Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TUNIS2661
2006-10-31 11:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tunis
Cable title:  

MOVEMENT OF 18 OCTOBER: WEAK, DIVIDED, BUT

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM KMPI TS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0008
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTU #2661/01 3041122
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 311122Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY TUNIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2115
INFO RUCNMGH/MAGHREB COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 002661 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA/MAG FOR HARRIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KMPI TS
SUBJECT: MOVEMENT OF 18 OCTOBER: WEAK, DIVIDED, BUT
OPTIMISTIC ON ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY

REF: A. TUNIS 387

B. TUNIS 224

Classified By: CDA David Ballard for Reasons 1.4 b & d

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 002661

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA/MAG FOR HARRIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KMPI TS
SUBJECT: MOVEMENT OF 18 OCTOBER: WEAK, DIVIDED, BUT
OPTIMISTIC ON ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY

REF: A. TUNIS 387

B. TUNIS 224

Classified By: CDA David Ballard for Reasons 1.4 b & d


1. (C) Summary. The Movement of 18 October, a disparate group
of opposition political leaders and activists promoting
freedom of expression, association, and amnesty for political
prisoners, recently marked its one year anniversary. While
movement leaders claim the group has sent a strong message to
the GOT, and has significant support at home and abroad, the
minimal domestic impact the group made by undertaking a
month-long hunger strike in October 2005 has largely faded.
Movement leaders admit that the group has not been as
effective as they had hoped, but they plan to continue and
strengthen activities. Meanwhile, internal disagreements,
particularly on the inclusion of Islamist elements in the
Movement, threaten to fracture the group. End Summary.

-------------- --------------
Weak Year for 18 October, but Hopes for the Future
-------------- --------------


2. (C) In October 2005, in the run-up to the UN World Summit
on the Information Society, with the world's attention turned
ever so slightly to Tunisia, eight opposition political
leaders and civil society activists went on a month-long
hunger strike to demand three things: freedom of association,
freedom of expression, and a general amnesty for political
prisoners (reftels). Committees formed throughout Tunisia
and abroad to support the group and the hunger strike was
highlighted in international media.


3. (C) One year later, the group's limited popularity has
waned, and, given the dearth of independent domestic news
media, one would be hard pressed to find a Tunisian on the
street who has even heard of the Movement of 18 October.
Legal opposition party PDP President and 18 October leader
Nejib Chebbi recently told PolOff that there had been
"weakness" in the ability of 18 October to reach out beyond
the small Tunisian activist community, while simultaneously
optimistically claiming that the group would press on. He

said that the Movement had succeeded in that the GOT realized
that 18 October was an important, new, and "dangerous"
phenomenon in Tunisia, in that activists of all political
stripes joined together to support the Movement's goals.

--------------
Anniversary Meeting
--------------


4. (C) On October 18, on the one-year anniversary of the
original hunger strike, approximately 200 people, according
to Chebbi, attended an 18 October event at PDP headquarters
in Tunis. Over the past year, according to fellow 18 October
leader Khamis Chammari, the GOT has blocked 36 meetings of
the group. However, the anniversary event was allowed to
take place, albeit under heavy police presence. Chebbi said
that the group had informed the Interior Ministry in advance,
and sent out invitations for the event. (In the past, 18
October leaders have reported that their meetings were
organized and conducted more or less secretly.) One former
Islamist An-Nahdha party leader, Ali Laaridh, was reportedly
blocked from entering the meeting.

--------------
18 October Structure: Forum and Collective
--------------


5. (C) According to Chebbi, Movement leaders have developed
two separate entities under the 18 October banner: the Forum
of 18 October and the Collective of 18 October. The Forum
was envisaged as a space for debate and scholarly discussion
about political and social topics deemed crucial to Tunisia's
future. Chebbi said proposed topics included women's rights,
Islam and the state, and the penal code. Two Forum
discussions had taken place in the past year, with
approximately 80 people attending each session, which were
moderated by university professors.


6. (C) The Collective of 18 October, comprised of 22
individuals, including the eight original 18 October hunger
strikers and members the committee originally formed to
support them, is responsible for the group's policy and
actions. Prominent leaders in the group besides Chebbi
include long-time activist Khemais Chemmari, and opposition
party Democratic Forum for Labor and Freedoms (FDTL)
Secretary General Mustapha Ben Jaafar. Mokhtar Yahyaoui, a

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former judge turned activist, who was among the original
hunger strikes, left the collective early in 2006. He told

PolOff that he left due to the inability of the group to
mobilize any popular support, and to a distaste for the
political machinations of the group's leadership. Chebbi
countered privately that Yahyaoui "doesn't work well with
others", and claimed that his departure was primarily for
personal, not policy, reasons.

--------------
Islamist Question
--------------


7. (C) The group's alliance between secularist opposition
parties and Islamists has proven to be the most contentious
issue facing the group, potentially threatening to fracture
the Movement. Several prominent Islamists, including Mohamed
Nouri, president of the International Association for the
Support of Political Prisoners (AISPP),were among the
original 18 October strikers. Since then, An-Nahdha leaders
such as Ali Laaridh and Zied Doulatli have joined the
movement. 18 October leaders such as Mustapha Ben Jaafar
have responded to criticism from anti-Islamist quarters by
explicitly stating that any political party, including
Islamists, sharing the 18 October goals could join the
movement, although he excluded "extremists." In the months
after, however, internal splits in the Collective on the
Islamist question began forming, with some members fearing
that Islamists were only using the Movement for political
gain. These members noted that the Islamist representatives
refused to engage in any debate that would force them to
define specific political platforms.


8. (C) Chebbi and Chammari have both admitted separately that
the Islamist question remains a "grey area," and was a source
of internal friction. Chammari told PolCouns that, while he
saw the alliance with Islamists as a tactical necessity, but
something to avoid in the long term, Chebbi was more
comfortable with the "grey area" of the Islamist alliance,
and saw the potential of a longer-term strategic alliance
with Islamists. Previously, 18 October members had said that
the raison d'etre of the group was the realization of its
three demands, and that once achieved, the political alliance
would dissolve. However, Chebbi recently told PolOff for the
first time that he could see 18 October potentially growing
to be an opposition political force in itself.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (C) Despite Chebbi's forecast, 18 October will more
likely continue on its path to anonymity than become a strong
opposition party. It is difficult to determine which is more
constrained: the operating space of opposition political
parties or the average Tunisian's interest in these parties.
Although the movement may not be able to mobilize widespread
support given the constrictive political climate in Tunisia,
their demands are valid and track with USG goals for
political reform in Tunisia. The GOT, which suprisingly
allowed an anniversary event of the group, has benefited from
the internal schism over Islamists in the Movement, a fact
not lost on 18 October leaders.



BALLARD