movements as a potential political threat, noting
for example that he believed Hamas probably had grander
political designs, extending perhaps to leading Palestinians
both in and outside the territories. A/S Welch continued
that it was the USG's intention not just to contain, but to
defeat such movements in a democratic way: they will fail
when their own people recognize their deficits.


5. (C) Reemphasizing that the political landscape is
drastically different across the MENA region, A/S Welch noted
that countries would have different reform approaches, but
hopefully the same destination: an open, democratic system.
In this regard, he noted that Tunisia enjoyed significant
social and economic strength, which in our view allows the
GOT to take some risks while undertaking political reforms.
He said given Tunisia's domestic strength and political
stability, the USG was puzzled as to why the pace of reform
was so slow, observing that Tunisia was "curiously closed in
some areas" despite "more room to maneuver" than other, less
politically stable, countries in the region.

TUNIS 00000646 002 OF 002




6. (C) Abdallah responded that the GOT was not afraid of
Islamists. He said given Tunisia's homogenous society,
women's rights, and strong social, economic, and education
performance, Islamism has "no room to prosper in Tunisia."
He said the GOT feared mainly terrorism. He said the GOT
feared links between some Tunisians, notably "released
prisoners", and Al Qaeda; the GOT "had to keep its eye on"
these Tunisians. (NB: Abdallah was likely referring to
recently released prisoners that were members of the banned
Tunisian Islamic political party En-Nahdha and other
recently released prisoners who had been arrested for
allegedly preparing to commit terrorist attacks. Ref A).


7. (C) Comment: Abdallah's comments were entirely consistent
with what we hear across the board from GOT officials. He
predictably did not respond to A/S Welch's comment that
Tunisia, precisely because it did not fear Islamism, was in a
better position than some to open up politically, except
unintentionally to validate it by reiterating Tunisia's
strengths and impermeability to extremism.


8. (C) Comment (cont'd): Similarly, the GOT does not offer
any better explanation to its own population about the
reasons for continued political dominance and social control.
At a dinner for A/S Welch hosted by the Ambassador, a group
of eight Tunisians representing civil society and business
spoke animatedly about the need for greater freedom of
expression and the need to develop a new political elite.
"The old dinosaurs are disappearing," with no new leadership
in the wings. Like the majority of well-educated Tunisians,
none advocated an Islamic government, but notably, neither
did they gauge the threat of radical Islam in Tunisia to be
high. They had the usual theories about increased religious
observance among Muslims in Tunisia, (e.g. lack of moral
leadership from the family and from government, rebellion
against an older, secular generation, a sense of Muslim
victimization in the world) but did not believe that fear of
political Islam should retard reform efforts here. In fact, a
woman business leader present claimed that should Islamists
ever gain strength in Tunisia, women would take to the
streets to thwart any attempts to limit their freedom.


9. (C) Comment (cont'd): The dinner confirmed that the
greatest fear across all levels of Tunisian society is the
power of the GOT itself. All guests cited examples of the
expansive, punitive powers of government authorities.
However, when asked by A/S Welch to name the specific red
lines set by the GOT, even these comparatively outspoken
interlocutors were visibly reluctant to voice what they all
knew. After A/S Welch repeated the question for a third
time, a political science professor finally blurted, "you
cannot challenge the President, his family, or the police."
Met with silence, he quickly added that any public criticism
of Islam was also strictly taboo. Relieved of this slight
changes of subject, other immediately retorted, "but you
could criticize religion privately, just not on TV or in
public." End Comment.
HUDSON